Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 272031
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
131 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ARE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CREATE COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE
COAST AND IN HIGH DESERTS...TO WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR OTHER INLAND AREAS. MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF THE COASTS AND VALLEYS BY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE 27/1200 UTC ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG-TERM.

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE AZ/NM/TX/MEXICO BORDER...AND
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE PAC NW. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED
CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWED A FEW
WEAK RETURNS OVER THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AND A STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN
BORDER. LINGERING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL CREATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE PULSE-
LIKE...AND COULD CREATE MINOR FLOODING.

UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL RISE SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER ALONG THE COAST...AND INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. H850 TEMPS NEAR 28 DEG C WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE 5
TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY...MAKING THAT THE WARMEST DAY
FORECAST THIS WEEK. AS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...NO HEAT PRODUCTS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR OVER SW CA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL CREATE A DEEPER
MARINE LAYER...NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG OVER THE COAST AND
VALLEYS...AFTERNOON BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES
AND OVER THE DESERTS AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
ALSO BE MUCH COOLER WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...5 TO 15 DEG F BELOW
NORMAL...WITH NEAR SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE DESERTS AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
271945Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SURFACE BASED 8 DEGREE C INVERSION. LOW
CLOUDS BASED AROUND 800 FT MSL WITH TOPS TO NEAR 1500 FT MSL
SHOULD MOVE INLAND ABOUT 20 SM AFTER ABOUT 28/11Z TONIGHT. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG WHERE CLOUDS APPROACH HIGHER
TERRAIN. CONFIDENCE IN THE KSAN TAF FORECAST OF BKN LOW CLOUD
ARRIVAL AT AROUND 28/11Z TONIGHT IS GOOD. LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE
HEIGHT OF THE LOW CLOUD BASES. RISK OF BKN LOW CLOUDS AT KONT IS
VERY LOW TONIGHT...SO BKN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF KONT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VISIBILITY UNRESTRICTED...
EXCEPT OVER THE MOUNTAIN CREST AND LOCALLY IN THE DESERTS THROUGH
28/00Z MAINLY SCT CLOUDS BASED AROUND 9000 FT MSL. SUFFICIENT RISK
OF -TSRA TO INCLUDE THEM...WITH TOPS TO NEAR 30000 FT MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
200 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...SMALL


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