Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 191433
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
730 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE WEAK SYSTEM COMING THROUGH LATER TODAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. SOME PRECIPITATION IS CROSSING THE
CASCADES THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL REMAIN DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST
WASHINGTON...WHERE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AND BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS
INCREASE. DMH

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 426 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER THE REGION AND CWA PROVIDING DRY WEATHER.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON CAUSING THE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
IT AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADES AND THE
EAST/NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
FAIRLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. THEREFORE THERE IS NOT A NEED TO BE
CONCERNED WITH HEAVY WINTER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CWA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
RAPIDLY AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CWA. A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR
AND HIGHER SNOW LEVELS FOR MONDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS ON
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
50S AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 88

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE
UP TO A QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND UP TO A HALF INCH
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND 7000 FEET, BUT
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
THERE MAY BE UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW SOUTH OF BEND THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA AND WHILE THE
FRONT WILL BE IN IDAHO BY TUESDAY NIGHT, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WHILE THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN WILL BE DRY.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. MODELS SHOW A RIDGE FORMING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IS UNCLEAR. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRY
LULL IN THE WEATHER. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT. THE
ECMWF BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A STEADY
STREAM OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A
STRONGER RIDGE AND HOLDS THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL FRIDAY
WHEN A FRONT AND STRONG TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT THAT AS IS
FOR THE MOST PART UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. PERRY

AVIATION...12Z TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 15000
FEET WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT 5000-10000
FEET BY 16Z. THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 03Z THEN BEGIN
CLEARING, BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR AFTER 06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 KTS THROUGH 17Z THEN BEGIN INCREASING, BECOMING WESTERLY AT 15 TO
25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES FROM 21Z THROUGH 04Z
WHEN WINDS WILL DROP BELOW 15 KTS. KPDT, KPSC AND KALW WILL HOLD ON
TO THE STRONGER WINDS THROUGH 06Z-10Z. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  63  36  63  41 /  10  10   0   0
ALW  65  38  64  46 /  10  10   0   0
PSC  67  39  67  43 /  10  10   0   0
YKM  61  34  65  40 /  10  20   0  10
HRI  67  37  67  41 /  10  10   0   0
ELN  59  36  63  39 /  10  20   0  10
RDM  60  25  66  34 /  10  10   0   0
LGD  66  34  61  38 /  20  20   0   0
GCD  62  29  61  35 /  10  10   0   0
DLS  61  39  69  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

THREAT INDEX
TODAY : GREEN
SUNDAY : GREEN
MONDAY : GREEN

GREEN: NONE OR LIMITED NEED FOR WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES.
YELLOW: A FEW WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.
RED: NUMEROUS WATCHES, WARNINGS, OR ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OR IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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