Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 232315 AAB
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
414 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG JET AND VORT CENTER
ROTATING THROUGH THE LOW CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE. THIS
BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BASED ON DYNAMICS ALOFT...MAINLY NORTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON. AFTERWARDS LOOKS AS THOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL
BE MAINLY SHOWERS OVER THE CASCADES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
WESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A DRYING TREND WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH A COOL AIRMASS
OVERHEAD HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S. DRY WESTERLY FLOW
FRIDAY THEN THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN SATURDAY. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.  94

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN BE OVER THE AREA AND A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT IF ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY AS THE WAVE TRAVELS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO HAVE
ONLY INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
BUT AGAIN...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 15 MPH.  COBB

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE AREA
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
TAF SITES WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS 10-20 KTS
GUSTING 20-30 KTS. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.  82

&&

.FIRE WX...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN OREGON AND
INTO SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. HAVE CANCELLED
THE RED FLAG WARNINGS OVER ZONES 610...611...640 AND 642 AS MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED NORTH OF THESE ZONES. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS THIS
EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ABUNDANT LIGHTNING. RED FLAG
WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. DMH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  78  49  83 /  40  10   0   0
ALW  55  78  54  83 /  40  10   0   0
PSC  56  82  52  85 /  40  10   0   0
YKM  52  77  51  83 /  40  10   0   0
HRI  54  80  51  86 /  40  10   0   0
ELN  50  73  49  80 /  40  10  10  10
RDM  40  73  39  81 /  20   0   0   0
LGD  48  72  43  79 /  30  10   0   0
GCD  46  74  43  82 /  30   0   0   0
DLS  55  76  53  84 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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