Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 212015
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
115 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SW CA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE MARINE
LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL AREAS. LOW PRESSURE RETURNING THIS WEEKEND
WILL LOWER HIGHS AND CREATE BREEZY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON SUNDAY...AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. SLIGHT WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST CA...AND A DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF ALASKA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.

THE 21/1200 UTC ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONG TERM. UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TO OUR
SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ALTHOUGH
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 589 DM BY THURSDAY...CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST AND
INLAND VALLEYS FROM RISING TOO MUCH. THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY THIS WEEK...WITH HIGHS RISING TO AROUND 5 TO 10 DEG F ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME MORE SHALLOW...BUT STILL
DEVELOP NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER
COASTAL VALLEYS EACH MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN
ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA. FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO COOL HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THEN ON SUNDAY...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS CA WILL CREATE A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...AND HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEG F BELOW NORMAL.
LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

HIGHS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WORK
WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH A MODERATELY DEEP MARINE
LAYER.

&&

.AVIATION...
211945Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST...MOSTLY IN
SAN DIEGO COUNTY...AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING WITH LOWER CIGS AROUND
700-1200 FEET MSL...SPREADING ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 MILES INLAND
OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF VIS 3-5 SM IN BR ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL
MESAS AND OTHER HIGHER COASTAL TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT
EARLIER...BY 16Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
1245 PM...A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH WIND WAVES IN THE
OUTER WATERS TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS APPROACHING 10 FEET TODAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
1245 PM...A LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE LARGER SURF
TODAY MAINLY TO WEST FACING BEACHES...HIGHEST SOUTH OF LA JOLLA AND
IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ORANGE COUNTY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
OCCUR. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS







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