Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KSGX 082150
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
150 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDY AND WARMER TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LESS WINDY AND BUT CONTINUED WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS.
SLOW COOLING AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY BY THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WEAKENS. PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN TO THE
REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PST...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED EAST TO
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND ALONG COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS. INLAND
TEMPS ROSE TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

GUSTY SANTA ANA...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST OBSERVED WIND GUST SO FAR WAS 68 MPH
AT SILL HILL IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY AT 410 PM SUNDAY. A LAXPNSSGX WAS
UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS HEADLINED ON OUR WEBPAGE WITH
HIGHEST OBSERVED WIND GUSTS. THE WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WEAKENS.

THE RIDGE ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPING...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CREATE VERY
WARM WEATHER TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH SLOW COOLING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEG F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND 5 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE DESERTS. A FEW SITES MAY BREAK OR TIE RECORD HIGHS
TODAY...HOWEVER SEVERAL SITES COULD BREAK OR TIE RECORD HIGHS
TOMORROW. A WEATHER STORY IS ON OUR WEBPAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA WITH
FORECAST HIGHS...RECORDS AND DATES. HIGHS WILL LOWER TO 5 TO 10
DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES TO OUR
EAST AND SW FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE QUITE WARM IN SOME AREAS WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE MIXING FROM THE OFFSHORE WINDS OCCURS.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE COOLER IN THE WIND SHELTERED AREAS. THE LOW
DEWPOINTS...WHICH HAS BEEN GIVING PEOPLE SINUS TROUBLE...WILL
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY THE WEEKEND AS OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WEAKEN.

THE 08/1200 UTC GFS IS SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING UP FROM
THE SW AND GENERATING PRECIP OVER SW CA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE 08/1200 UTC ECMWF AND CANADIAN IS SHOWING A DRY
RIDGE OVER US AT THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT NEXT MONDAY
DRY FOR NOW. SOLUTIONS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE REGION BY MID NEXT
WEEK...AND POSSIBLY ENDING OUR DRY SPELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
082130...SANTA ANA WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40-50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS
AND VALLEYS. STRONG UP/DOWN DRAFTS AND LLWS AT TIMES NEAR KSNA AND
KONT. CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES.

&&

.MARINE...
130 PM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY EAST-NORTH EAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. EVEN THROUGH GUSTY
WINDS ARE PRESENT AND RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
AFTERNOONS...FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE
FIRE GROWTH. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE IN EFFECT OR
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.