Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 272035 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
234 PM MDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night. Expect a significant
pattern change starting tonight. A very moist Pacific system will
move through the area starting late tonight and continue through
early Friday evening. Look for 0.40 to 0.60 inches of
precipitation across much of the area Friday. The Upper Snake
Highlands and the Caribou Highlands will see 0.60 to 0.80 inches
of rain with higher amounts along the Wyoming border. Snow levels
will start around 10000 feet before dropping to around 9000 feet.
Expect around 2 to 5 inches of snow above 9000 feet particularly
for the Central Mountains. Expect very little precipitation
Saturday just some lingering showers over the Upper Snake
Highlands. Another very moist system starts to move into the area
late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures will be
slightly above normal Friday before rising to 10 to 15 degrees
above normal on Saturday. Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday night. Active weather will
continue into early next week as forcing from an upper trough pushes
across the Great Basin northeastward into Idaho. GFS/ECMWF support
widespread precip over the CWA Sunday and Sunday night. Trough is
expected to fill as it passes, but plenty of moisture is coming with
the system. Models support a drying trend on Monday, though GFS
hangs on to a bit of precip over the Central Mountains. Another
upper trough will develop over WA/OR Tuesday morning. GFS continues
to suggest a split flow with a cutoff low forming in California,
while the ECMWF has backed off the closed circulation and is pushing
an open wave through the region instead. Both models are supporting
drier conditions Wednesday. Hinsberger


.AVIATION...Expecting breezy conditions this afternoon across the
Snake Plain. KPIH and KIDA may see gusts to 25kts this afternoon.
Upper ridge shifts eastward overnight and moisture ahead of upstream
system will reach Idaho in the early morning hours. As the precip
begins, we will see conditions becoming MVFR or even IFR just before
sunrise.  Hinsberger



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