Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
FXUS65 KSLC 240343
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
943 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system over central California will
track southeast into Arizona by midweek. Increasing moisture
associated with the low will lead to unsettled conditions across
Utah by late in the week.
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...The upper trough extending
from a low center over south-central Canada then southwest to
central California will move little heading into Tuesday. A
vorticity lobe lifting north through Nevada overnight will
maintain weak convection into extreme western Utah. A second area
of light showers forming over central Utah at mid-evening likely
supported by the nose of the upper jet entering southwest Utah.
Do not anticipate any of this convection to strengthen much
overnight. will likely issue an update to remove thunderstorms
from portion of northern Utah for the remainder of tonight.
The trough axis will shift little Tuesday, leading to another day
of weak convection driven largely by diurnal heating. One potential
change that will have to be watch will be a modest increase in
mid-level moisture across southern Utah. This moisture will
likely be drawn in by the shortwave ejecting out of the California
upper low. This dynamic feature is scheduled to reach southwest
Utah during the afternoon, with best available forcing at peak
heating. Again, the moisture is a bit thin so convection that does
form will be high-based and a good candidate for microburst winds.
The shift of the California low into southern California/western
Arizona Wednesday will draw the elongated trough axis east into
western Utah late in the day. This shift will bring an increased
chance for showers/isolated thunderstorms into southern/western
Utah during the late morning through afternoon hours.
.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...Models in general
agreement in opening up Upper low over far southern California
as system slides eastward. Timing differences do exist, with NAM
offering a compromise solution between faster turning strong GFS
and slower ECMWF solution. Though models suggest only modest
upward forcing...deepest moisture in place for Thursday, so have
opted for precipitation chances across forecast area.
While trough will slide east of forecast area on Friday, enough
residual moisture and instability will be in place to provide a
continued chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Another upper level system will pivot through the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies over the course of the week.
While the bulk of energy with this system will remain north of
the region, models suggest moisture in association with this
system will spread into Great Basin, providing a chance for
showers and thunderstorms primarily across northern half of
.AVIATION...Light showers near the terminal from late this
afternoon ended early this evening. Additional light showers
well to the south will move north towards the terminal, but
will likely dissipated before arriving after midnight. Ceilings
will remain above 10 kft through Tuesday morning. light north
winds at mid-evening will turn to the south-southeast shortly
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