Area Forecast Discussion
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102
FXUS61 KPBZ 261819
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
219 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather can be expected until the approach of low
pressure on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The surface boundary slowly dragging southward is expected to
stall over the PA/WV border while a weak shortwave shifts across
the southern CWA to help induce weak convection. Thus, slight to
chance pops remain across the southern most zones where relatively
greater instability develops. Have used the model blend solution
to acquire temperatures and dew points since latest models differ
on placement of aforementioned boundary. Temperatures will be
above normal, but less humid conditions are expected than
previous several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Guidance continues to keep the stalled boundary over the southeast
zones and initiate convection over the most unstable areas while
another weak shortwave crosses the region.

Otherwise, Zonal flow/flat ridging should maintain dry, but
continued warm weather through much of Wednesday. Thereafter,
POPs will be on the increase with the approach of low pressure on
Thursday. For now, highest QPF resides over the southeast portions
of the forecast area where the track of the low is forecast to
progress.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A series of shortwaves and development of a broad, but shallow
trough over the Eastern CONUS is forecast to support periodic rain
chances and seasonal temperatures through the weekend. Ridging
should return dry weather by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue through Wednesday
with building high pressure N of I 70. A weak surface boundary
south of I 70 could result in a few showers through early tonight,
so maintained a VCSH mention at MGW. Patchy MVFR fog is possible
tonight, though expected cloud cover should limit this potential.

.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure should return potential restrictions late Thursday
and Friday, with upper troughing maintaining periodic restriction
chances through the weekend.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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