Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 130625
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
425 PM CHST SUN JUL 13 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS
GUAM THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
THE MARIANAS THIS MORNING. THE AREA PUSHED SOUTHWEST AND
DISSIPATED FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH ONE LITTLE PATCH OF
SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR GUAM AND ROTA. IT MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO THESE ISLANDS JUST BEFORE SUNSET. FEEL THE
PREDOMINANT COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS LARGER AREA MAY RE-FIRE UP LATER TONIGHT. DO
NOT THINK IT WILL BECOME SCATTERED BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTING UP TO THE MARIANAS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SHOW AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY AND PERSIST
THROUGH ABOUT MID-WEEK. AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS STRETCHED ROUGHLY ALONG 7N-9N ACROSS
EASTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH SEVERAL WEAK TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS.
MOST OF THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE
THREE MARINE FORECAST LOCATIONS. MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL
LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WHILE THE CIRCULATIONS DRIFT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. FORECASTING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL REQUIRE
PLENTY NOW-CASTING. IN THE LONGER TERM...MODELS INDICATE THAT
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEK AND LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG ABOUT 5N-7N.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
TROPICAL STORM RAMMASUN IS NEAR 14N137E AND MOVING WESTWARD. WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL AT BOTH YAP AND KOROR. SATELLITE SHOWS
A FEW BANDS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS STRETCHED ACROSS YAP STATE AND
PALAU. RAMMASUN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND A
RELATIVELY MOIST MONSOON FLOW WILL PERSIST AT YAP AND KOROR THIS
WEEK.

ASCAT ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK CIRCULATION ENE OF CHUUK AT
8N156E THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOON TROUGH. MOST MODELS
INDICATE THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WHILE
THE CIRCULATION DRIFTS TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST. THE SITUATION WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AND THE WEATHER ACROSS CHUUK STATE
WILL BE CHANGEABLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN MOIST
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHUUK THROUGH THE END OF
THIS WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/SIMPSON






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