Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 220845
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
345 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored just off the east coast through
midweek. A backdoor cold front over New England may approach the
area, before moving northward as a warm front Friday into Friday
night. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes region will bring
a strong cold front through the area on Saturday. High pressure
builds in from the west late in the weekend, before moving offshore
early next week, while another warm front approaches the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An impulse traveling in the westerly mid level flow will pass
overhead early today. We are anticipating a mid level cloud deck to
cover much of eastern Pennsylvania and northern and central New
Jersey this morning along with parts of northeastern Maryland,
Delaware and southern New Jersey. Where there is a lack of mid level
clouds there should be a fair amount of cirrus to limit the
sunshine. Also, spotty light rain showers are expected from the
Poconos and the Lehigh Valley into northern New Jersey.

As the impulse moves away to our east this afternoon, we are
forecasting a decrease in cloud cover.

High pressure at the surface is expected to be located off the
Middle Atlantic Coast today. The high should maintain a light
southwest to south surface flow of mild air in our region. High
temperatures should favor the 60s except in the elevated terrain of
the Poconos and northwestern New Jersey where maximum readings are
expected to be in the upper 50s. Also, the ocean water temperatures
along the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware remain in the 40s, so
temperatures at the shore will likely get no higher than the 50s.

The record maximum temperatures for today are listed in the climate
section of this product. It appears as though most locations will
fall about 3 to 6 degrees short of their record based on our latest
projections. However, Mount Pocono may be an exception. We are
forecasting a high of 57 for that location and the record is 56.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
The surface high is forecast to begin moving farther out to sea
tonight. However, it should keep a light southwest to south surface
flow in our region. The increase in low level moisture may result in
the development of low clouds and patchy fog late tonight.

Temperatures are expected to remain mild for this time of the year.
Minimum readings should favor the 40s in northeastern Maryland,
Delaware, New Jersey and much of eastern Pennsylvania.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A more active pattern is shaping up for the Thursday thru Tuesday
period, with the most impactful weather expected on Saturday in
association with a strong cold, preceded by the potential record
warmth Thursday into Saturday.

In terms of the mid-level pattern, a split flow regime will
begin to consolidate as phasing takes place over the upper
Mississippi Valley on Saturday. In spite of a couple fast moving
shortwave impulses near the area Thursday into Friday, 500 hPa
heights will continue to rise, reaching 570 Decameters by
Saturday. A more zonal pattern takes hold Sunday night into
Tuesday, as temperatures return to near normal for a change.
Several shortwave disturbances embedded within the zonal flow
will increase chances for generally light precipitation during
this time frame.

Thursday and Friday will feature a warm front just north of the
area, with diffuse shortwave energy moving along it. This will
promote the chance for scattered rain showers, mainly north of
an I-195 to PA Turnpike line. In fact, there could be a rumble
of thunder both days, especially on Thursday. Also, there is
the potential for record highs on both Thursday and Friday.
Given the proximity of a backdoor front, which may make it into
northern NJ on Friday, in addition to increased cloud cover,
record warmth potential is greater on Thursday. Finally, there
is the potential for some patchy fog both Thursday and Friday
mornings.

Saturday and Sunday...Saturday could be an active day as a
strong cold front moves through the region. We should be within
the warm sector, and the synoptic pattern is favorable for at
least a fine line of convection to move through much of the
area. Model soundings show a modest shear-low CAPE environment,
in addition to negative Showalter indices. While this is still
a ways out, there is at least a chance of thunder, and this
continues to be reflected in the forecast. In addition, some
heavier downpours are possible, with the potential for rainfall
amounts to approach one inch, especially closer to the Poconos.
Once again, record warmth is possible within the warm sector on
Saturday. If the timing of the system holds, fair weather is in
store for Sunday, with a return to near normal temperatures, and
gusty west-northwest winds.

Looking ahead to Monday and Tuesday, several shortwaves will
interact with a nearby frontal boundary, offering additional
chances of light precipitation. Details in timing and coverage
are low at this time, so the forecast reflects a general slight
chance of showers during this period. We expect temperatures to
continue near average as mentioned earlier.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR conditions are expected for today into early tonight with mainly
mid and high level clouds overhead. Ceilings should be 6000 feet or
greater. Decreasing cloud cover is forecast for this afternoon and
this evening.

Increasing low level moisture late tonight may result in the
development of low clouds and some fog. There is the potential for
MVFR and IFR conditions at that time.

A light southwest to south wind is anticipated to develop for today
at speeds around 4 to 8 knots. The wind should become light and
variable at most locations for tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday...Potential for MVFR/IFR in early morning clouds and
fog, otherwise, VFR. Southwest wind gusts to 20 knots possible
in the afternoon.

Thursday night through Saturday...There is the potential for
MVFR/IFR at times, especially Thursday night through Friday
night with a warm front nearby, and again on Saturday with
showers and potential thunderstorms ahead of a cold front.
Winds out of the south on Saturday could gust to at least
20 knots.

Saturday night and Sunday...Becoming VFR Saturday night
with gusty west-northwest winds anticipated into Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure located off the Middle Atlantic Coast today should
maintain a southwest to south flow over the coastal waters of New
Jersey and Delaware for today and tonight. Wind speeds and gusts
should remain mostly less than 15 knots. Wave heights on our ocean
waters are forecast to range from 2 to 3 feet. Waves on Delaware Bay
are anticipated to be 2 feet or less.

OUTLOOK...

Sub-SCA conditions are forecast Thursday into Friday. SCA possible
Friday night into Saturday, with gales possible Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High temperature records for Wednesday-Saturday. Although most
of these records will probably remain intact, the greatest
potential to break a few of these records will be on Thursday.

Wednesday 2/22    Thursday 2/23   Friday 2/24   Saturday 2/25

ACY 68-1991       72-1985         75-1985       77-1930

PHL 68-1997/1974  75-1874         74-1985       79-1930

ILG 69-1997/1974  72-1985         78-1985       78-1930

ABE 68-1974       71-1985         76-1985       74-1930

TTN 66-1997       74-1874         74-1985       76-1930

GED 72-1997       67-1985/1990    72-1961       76-1975

RDG 70-1974       72/1932/1922    77-1985       77-1930

MPO 56-1997       60-1977         60-1984       70-1930

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Franck
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Franck
Aviation...Franck/Iovino
Marine...Franck/Iovino
Climate...Staff



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