Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KSGX 012119
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
119 PM PST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR POINT
CONCEPTION WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE BALANCE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

RADAR SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN COVERING
MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON....WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE-HALF INCH OR MORE HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OVER
SAN DIEGO AND SW RIVERSIDE COUNTY. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...AMOUNTS
WERE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW TWO THIRDS OF
ORANGE COUNTY WITH LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH THROUGH NOON.

SOME LIMITED ENHANCEMENT CONTINUED IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WAS DECREASING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REMAINED IMPRESSIVE AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS WELL
OFFSHORE AND FORCES A DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOCAL WHICH
CONTINUES TO DRIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. FARTHER OFFSHORE...
ISOLATED ENHANCED CELLS WERE CIRCULATING AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST NW OF POINT CONCEPTION.

HEAVY SNOW WAS REPORTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 5000 FEET. LIGHTER SNOWFALL WAS
REPORTED IN THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS TODAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH MON.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE AND REMAIN OF
MODERATE INTENSITY. SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE MTS BUT
MAY BECOME MORE SHOWERY. UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER APPROACHES
THE COAST.

AS THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ONSHORE TONIGHT/MON...THE RAIN MAY BECOME MORE
SCATTERED...AND THE CHANCE OF T-STORMS WILL INCREASE WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE VARIABLE THROUGH MON AS THE PRECIP BECOMES MORE
SHOWERY...BUT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENTS OF 0NE-HALF
TO LOCALLY ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA ON TUE.

THE TRAILING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHWARD FARTHER OFF THE
COAST REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE LATEST 12Z MODEL RUNS SO POPS
WILL REMAIN SMALL AND FAVORED TOWARD THE COAST FOR TUE. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUE AFTERNOON
FROM RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... 012100Z...COASTS/VALLEYS/MOUNTAINS...EAST WINDS
CURRENTLY IMPACTING KSAN...KONT...AND...KCRQ WILL LINGER THOUGH 01-
03Z. LIGHTER WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM 03-10Z...WITH A PUSH OF WESTERLY
WINDS ARRIVING AFTER 10Z. THROUGH 22Z MONDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION. THE CHANCES OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING A TAF SITE IS LOW. MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW BASES TO BOUNCE AROUND AT THE TAF SITES WITH BKN-OVC
BASES BETWEEN 3000 AND 7000 FT MSL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY...BASES MAY FALL AS LOW AS 1500 FT MSL WITHIN THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOWERS. CLOUD TOPS WILL BE 25000 TO 30000 FT MSL. LOCAL VIS
RESTRICTIONS OF 1-2 SM MAY OCCUR WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN AND
2-5 SM WITHIN AREAS OF RAIN...OTHERWISE P6SM WILL PREVAIL. AFTER 22Z
MONDAY...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE...WITH SCT-BKN AOA 5000
FT MSL AND UNRESTRICTED VIS PREVAILING.

DESERTS...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED OVER THE DESERTS...WITH
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING OVER THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND
DESERTS OF SAN DIEGO COUNTY THROUGH 04Z MONDAY. CLOUD BASES WILL BE
IN THE 5000-9000 FT MSL RANGE WITH PREDOMINANTLY P6SM...THOUGH VIS
MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO 5SM IN AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...100 AM...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY
PRODUCE...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF WATERSPOUTS. SEE LAXMWSSGX FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY EVENING...WITH NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. &&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST MONDAY FOR RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...BA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.