Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 012021
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
EACH LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ALONG WITH MORE EXTENSIVE
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BUILD A LITTLE BIT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING A WARMING
TREND FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME STRATUS VOER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY 2-3 DEG F LOWER THAN 24
HOURS AGO DUE TO SOME COOLING ALOFT AND THE COASTAL EDDY NOW
CENTERED SOUTH OF SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE A
LITTLE DEEPER TONIGHT FOR GREATER COVERAGE IN THE VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT...INCLUDING WEST AND SOUTH PARTS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE.

OVERALL...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THIS
WEEK. THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NOW OVER SONORA/CHIHUAHUA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST
COAST. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER HERE WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATELY
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...8-9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SOUTHERN NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON TO BRING A COOLING TREND. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE THE EDDY
WEAKENING...SO THAT WILL MODERATE THE TREND A LITTLE BIT...BUT
STILL...WE SHOULD HAVE STRATUS IN MANY VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT AND
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEG F BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE
VALLEYS...SO MOST TEMPS THERE WILL BE ONLY IN THE 80S THEN. WITH THE
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...THERE WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ESPECIALLY THE DESERT SLOPES AND NEAR SAN
GORGONIO PASS. LOCAL WRF PLUS THE CANSAC WRF BOTH SHOW SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 25-30 MPH IN WINDIEST AREAS FOR WED
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY LOCAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING THE MAXIMUM EXTENT OF THE WEST-COAST TROUGH OCCURRING AROUND
THURSDAY WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
REBUILDING SOME FRI/SAT...BUT WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH NO INTRUSIONS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
011955Z...COAST/VALLEYS...THROUGH 02/0000 UTC...CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS. 02/0000-1400 UTC...STRATUS GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND
20-35 MILES...WITH BASES 1300-1700 FT MSL...TOPS 1700-2100 FT
MSL...AREAS OF VIS 3-5 MILES...AND LOCAL VIS AT OR BELOW 2 MILES
OVER INLAND MESAS...VICINITY OF KRNM...AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
INLAND EMPIRE. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF STRATUS ARRIVAL FOR
KSAN...KCRQ AND KSNA TAFS IS LOW-TO-MODERATE...WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN CEILING HEIGHTS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS
OCCURRENCE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN LOWER VIS AND/OR LOW CLOUD BASES
OCCURRING AT KONT AFTER ABOUT 02/1100 UTC. STRATUS CLEARING TO THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE 02/1500-1800 UTC TIME-FRAME.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
1255 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF STRONG
LONGSHORE AND RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES THROUGH TODAY. A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ORANGE AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BEACHES IN
     THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...HARRISON





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