Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 292130 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
225 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LATEST RADAR WAS SHOWING
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING WAS COMBINING WITH MOISTURE ALONG WITH A
DISTURBANCE TO CREATE SHRA/TSRA THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE
MODELS WERE FOCUSING ON THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY TO BE AROUND CENTRAL
OREGON THIS EVENING AND A CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS WHEN LINGERING
CONVECTION COULD REMAIN INTACT AS A MOISTURE BAND MOVES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE FORECAST SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA WERE
EXPANDED ACROSS THE REGION PRIMARILY OVER NORTH CENTRAL OREGON AND
OVER THE BLUE/WALLOWAS. AS THIS BAND MOVES AWAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/TSRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
SATURDAY. WHEN THIS ROUND OF PCPN MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT A SUBTLE
WARM FRONT DRIFTS NORTH AND MEANDERS IN A WEST TO EAST LINE ACROSS
OUR AREA SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NEAR THIS LINE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED
SLIGHTLY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST COMING INLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS
MODELS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PUMP UP AND PROVIDE
VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SUNDAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW. AS SUCH EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON MONDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN INTO
A TROUGH AND CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP SOME UNSTABLE AND
COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGINNING THURSDAY AS TO THE POSITION OF THE
TROUGH AND WHETHER IT CLOSES OFF INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BEYOND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT EXPECT SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME LOCAL MVRF CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY AT
KRDM...KBDN...KPDT AND KALW.  WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT
FOR THIS EVENING AT KDLS WHERE NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  60  85  58  84 /  20  20  20  20
ALW  64  88  62  87 /  30  20  20  20
PSC  61  91  59  90 /  20  10  10  20
YKM  60  87  58  85 /  20  10   0  20
HRI  62  90  60  88 /  20  20  10  20
ELN  57  85  55  86 /  20  10   0  20
RDM  50  82  48  82 /  40  20  20  20
LGD  55  82  53  83 /  30  30  30  30
GCD  54  85  52  90 /  30  30  30  20
DLS  61  87  59  89 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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