Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXCA62 TJSJ 221504
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1104 AM AST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
SOUNDING DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST DRY THAN NORMAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...TRADE WIND PASSING
SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PR AND USVI. RAINFALL ACTIVITY IF ANY...WILL BE LIGHT AND BRIEF.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WITH SOME ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PASSING -SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES. EASTERLY SFC WINDS AT 5-17KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE.
A NORTHEAST SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY FRI DETERIORATING THE
LOCAL MARINE CONDITIONS STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM AST MON DEC 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...DEEP RIDGE TO MAINTAIN LARGELY FAIR WEATHER
THIS WEEK. BUT MINOR LOW LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO CAUSE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE NUMBER OF SHOWERS.

VERY SHALLOW TROUGH...MAINLY NORTH OF ANEDAGA PASSAGE...TO PASS
OVER PR/USVI TODAY BUT IT FLATTENS AS IT DOES SO AND IS CARRYING
REALLY LIMITED MOISTURE. DOESN/T APPEAR THAT IT WILL MAKE MUCH
DIFFERENCE IN SHOWERS TODAY. BETTER MOISTURE...1.75 INCHES
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND ESSENTIALLY ALL BELOW 700 MB WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT BUT WITHOUT A TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS...FOR BRIEF/
SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS INTO USVI/EAST PR.

GFS SHOWING ANOTHER SIMILAR LOOKING TROUGH AND MOISTURE TO ARRIVE
LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. SO FAR...CAN/T SEE MORE THAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PASSING -SHRA
ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10-15KTS AFTER 22/14Z FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE ALL WEEK BUT A
STRONG AND PERSISTENT MIDDLE NORTH ATLANTIC STORM WILL DRIVE
SWELLS SOUTHWARD BY FRI...MOST OF IT GOING WELL EAST OF ANTILLES
BUT WE MAY GET THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE HIGH SWELLS FRI/SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  82  75  83  72 /  20  30  30  10
STT  86  75  85  76 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

27/23





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.