Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 211417
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
817 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INCREASING IN THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURING. WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY UNTIL 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WAS
MADE EFFECT NOW THROUGH 6 PM MDT. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017.

&&

$$






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