Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 281517
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
920 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE SRN HIGHLANDS
AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER LOOKS DENSE ENOUGH TO
SUPPRESS HEATING TODAY SO ALSO DECREASED THE MAX TEMP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

THE CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE IN OUR
AREA MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN EDGES. EXPECT MAINLY MOUNTAIN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG OUR WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MAINLY MOUNTAIN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BEAR LAKE REGION WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AS THE MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF SUB-TROPICAL FEATURE MOVING OVER
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS REACH ONE INCH BRINGING THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ISOLATED VALLEY AND
SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WAVE CLIPPING THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS TUESDAY
ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. WEDNESDAY EXPECT ISOLATED
VALLEY AND SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A WAVE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
ENHANCING CONVECTION BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
STRONG...GUSTY OUTFLOWS AROUND 50 MPH IN AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. WYATT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS WITH JUST MAINLY
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM EARLY IN PERIOD.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT TOWARD STRONGER
CONVECTION WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT BECAUSE
OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT STORMS
COULD AFFECT THE TAFS SITES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION MUCH
OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL FRONTS INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






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