Area Forecast Discussion
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626
FXUS61 KPBZ 230510
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
110 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide a dry Tuesday with seasonal
temperatures. Unsettled weather for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A cirrus shield well out ahead of a system riding up the Middle
Atlantic will continue to push northeastward through the area
overnight into early Tuesday. In advance of this shield of
clouds, temperatures have already fallen off quite
precipitously, which means that even with clouds moving in, lows
still look a-ok.

Deep moisture associated with the system moving up the coast
really never looks to make retrogressive progress into the CWA
on Tuesday. The upper jet axis likewise would not favor it doing
so as it aligns generally in line with the Laurel Highlands.
Thus, any rain showers seem unlikely to make it west of maybe
Tucker/Garrett County on Tuesday and Tuesday night. High clouds
will be around in the rest of the CWA, however overall dry
weather will continue. Fries

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Anomalously deep mid level cyclone moves slowly east with
outer band of showers reaching parts of eastern Ohio by late
morning then taking its sweet old time before reaching western
Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia toward supper time. With
plenty of moisture in the column, do not expect to see any
convective activity as it moves through. Under heavy showers
due to the slow northward propagation and easterly wind
component /upslope/, far eastern areas may see rainfall amounts
approach an inch. Otherwise, look for a half inch less through
Wednesday night.

The occluded mature system oozes eastward Thursday with the
warm conveyor belt spreading more showers across the region
during the day. GFS is more optimistic than the NAM with the
plume of showers residing in central Pennsylvania and us under a
dry slot. With the difference being only a few hundred miles
and given the numerical NCEP suite struggles with these
systems, low confidence in the forecast for this time period,
however somewhere its going to rain so continued with likely
pops.

H5 low continues to move east Thursday night, however BUFR
soundings show still portray a lot of moisture so clouds will
hang tough. Wrap around showers will continue, but rain rates
won`t be as high.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:
- Active weather regime
- Temps right where they should be
- Memorial Day Weekend BBQ plans? Monitor forecast!

The weather pattern remains active right through the long term as a
series of system traverse the region making people dodge rain drops
this upcoming holiday weekend.  The long term starts out quiet with
a transitory surface anticyclone Friday, however that is quickly
shunted off to the east by an incoming mid level shortwave trough.
The aforementioned shortwave trough is slated to arrive Saturday
night into Sunday. Still timing differences as one would expect this
far out, but whenever it passes expect a several hour period of
showers and perhaps thunderstorms. Precipitable water peaks around
1.5" and with 30 to 40 kts of flow, therefore high water does not
appear a concern at this juncture.  Severe weather threat is low as
well given uncertainty with the timing.  If it passes during peak
heating hours, there would be a low threat for damaging winds. High
pressure builds is forecast to build in just time for Memorial Day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period under low
level ridging as mid/high clouds increase on the nrn side of a
surface low tracking toward the Mid Atlantic region.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely late Wed thru Thu, and are possible Thu
night thru Sat, with crossing low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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