Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 291030
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
330 AM PDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.Synopsis...
Dry and milder weather expected for NorCal today. Another system
will brush the region tonight through Thursday with a few showers.
Dry and warmer weather returns for the weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Clear to partly cloudy skies cover the region early this morning
as the transient ridge begins to give way to the approaching
trough from the Gulf of Alaska. Current temperatures range from
the mid 20s to mid 30s in the colder mountain valleys to the 40s
and 50s elsewhere.

Today is expected to be another dry and mild day across most of
the region, though clouds will be on the increase and a few
showers may even pop up late in the day across the far northern
portion of the state. The breezy northerly winds of the past
couple of days will be history as flow begins to reverse ahead of
the approaching system.

Tonight`s system will be a quick hitter giving interior NorCal a
glancing blow as it quickly digs into the Great Basin on Thursday.
Showers will be mainly confined to the northern mountains and
northern Sierra Nevada, though the east side of the Central Valley
may get a brief shower.

Despite the fairly decent moisture tap (TPW plume around an inch),
the fast movement of the system will greatly limit the amount of
QPF (mostly less than 1/4 inch in the mountains with a few
hundredths of an inch in the valley) and snow accumulation in the
northern Sierra (only a few inches expected).

Dry, cooler and breezy to windy weather can be expected on the
backside of the system across interior NorCal for Thursday with
only a few showers lingering along the northern Sierra crest into
the afternoon. Wind gusts to 30 mph or higher can be expected in
the Central Valley by the afternoon.

Ridging from the eastern Pacific forecast build across the region
Friday and Saturday resulting in warmer temperatures. Breezy north
winds will continue Friday, but should decrease somewhat by
Saturday.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)
Longer-range models are converging on a consensus that brings a
shortwave trough NW to SE across the northern portions of the
state. The GFS is considerably stronger with the system, but all
solutions would suggest that most of the precipitation would be
confined to the mountains Sunday, possibly into Monday. Breezy
north winds are likely to redevelop behind this system, not unlike
the wind episodes we`re seeing this week.

High pressure then rebuilds across Northern California early to
mid next week, bringing another period of above normal
temperatures. The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are all hinting at a rather
wet storm system moving toward the West Coast late next week. Dang

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions with light winds less than 10 kts today. An
upper level system brushing by the region is likely to bring
IFR/LIFR conditions to the mountains after 06z tonight, along with
scattered -SHRA across the Sacramento Valley. Dang

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$



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