Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
FXUS66 KSGX 250435
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
935 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016
Seasonably warm to hot weather will continue inland, with a
shallow marine layer bringing patchy night and morning low clouds
and fog along the coastal strip this week. The marine layer will
also moderate temperatures near the coast. Moisture aloft will
bring higher clouds at times, and some afternoon cumulus over the
mountains. Chances for afternoon convection over the mountains
will be low, only improving later in the week. A little cooler
next weekend into the first part of August as another weak trough
develops along the West Coast.
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
Today`s high temperatures ranged from about 3 to 15 degrees lower
than yesterday. This evening, an upper level disturbance moving in
from the southeast is spreading mid and high clouds over much of
the region. This is helping to inhibit the formation of low clouds
along the coast. So any low cloud will begin to spread inland
later than would otherwise be the case.
From previous discussion...
A weakening of the strong Subtropical Ridge aloft contributed to the
development of the coastal eddy and the overall lower
temperatures. The coastal eddy should dissipate tonight. This
will set us up for a more traditional sea breeze on Monday, and an
early burn-off of any nocturnal low clouds that develop.
Models show the Subtropical Ridge rebuilding again this week and
shifting to the west as it amplifies slightly. It will also lift
farther north, which sets up Socal in a prolonged easterly flow
aloft. While this will bring in more moisture, indications are, it
will be too high and insufficient for more than a few clouds and
isolated afternoon build-ups over the mts. By next weekend, the
models show a deeper moisture layer, apparently associated with
an easterly wave forecast to move across NW Mexico, increasing the
chances gor afternoon convection. Moisture still may be limited
however, which could result in more of a dry microburst and
For next week, the numerical models show the ridge building back
over the Great Plains. this allows a weak trough to develop along
the West Coast, which in turn should bring some cooling. In the
meantime, it will remain seasonally warm to hot this week,
250415Z...Coast...Areas of stratus will develop gradually between
06Z and 11Z within 10-15 miles of the coast, with moderate
confidence of arrival times of a cig at KSAN (09Z-11Z) and KCRQ (07Z-
09Z), but lower confidence of any cig at KSNA. Bases will be 700-
1000 ft MSL with tops to 1200 ft MSL. Local vis below 3 miles will
be possible 10Z-15Z over higher coastal terrain, including VCNTY
KCRQ, KMYF and KSDM. Most areas will clear 15Z-17Z Monday. Otherwise,
SCT-BKN clouds at/above 15000 ft MSL will prevail with some smoke
layers aloft through Monday.
Valleys/Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN clouds at/above 15000 ft MSL
will prevail with some smoke layers aloft but unrestricted surface
vis through Monday.
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Friday.
Skywarn activation will not be needed Monday.