Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 190717
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
217 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The area will remain situated to the west of deep layer ridging.
With a warm, moist airmass and light southerly flow across the area,
we`ll start off the day with another foggy morning, then warm into
the low 80s after the fog clears.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

Deep layer ridging centered over the Atlantic with southeast to
southwest winds across the CWA will result in the warm, humid
pattern continuing through the short term. While a cold front will
move into the Tennessee Valley and Mississippi Valley on Wednesday,
the front will remain well north of the CWA. With the deep layer
southerly flow a few showers are possible through the short term,
but overall, rain chances are still on the lower side with a 30
percent chance or less. The highest rain chances will be Tuesday
afternoon/evening as PW values increase to 1.5+ inches, near a
record value for 00z Feb 21. There is enough instability Tuesday
and Wednesday that an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
Temperatures will continue to remain well above average with highs
in the low to mid 80s (around 15 degrees above normal) and lows
in the lower to mid 60s (around 20 degrees above normal).


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The southerly flow will continue into the long term with
temperatures remaining well above average. Slightly drier air
Thursday and Friday will limit precip chances to 10 percent or
less, however rain chances will return to the 20-30 percent range
as a cold front pushes into the CWA late in the weekend. This
front will quickly weaken though as it pushes eastward, with rain
chances diminishing.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Tuesday]...

Fog and low cigs are already beginning to filter into the area this
morning. LIFR cigs will be possible at all terminals with LIFR vsbys
are likely at TLH, ECP, and VLD. Conditions will begin to improve
around 14Z, but may not return to VFR until around 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...

Dense fog over the marine area will continue to be possible through
mid morning. East to south winds will dominate over the next few
days with wind speeds of 10-15 knots. Brief periods of exercise
caution are possible, mainly Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Minimum RH values will be around 50 percent or higher through the
next several days. As a result, no fire weather concerns are
anticipated throughout this period. Transport winds and dispersions
will be on the higher end over the Florida Panhandle and southeast
Alabama this afternoon, but still below headline criteria.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

While there are low end chances of precipitation in the forecast,
rainfall amounts over the next few days are minimal. The
Choctawhatchee River at Bruce continues to remain in minor flood,
but is falling and should fall into action stage Tuesday night.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   80  61  82  65  82 /   0   0  20  20  20
Panama City   75  63  78  66  78 /   0   0  30  20  10
Dothan        79  61  81  66  81 /   0   0  30  30  20
Albany        81  61  82  66  82 /   0   0  20  30  20
Valdosta      81  62  83  65  83 /   0   0  20  20  20
Cross City    83  63  84  65  84 /   0   0  20  10  10
Apalachicola  73  62  76  65  76 /   0   0  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Nguyen
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Nguyen
HYDROLOGY...Fieux



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