Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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FXUS66 KSGX 181341
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
540 AM PST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST ISSUED TO ADD FOG TO THE SOUTHERN
COACHELLA VALLEY THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ISOLATED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. DRY AND
MILDER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY AND WARMER DAYS AND DRY OFFSHORE FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SMALL ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
SOCAL COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW...AND
ALSO COINCIDENT WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
MORNING...GENERALLY LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE SHORTWAVE WILL KICK
EAST OF OUR AREA AFTER 18Z BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWER RISK.
ANOTHER COUPLE OF RIPPLES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP ACROSS
SOCAL FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER RISK
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO OUR REGION.

AFTER SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...WITH
HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DUE TO STRONG RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WEAK MARINE LAYER...THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY-TUESDAY WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE WARMEST DAYS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND INTO THE LOWER 80S INLAND.

MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WHAT TO DO WITH THE INSIDE SLIDER
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC ECM CONTINUES TO
BE THE STRONGER SOLUTION BRINGING A MUCH COLDER AND POTENTIALLY
WETTER AIRMASS TO SOCAL FOR XMAS DAY. WE HAVE TRENDED COOLER FOR
NOW BUT OTHERWISE HAVE NOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST FOR THAT TIMEFRAME UNTIL WE CAN GAIN SOME BETTER
CONTINUITY IN THE SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE
INSIDE SLIDER...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY XMAS
DAY FOR OUR REGION AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
181000Z...SCATTERED AND LOCALLY BROKEN CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
COASTAL BASIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. BASES WILL BE AROUND 3000-5000 FEET
MSL WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS IN LAYERS UP TO 20000 FEET. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 14Z MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. LOWER
DESERTS WILL HAVE SOME VIS 2-5SM AROUND KTRM AND LESS LIKELY AT KPSP
UNTIL ABOUT 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...
200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...MM










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