Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 252003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
600 AM ChST Sun Feb 26 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Isolated showers and moderate to fresh trade winds persist across the
Marianas waters. The buoys are reporting 5-8 ft seas. Little change
is likely the next few days.


The forecast is much the same, awaiting some kind of agreement
between the GFS and ECMWF for the second half of this week. ECMWF is
still very quiet for the Marianas the next 10 days, and GFS still
brings increasing clouds and showers Thursday-Saturday. Have left
mostly cloudy with isolated showers for that period, giving more
weight to the ECMWF.


Refreshed the wave and swell grids, but only minor changes resulted.
Seas will rise slightly Monday, but no high surf or small craft
advisories are expected.


.Eastern Micronesia...
Heavy showers and thunderstorms are found south of Chuuk and Pohnpei
within an area of trade-wind convergence while showers and a few
thunderstorms are also found near Kosrae and south of Majuro along
4-6N. Showers and thunderstorms are still expected to expand
northward the next couple of days, increasing tonight and Monday at
Kosrae, Monday night at Pohnpei, and Tuesday at Chuuk. Drier weather
will return later in the week. Majuro will see just a few showers the
next several days as most showers will stay to the south.

Scatterometer data show 20 to 25 knot winds across much of the area
from Chuuk eastward. Strong trades will remain hazardous to small
craft the next 1 to 2 days for all locations. Seas will also remain
hazardous for the short term. Have issued a high surf advisory for
Pohnpei and Chuuk in response to larger northeast swell and wind
waves. Through tonight...Majuro could still see minor inundation
around times of high tides along northeast and east facing shores.


.Western Micronesia...
Chuuk discussion included in the eastern Micronesia discussion.

Isolated showers are seen around Yap and Palau although much cloud
cover remains from deep convection Saturday. Showers and
thunderstorms are seen farther southeast near a surface trough.
Moderate to fresh trades and isolated showers will persist the next
couple of days, but models continue to show disturbed weather
developing around midweek. GFS still points to a weak circulation in
the area, although the 12Z run is less impressive on the circulation.
Regardless...Navgem, ECMWF, and GFS all show increasing showers and
thunderstorms around Wednesday at both Yap and Koror.


Marianas Waters...None.


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