Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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751
FXZS60 NSTU 140143
AFDPPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND INDEPENDENT SAMOA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
243 PM SST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING RAINFALL ACTIVITY AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED DURING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
ARRIVAL OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH COMBINED WITH MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ENHANCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISSUANCE
OF HYDROLOGICAL PRODUCTS ARE MANDATORY TO MIRROR THIS EXPECTED THIS
SITUATION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SITUATION AS FUTURE
MODELS BECOME AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER REVIEW.

.LONG TERM...
.TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST OF THE DATE LINE TO OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS TO BEYOND MANU`A
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL LOUNGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. COMPUTER
MODELS TRACKED A CIRCULATION (FORMER CYCLONE WINSTON) TO PASS THROUGH
THE NORTH OF TONGA REGION DURING WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS A STRONG RIDGE
NORTHEAST OF THE SAMOAN ISLANDS WILL SUPPRESS THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
MOVEMENT OF THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM LEADING THE AFOREMENTIONED CIRCULATION
TO RETRACK ITS COURSE BACK TO NEAR NADI AROUND FRIDAY.

AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGH DIGS WELL SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD TAHITI...A FEW OTHER DEVELOPING CIRCULATIONS WILL EVOLVED FROM
ALONG THE MONSOONAL TROUGH BEFORE SATURDAY. THE MUCH ANTICIPATED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE TSTMS SEEMS PROMISING AS THE MONSOONAL TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE SAMOAN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS A RESULT...ANTICIPATE A LOT OF WEATHER AND A BULK OF HEAVY MOISTURE
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR AT LEAST 24 TO 72 HOURS. ISSUANCE OF
HYDROLOGICAL PRODUCTS ARE MANDATORY TO REFLECT THIS EXPECTED SITUATION.

&&

.MARINE...A NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A 9 TO 12 FT SWELL TUESDAY MORNING. AS MENTIONED
IN THE LONG TERM FCST...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THE
EXPECTED SWELL COMBINED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SWELLS AND WAVES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS FUTURE MODELS BECOME
AVAILABLE.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NONE.

&&

$$

CB







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