Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 080211 AAB
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
911 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will result in a return to cold
temperatures and periodic snow showers through the end of the
week. More widespread precipitation is likely Sunday with
crossing low pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
910pm update...only change to previous update is a refreshing of
overnight lows.

Previous discussion...

Clouds should continue to increase tonight with the approach and
passage of a shortwave as a main upper low moves into Ontario.
Deep layer moisture is lacking, so little if any precip is
expected. Lows should be near the seasonal averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper troughing extending from the Canadian upper low, and cold
advection, should persist across the Eastern CONUS through
Friday. The boundary layer flow is progged to remain WSW Thursday,
keeping any lake enhanced snow showers mainly north of the
forecast area.

A weak surface trough is expected to cross the area Thursday
night and Friday morning, resulting in veering boundary layer
winds to the WNW, a brief increase in moisture, heightening of
the inversion levels, and re enforcing cold advection. This
should result in the best potential for snow showers across much
of the area. Some lake enhancement is expected especially for
areas north of I 80, where the best potential exists to see a few
inches of snow. Will maintain the HWO mention for this potential
where an advisory may eventually be needed. While snow showers
are likely in the ridges, the flow is not optimal for significant
accumulations.

Building high pressure and backing winds should bring an end to
the snow showers Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures should
average around 10 degrees below seasonal levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A midwestern trough and associated surface low is progged for
approach and passage Sunday and Sunday night, with a period of
snow likely. Persistent upper troughing across the Northeast CONUS
should maintain periodic snow shower chances and colder than
average temperatures for the rest of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
General VFR will continue overnight. Stratocu deck will begin to
cover the area from north to south tomorrow morning as strong cold
air advection ensues. This will lower all ports to mvfr by
afternoon. Expect west to southwest winds under 10 KTs overnight,
increasing to over 10 Kts with gusts over 20 to 25Kts Thursday as
a cold front crosses the region.

.OUTLOOK...
Scattered restrictions in snow showers are expected into Saturday.
The next chance for widespread IFR will be with snow Sunday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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