Area Forecast Discussion
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814
FXPQ60 PGUM 070604
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
404 PM CHST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS PASSED OVER THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ADDED A FEW CLOUDS MID-WEEK AND SATURDAY OTHERWISE NO BIG
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST. A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE BROUGHT
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF
THE ISLANDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. DRY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FEATURE THAT CAUSES IT
APPEARS TO BE A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF A SHEAR
LINE. THE SHEAR LINE ITSELF LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHWARDS TO BRING SOME CLOUDS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DID HINT AT THESE FEATURES YESTERDAY BUT
HESITATED TO ADD. WITH MULTIPLE MODEL RUNS AND MODELS SHOWING THIS
PREDICTION FELT THAT THEIR IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE
FORECAST.

A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. EAST TRADE-WINDS WILL START BUILDING BY
MONDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH BY MID-WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH
WILL CORRESPOND TO A FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
IPAN AND TANAPAG BUOY DATA SHOW COMBINED SEAS AROUND 5 TO 7 FEET
THIS AFTERNOON. EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF OF 7 TO 9 FEET AND
GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY SMALL. SEAS WILL INCREASE THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AS WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE SEEN JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND NEAR MAJURO...BUT
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS DRY ACROSS THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF 3N. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE THICKER HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERIODICALLY PASS OVERHEAD
MOST AREAS LATER THIS WEEK BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LOW.
ASCAT INDICATES 20 TO 30 KT WINDS JUST UPWIND OF THE MARSHALLS WITH
NEAR 25 KT WINDS SEEN NORTHEAST OF KOSRAE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLACKEN SOME BY MIDWEEK.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM POHNPEI TO KOSRAE AND
MAJURO. ALSO...SEAS AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AT ALL 3 LOCATIONS.
AT MAJURO...THE COMBINATION OF HIGH SURF AND KING TIDES...SOME
COASTAL INUNDATION IS EXPECTED AROUND TIMES OF HIGH TIDES THROUGH
MIDWEEK. PACIOOS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL LEVEL OF INUNDATION COMPARABLE
TO OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN A 2011 EVENT IN WHICH WATER CRESTED AT
THE ROADWAY AROUND THE AIRPORT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH PASSING JUST EAST OF YAP WILL SLOWLY MOVE BY KOROR
TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE FOUND NORTH OF KOROR. OTHERWISE...DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN WILL
PERSIST AT KOROR...YAP AND CHUUK FOR THE WEEK.

INCREASED WINDS AND TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WAVES WILL REMAINS HAZARDOUS
FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE IN THE
WEEK AT YAP AND KOROR AS NORTH SWELL ARRIVES FROM A COLD FRONT
OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT



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