Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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000
FXUS66 KPDT 282201 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
300 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
A RAPID WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPS WILL INCREASE 5-10 DEGREES
WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY
DRY AND EXPECT LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES SWINGS EACH DAY.
GUIDANCE SHOWING 40-50 DEGREE SPREADS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. BY FRIDAY MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA TOWARD OREGON. COULD SEE
SOME LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OREGON.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS 90-105 UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. 94

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY..A STRONG RIDGE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE GFS BEGINS TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN OREGON FRIDAY...REACHING THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF OUR AREA SOUTH OF BEND THEN MOVES THE MOISTURE
FURTHER NORTH AND INCREASES THE DEPTH OF IT EACH DAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SAME WIND FLOW PATTERN
AS THE GFS BUT TRANSPORTS LESS MOISTURE. I AM UNCERTAIN HOW
QUICKLY THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DECIDED
TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN OREGON
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE DRY SO ANY LIGHTNING MAY CREATE FIRE
STARTS. THE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN IN CENTRAL OREGON FRIDAY AND
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS SISTERS TO THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS
AND BLUE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY...THEN FARTHER NORTH SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. I REMOVED NIGHT TIME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT SINCE THERE ARE NO JET STREAKS OR ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT NIGHT TIME CONVECTION. COONFIELD

&&

.AVIATION...0Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS AND A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS EAST OF KALW AND KPDT THAT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  76

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  52  93  58  98 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  56  93  62  99 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  51  95  58 100 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  52  92  58  97 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  51  95  57 100 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  51  93  56  97 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  41  92  49  97 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  43  89  50  94 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  43  91  49  96 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  96  61 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

94/76/76



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