Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 300747
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
347 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND AND DRIER
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH RIDING THE WARM CONVEYOR NORTH
UP AND OVER THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITATION LARGELY BEYOND OF THE RIDGES SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PASS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND WITH
A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION PROGGED...SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN PROGGING
RELATIVELY WEAK BULK SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS. STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF WE DID GET MORE SUNSHINE/HEATING THAN EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DESPITE CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE AND LONGWAVE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ITS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOCUSED ALONG THIS
FEATURE...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCE IS MINIMAL AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CAPPING OFF ANY
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. WITH DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT COMPARED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AS A RESULT...THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE SOME DRY DAYS. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY
PARTICULAR POINT WHEN RAIN IS LIKELY...BUT SO FAR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT SHIFT MUCH DURING THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY
DAWN...WITH ZZV/FKL EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. WILL NEED
TO WATCH POTENTIAL OF LIFR FOG CREEPING INTO ZZV FROM THE
WEST...BUT REMAINING TERMINALS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A
FOG THREAT. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO PROMOTE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
LOCATION TO ADD PREVAILING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE
STUCK WITH VCTS. WIND GUSTS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DROP
AFTER SUNSET.

.OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A ROUND OF IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES...AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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