Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 010832 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ADDED MICRONESIAN DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
635 PM CHST WED OCT 1 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
TS PHANFONE IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...AND FOR THE TIME
BEING THE WEATHER OVER THE MARIANAS IS SETTLING DOWN. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE MARIANAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LINGER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS MONSOON FLOW PERSISTS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THIS
WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE MARIANAS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION
GFS BRINGS A SURGE OF MOISTURE THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE NEXT DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE...AND GFS
BRINGS IT ON A PATH SIMILAR TO PHANFONE...APPROACHING THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR TYPHOON MON-TUE. STILL A
FAIR LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP
A CLOSE WATCH ON.

&&

.MARINE/SURF...
GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THRU THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST SWELL PLUS WIND WAVE WILL STIR
UP SOME HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG WEST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. IN ADDITION...LINGERING NORTH SWELL WILL BRING
HAZARDOUS SURF TO NORTH SHORES OF GUAM AND ROTA TONIGHT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TYPHOON
PHANFONE...LOCATED NORTHWEST OF CHUUK AND GUAM TO A CIRCULATION
WHICH IS EAST OF KOSRAE. CONVERGENCE AROUND THE CIRCULATION AND A
CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM MAJURO EASTWARD WILL BRING KOSRAE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND MAJURO UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REACH POHNPEI
THURSDAY AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTH OF
POHNPEI.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK RIDGE WILL AFFECT CHUUK INTO FRIDAY. THE CIRCULATION THAT IS
NOW JUST EAST OF KOSRAE IS PROGGED TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF CHUUK
LEAVING CHUUK IN RELATIVELY PLEASANT WEATHER. YAP AND KOROR ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SATURDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THURSDAY
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA








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