Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
913
FXUS66 KSGX 022049
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
149 PM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CREATE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
THROUGH TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CREATE
COOLER, WET AND BREEZY WEATHER AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WEAK UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
CREATING NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AT 1 PM PDT, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYED A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE SW CA COAST, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CUMULUS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS, DESERTS AND INLAND EMPIRE. SHOWERS
DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
EARLIER TODAY, BUT CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DIMINISHED. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE AROUND 5 DEG F
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW. LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT
OVER THE COAST AND AROUND 20-30 MILES INLAND.

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BREAK OFF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, AND SLOWLY HEAD TOWARDS SW CA. MODELS DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION AT TIMES THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. TIMING OF PRECIP WILL DEPEND ON WHEN WEAK VORTICITY-
MAXIMUMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, AND WHEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE AREA. H500 TEMPS OF -23 DEG C WILL
CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO A WEAK MOISTURE TAP, WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.50-0.75 INCHES. HOWEVER, PRECIP WILL VARY
DEPENDING ON SHOWER MOVEMENT. THE SNOW LEVEL BE AROUND 7000 FT
THURSDAY, DROP TO AROUND 6000 FT ON FRIDAY, THEN RISE BACK TO
AROUND 7000 FT BY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AT TIMES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE WINDIEST
LOCATIONS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS WEEK AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES DIP 5 TO 15 DEG F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

DRY WEATHER WILL DEVELOP NEXT MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD WITH AN
APPROACHING WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
022030Z...CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS...WITH BASES 1500-2000 FT MSL AND TOPS TO
2500 FT MSL...WILL DEVELOP 01Z-05Z TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND SPREAD
20-25 MI INLAND BY 12Z TUE. TIMING OF ARRIVAL AT COASTAL AIRPORTS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE. HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE LOCALLY OBSCURED LATE
TONIGHT. LOCAL SFC VIS 1-3 MI WILL OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS. MOST AREAS
WILL CLEAR 16-19Z TUE.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ISOLD SHRA FROM CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 8000 FT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 01Z OVER THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VIS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
130 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AND
ASSOCIATED CHOPPY SEAS...RESULTING IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THU
NIGHT/FRI. SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRI.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJT
AVIATION/MARINE...MAXWELL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.