Area Forecast Discussion
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948
FXPQ60 PGUM 161918
AFDPQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
518 AM ChST Thu Aug 17 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Mostly cloudy skies with light winds prevail across the Marianas.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are evident on the latest
satellite imagery with scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms northeast of Saipan. Latest buoy data shows seas
between 2 and 3 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
Latest model guidance continues to show scattered showers over
the Marianas Thursday night through Friday night. However, based
on latest satellite data, it appears likely that scattered showers
will move in to Saipan and Tinian this morning and drift south-
southwestward through the day, affecting Rota and Guam late this
afternoon. Therefore, the only changes to the inherited forecast
was to add scattered showers to Tinian and Saipan forecast for
today and this evening and to Guam and Rota this afternoon. Latest
GFS run also shows the possibility of a brief period of scattered
showers on Saturday as well, but decided to hold off on that for
now. Either way, an unsettled pattern is expected to continue
through Saturday night, with a drier pattern returning to the
Marianas by Sunday.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
A surface trough near Pohnpei continues to slowly head west.
Showers and thunderstorms span much of Pohnpei and western Kosrae
States. Wet weather will persist at Pohnpei today, tapering
slightly tonight. Drier weather currently across the Marshalls
will spread westward by Friday. Weak trade-wind convergence
followed by the development of a near-equatorial trough across the
area over the weekend will bring isolated thunderstorms to most
areas in the long term.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
A broad trough has moved just to the west of Chuuk which has
allowed some drier weather to reach the area for today. However,
more clouds, showers, and thunderstorms will arrive tonight as
another trough approaches from the east. Farther west, dry weather
remains across Yap and Koror with a light southwest wind. Clouds
and isolated thunderstorms will head into the area tonight with
the approaching trough from the east. Quieter weather is expected
by late weekend.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

$$

Kleeschulte/W. Aydlett



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