Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 222143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
543 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Quieter weather Wednesday before showers return Thursday.
Cooler and less humid are the themes through the weekend.


With the cold front passing this evening, this will end the
chance of measurable precipitation by mid evening. Current
surface analysis places the front in central Ohio as of 21Z
with decent forward movement. Updated the grids to reflect the
latest trends and have the entire region dry by midnight.
Locations in eastern Ohio and the northern West Virginia
panhandle should not see any more precip.

A break from the high humidity and rainfall Wednesday. There
will be a decent cu field, however it will be noticeably less
humid as dewpoints are forecast to be in the 50s!


Northwest flow aloft allows ripples of energy to round the base
of the H5 trough axis positioned over the eastern United States.
Plenty of low level moisture in place through Thursday evening
to warrant the mention of scattered showers especially for our
northern counties closer to Lake Erie. The strongest wave
crosses Thursday afternoon, which should bring showers given
cooling aloft to the Mason / Dixon line. Future shifts may have
to extend the mention of showers to northern West Virginia and
western Maryland. Do not expect to see much sunshine Thursday as
any heating will fill the sky with a stratocu field.

Daytime showers will wane with sunset while anticyclonic
vorticity advection. This will start the run of a dry weather
the balance of the short term.


- Pleasant weather projected
- Dry most of the extended
- Below normal temps

The departing mid level trough and associated low pressure system
owes to several nice weather days late this week through the
weekend.  Surface high pressure builds south from the Great Lakes
and with northerly flow on the front end expect below normal
temperatures to continue into the middle of next week.  Toward the
end of the forecast /next tuesday/, moisture from the Gulf
resulting from Harvey may provide a canopy of high clouds, but
still plenty of time to resolve that over the coming days.


Brief IFR/MVFR weather could impact terminals through 1Z as
showers and thunderstorms pass. Once the cold front rolls
through this evening VFR weather will return. There is a low
probability of fog development during the predawn hours.

No widespread IFR weather is forecast.




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