Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 292248
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
848 AM CHST SAT AUG 30 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS
10 TO 16 KNOT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 10 THOUSAND
FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS IS PROVIDING A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MIXED
WITH DIRECTIONAL CONFLUENCE AND SPEED DIVERGENCE. IT WOULD SEEM
THE DIVERGENCE IS THE BIGGER AND IS JUST ENOUGH TO ENABLE A NUMBER
OF THESE SHOWERS TO BECOME THUNDERSTORMS. JUST ADDED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MORNING AS BOTH THE
TROUGH AND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE FARTHER AWAY. OTHERWISE JUST
REFRESHED THE WIND AND WAVE GRIDS. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD BE PEAKING
AT 3 TO 5 FEET TODAY WITH THE 5 FOOT VALUES NEAR SAIPAN WHILE GUAM
IS ABOUT A FOOT LOWER. THEN SEAS WILL DROP BY ABOUT A FOOT AND
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY MOST OF THIS COMING WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN MICRONESIA THIS
MORNING. POHNPEI AND KOSRAE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING MAJURO THIS MORNING
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE ATOLL TODAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING
TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
MARSHALLS SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS TO MAJURO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED CONVECTION LIKELY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. AS THIS TROUGH PROGRESSES WESTWARD...EXPECT TO SEE ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AT KOSRAE MONDAY AND AT POHNPEI TUESDAY.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL PRODUCED BY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS NEAR FIJI AND SAMOA IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
COULD SPREAD TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND. HIGHER
SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISKS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
FACING SHORES BUT HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A BROAD CIRCULATION REMAINS TO THE WEST OF CHUUK. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES FURTHER WEST...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH TODAY WITH PLEASANT
WEATHER LIKELY BY TONIGHT. AS THE WEAK SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
MICRONESIA APPROACHES CHUUK WEDNESDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. A WEAK WIND REGIME IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER YAP AND KOROR.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH FORMING OVER YAP AND PALAU.
MODELS INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO A WEAK
MONSOONAL SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TO KOROR...MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/KLEESCHULTE





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