Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 300017
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
817 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...As the TUTT low moves away from the local islands,
a ridge pattern aloft will build from the east northeast.
Under building upper level ridge, moderate easterly winds and
precipitable water near or below normal values, a seasonable
weather pattern will prevail through at least Thursday with a
few locally induced afternoon showers and thunderstorms over
and west of the Cordillera Central as well as warm to hot
temperatures along the northern slopes of Puerto Rico. No
major changes were introduced at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area overnight and until 30/15Z with only vicinity SHRA possible
across the USVI and Leeward Islands terminals. After 30/17Z,
SHRA/TSRA expected to develop across western and interior Puerto
Rico, affecting the vicinity of TJBQ and TJMZ through 30/22Z with
mountain top obscuration. Low level winds will be from the E-ESE at
10 knots or less overnight increasing to 10 to 15 knots after
30/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...No change to previous discussion. A small, but long
period ENE swell, generated by Gaston will affect the local
Atlantic waters and Anegada by Tuesday with seas below 6 feet.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 135 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...Still expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop
over the northwest portions of Puerto Rico. Although a few showers
started to develop over the northwest portions of PR they quickly
dissipated. Dry air have moved over the local region therefore
limiting the convective activity across the NW PR. Tonight expect
dry and stable conditions to dominate our local forecast area with
only a few isolated showers moving across the local waters.

High pressure will dominate the area Tuesday through at least
Friday...maintaining stable atmospheric conditions across the
region. Therefore...limited shower activity is expected across the
local islands...except during the afternoon hours mainly across
the western interior section of Puerto Rico.

AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds at most TAF sites. SHRA/ Isold TSRA
dvlpmnt will be possible ovr parts of the ctrl mtn range of PR, then
will steer towards the N and NW sections of the island til at least
29/22z.  Expect prds of MVFR due to developing clds and SHRA/ Isold
TSRA vcty TJSJ... TJBQ and TJMZ til 29/22z w/psbl mtn top obscr. Few
streamerlike L/Lvl clouds w/SHRA btw Ern PR and Nrn Leewards, with
possible fair weather waterspouts in some areas based on recent
assessment tool guidance. L/LvL fm SE-S 10-15 kts blo FL150... then
veering and BCM fm w and incr w/ht abv. Expect lcl sea breeze
variations...but SFC wnd mainly fm SE 5-15 kts w/ocnl higher gust
til 29/22z.

MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots are expected
over the coastal waters. Hurricane Gaston located well NE of the
local region will continue to move across the Atlantic waters. A
small to moderate but long dominant period NE swell generated
from Gaston is expected to reach the local waters by Tuesday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  92  80  92 /  10  10  20  20
STT  81  89  80  90 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

72/23



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