Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 262139
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
239 PM MST Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and tranquil weather will persist into the weekend with
afternoon high temperatures very typical for the end of May into the
90s and lower 100s. Temperatures will warm somewhat into the
beginning of next week with some scattered mountain storms possible
by the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A temporary cool down today and Saturday will give way to warming
temperatures and above normal highs starting Sunday. The cool down
is taking place because of a large scale troughing that moved into
the Western U.S. A significant shortwave trough embedded within
the large scale flow will move through the Great Basin into tonight
while another barely noticeable is currently moving through
Arizona. Very dry conditions over the region will keep skies clear
despite the shortwave trough passage. The area will also have to
contend with another breezy to windy day today as surface low
pressure deepens over the Great Basin providing a modestly strong
northwest to southeast pressure gradient. Wind gusts this
afternoon will approach 30 mph in many locations, but higher
gusts are expected over higher terrain locations of southeast
California and eastern Arizona. This has also prompted a Wind
Advisory to be issued through early Saturday morning for far
southwest Imperial County. Very little change in the forecast has
been made through the weekend and the previous forecast still
applies.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
General mid continent troughing and a series of shortwaves over the
Rockies will keep H5 heights locally dampened in a 576-582dm range
today with only modest increases through the weekend as the core of
lower heights aloft translates into the Great Lakes. A more split
flow regime will predominate over the western Conus early next week
as high amplitude ridging through the Pacific Northwest is undercut
by an active subtropical jet into the Southwest. The end result will
be temperatures oscillating not horribly far from the seasonal
average, yet potentially better moisture availability than would be
expected at the end of May.

The majority of height falls and cooling aloft has locally
stabilized as the primary troughing circulation spins over the
Rockies and the trailing trough axis becomes less defined into the
Southwest. As a result, cooling around the H8 layer will be
maximized today with afternoon highs some 4F-8F cooler than
Thursday. Low level thermal profiles will rebound rather quickly
through the weekend with most lower elevation communities once again
breaching the 100F threshold (and very close to the seasonal normal)
by Sunday. Otherwise, any remaining strong winds will abate with the
weakening pressure gradient this morning; and only the more typical
afternoon gusts will prevail through the weekend.

Through the first half of next week, a more active subtropical jet
will bring at least one lower amplitude disturbance into the
Southwest domain though the details regarding timing, intensity, and
moisture availability remain varied among ensemble member output.
Ahead of this wave, heights and temperatures aloft will temporarily
spike and pockets of afternoon highs in a 105F-110F range will be
common Monday and Tuesday. Taking a GFS/ECMWF blend (which also
approximates a full ensemble blend), a quasi-cutoff feature will
drift into the Baja/northern Mexico allowing substantial backing of
winds in the H8-H7 layer through the four corners. Most model output
suggests notable moisture advection up the Rio Grande Valley and
juxtaposed with weakly forced ascent associated with the shortwave,
isold/sct thunderstorms will be possible along the Rim, White
Mountains, and portions of southern Gila County.

The forecast for the second half of next week remains highly
uncertain with model spread growing abruptly in a partially blocked
flow pattern. Have mostly ignored the operational 00Z GFS and its
follow-up deeper shortwave and closed low as an outlier versus
almost all other ensemble members. The 00Z ECMWF looks far more
agreeable when compared to other medium range guidance keeping an ill
defined trough lingering towards the four corners and yielding a
forecast very close to climatology.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Dry westerly flow aloft will dominate the weather for the next 24
hours, leading to generally clear skies at the terminals along with
rather light winds that favor normal diurnal tendencies, especially
in the greater Phoenix area. Expect a few gusts to around 20kt at
the central desert TAF sites through 02z then decreasing with winds
returning to the east/southeast after 07z. Locally breezy west winds
are expected in the Imperial area this evening otherwise winds
mostly below 12kt. Winds to favor the south to southwest at KBLH
next 24 hours with some afternoon/early evening gustiness.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday:

A return to above normal temperatures will occur Monday as high
pressure builds across the Great Basin. Dry conditions will also
persist though winds will generally be light. A weak Pacific low
pressure system will develop and move eastward towards the Southwest
and could result in a slight chance for thunderstorms across the
higher terrain of east-central Arizona, including southern Gila
County, Monday through the latter portion of the work week. Any
associated rainfall totals would likely be very light, and there is
some potential for isolated dry lightning strikes. As the weak low
moves east and across the area high temperatures will gradually
trend back towards seasonal normals. Minimum RH values across the
deserts will mostly range between 10 and 18 percent each day, with
higher amounts over the higher terrain of southern Gila county
expected as moisture returns from the east.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter reports will not be needed through the middle of next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ562.
&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...CB



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