Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 280004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
804 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017


No significant changes to the previous forecast below appear



[Through 00z Monday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the evening hours. Later tonight, some patchy fog and low
ceilings could develop with patchy MVFR to IFR conditions
possible. Any fog and low clouds that develop are expected to
improve by mid-morning on Sunday with VFR conditions returning.



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Fair conditions will persist through the evening hours, before mid-
level clouds from the west gradually encroach upon the area tonight.
Given the modest increase in moisture over the past 24 hours or so,
low stratus is expected to develop across much of the region late
tonight and linger through daybreak Sunday morning. Though winds are
forecast to remain non-calm, some patchy fog is possible in areas
where winds can remain weak for an extended period of time. Given
the widespread cloud cover expected across the region, low
temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will persist for Sunday with the center of the
upper level ridge sliding just south of the CWA tomorrow. While
moisture will increase for Sunday, with the ridging and lack of
forcing, dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the
weekend. The upper ridging will shift eastward on Monday as an
upper level trough digs into the Great Lakes. A cold front
associated with this will sink into the southeast Sunday night
into Monday with it situated across the northern portion of the
CWA or just north of the CWA on Monday. With increasing moisture
and the proximity of the front, convection will return for Monday,
with the better chances (40-50%) across southeast Alabama. There
is plenty of instability Monday afternoon (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE)
and with deep layer shear around 30kts that a few of these storms
could be strong to severe. The main threat would be damaging
winds. SPC Day 3 outlook includes generally the northern half of
the CWA and the western portion of a portion of the Florida
panhandle in a marginal risk for Monday.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The surface front impacting the CWA in the short term will stall
across/near the CWA in the long term, helping to allow for
scattered thunderstorms each day through the long term forecast.
In addition, a few short waves in the flow may help to enhance
convection, but it is too early to pinpoint the timing on those
upper level features. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s, with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, near
normal for this time of year.


Southwest winds around 15 knots or less will persist through
Monday. After this, winds will become more variable through the
week. A front that stalls north of the marine area will help to
allow for isolated convection from Monday through the remainder of
the week.


Expect high dispersion indices over 75 on Sunday for most of the
region. Otherwise no fire weather concerns.


The area will be in a more active pattern beginning Monday with
scattered convection possible each day. Heavy rain will be
possible in some of the thunderstorms, however overall rainfall
amounts over the next week are limited and thus no widespread
flooding is expected.



Tallahassee   69  91  68  92  68 /  10   0  10  20  10
Panama City   73  82  74  83  73 /  10  10  10  20  10
Dothan        71  91  72  90  70 /  10   0  10  50  20
Albany        71  91  73  91  72 /   0   0   0  40  20
Valdosta      68  91  71  92  71 /   0   0   0  20  10
Cross City    68  89  70  91  70 /  10   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  72  86  73  86  72 /   0  10  10  20  10






NEAR TERM...Pullin
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