Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 260418
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1218 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING RAIN AND A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURES AS COOLER AIR HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE. RAISED MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL.
NO OTHER CHANGES AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

DEW POINTS IN THE 30S ARE NOW COMING INTO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OHIO...AND POISED TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE REPLACED BY FAIRLY BRISK
OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH WILL USHER IN SOMEWHAT
COLDER...BUT MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGH MORNING. INCREASED TURBULENT
MIXING SHOULD KEEP DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS UP OVERNIGHT AND A LACK OF
LAYER RH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO BE ALL ENCOMPASSING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...CLEAR SKIES WITH NO FOG WILL BE THE RULE
BY SUN RISE.

CLEAR SKIES WITH STRONG DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY. A HANDFUL OF FAIR WEATHER/FLAT CUMULUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL DRIFTS FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING FLOW WITH A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURE TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL. NEARLY
ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HAVE SPED UP ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIP...AND HAVE
NOW BROUGHT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 12Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY IN
ZANESVILLE SOUNDING...AND HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR PORTIONS OF OHIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS WITH FRO PA AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. BY FRIDAY DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST...THEN RAMP UP AGAIN
BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS TO RETURN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CU DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BE SLOWER TO
EXIT. FOR FORECAST WILL MENTION CU AT FKL AND DUJ.


OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









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