Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 250956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
256 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...A quiet weather pattern is
in store for the next few days. There will be a weak disturbance
embedded in a westerly flow today which may produce some cumulus
buildups and possibly a few sprinkles over the central WA Cascade
east slopes this afternoon and evening. Will leave those in the
forecast as the day shift had them. Otherwise the main concern
during the next few days...going into the extended forecast...will
be the hot temperatures that are expected. However...the models have
backed off on the heat so it will not be quite as hot as previously
forecast. Maximum temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s today
in the lower elevations, but then it will cool off a few degrees for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will be mostly light and under 10 kts
the each day except for the eastern Columbia River Gorge and the
Kittitas Valley where breezy to windy conditions will develop each
afternoon and evening...especially in the gorge. 88

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night through Monday...High pressure will
dominate area weather through the first half of the long term
period. Wednesday night a weak wave will cross the area but will
have little effect on our area. Any showers will remain well to our
north near or above the Canadian border. After the wave leaves, a
ridge of high pressure over the Western CONUS will strengthen
further and fair and dry weather will continue through Friday night
with temperatures increasing each day. Thursday will be in the 90s
with mid 80s to lower 90s in the mountains. Friday will be in the
mid 90s to lower 100s with mid 80s to lower 90s in the mountains.
Saturday through Monday models agree in having a trough move into
the area and flattening the ridge to our south, though the models
disagree as to the details. The GFS is strongest with the trough and
hints at some monsoon moisture from the desert southwest getting
pulled into the southern fringe of our area late Friday night and
Saturday morning and out of the area by the afternoon. The ECMWF and
Canadian models do not show this moisture. Even if the GFS is right,
the timing is bad for the moisture to produce any showers or
thunderstorms so have kept the previous dry forecast. A very dry
west to southwest flow continues through Sunday night so fair and
mostly clear weather will continue. Models disagree further on
Monday. The GFS brings a couple of waves through the trough and
strengthens it with some showers along the Washington Cascades late
Sunday night and Monday. The ECMWF and Canadian have a weaker wave
arriving Monday afternoon with little to no precipitation in the
Washington Cascades. Have kept the current dry forecast for now
until models come into better agreement. Temperatures Saturday will
be a couple of degrees cooler than Friday and will be mainly in the
mid to upper 90s with mid 80s to lower 90s in the mountains.
Saturday will drop to the mid 80s to lower 90s with lower to mid 80s
in the mountains and Monday will drop another couple of degrees to
the 80s with 70s and lower 80s in the mountains. Perry


.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR conditions will continue for the next 24
hours. Expect mostly clear skies with a few mid level clouds at or
above 15K feet agl over most of the area. In the mountains...
especially the Washington Cascades...may develop cumulus buildups
this afternoon and evening above 7K feet agl. These lower clouds may
affect KYKM. Winds will generally remain below 15 kts except at KDLS
which will have winds of 10-20 kts with higher gusts after 21Z. Perry


PDT  95  62  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  96  68  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  98  64  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  98  64  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  97  65  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  94  66  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  93  50  87  47 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  92  57  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  95  56  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  94  66  87  64 /   0   0   0   0


.PDT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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