Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 081904
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
304 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure off the Carolina coast will move further into the
Atlantic shifting our low level flow to more of a southeasterly
component overnight. Gradually increasing moisture will lead to
the potential for patchy fog across South Central Georgia and into
the Florida Big Bend. Hi-res guidance also shows the potential for
a few showers across the far Southeastern Big Bend or adjacent
coastal waters, so included a 20 percent PoP in these areas
overnight. Elsewhere, with skies mostly clear, expect another
night of cool temperatures in South Alabama and into the Florida
Panhandle with lows in the lower 60s. Further east, lows will be
in the mid to upper 60s.
.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Upper ridge will begin to breakdown on Friday as a trough develops
over the eastern states. Warm temperatures combined with the
weakening high will support scattered storms over the eastern
half of the forecast area by afternoon. Additional showers and a
few thunderstorms will be possible late Friday night into Saturday
as the upper trough deepens and pushes a front across the forecast
area. With little in the wa of return flow ahead of this system,
widespread rain is not expected, and the best rain chances will
across the northeastern zones on Saturday. Temperatures will
remain above normal Friday and Saturday, with highs generally in
the mid 80s.
.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
A cooler airmass will push into the region on Sunday behind the
cold front, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s (a few
degrees below normal). Seasonable conditions will continue through
much of next week, with only a week frontal passage with slight
rain chances expected on Tuesday.
[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail at all sites
through late tonight. Around 09z the potential for MVFR vsbys
will increase at all inland terminals. IFR conditions are possible
at sunrise near VLD. Any fog restrictions should end by 13z with
VFR conditions expected thereafter.
Light easterly winds will becoming offshore behind a cold front on
Saturday. However, conditions are expected to remain below
headline levels. With a weak pressure gradient in place, light
winds and low seas are then forecast to persist into the middle
of next week.
Red flag conditions are not expected with relative humidity
remaining well above critical thresholds.
Rivers remain well below action stages and with minimal rainfall
expected over the next few days, there are no flooding concerns
across the region.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 65 87 68 85 65 / 10 20 10 20 10
Panama City 65 83 70 82 64 / 10 20 10 20 10
Dothan 62 85 65 81 60 / 0 10 20 20 10
Albany 64 85 66 82 62 / 0 10 20 30 10
Valdosta 67 86 68 83 63 / 10 30 20 30 20
Cross City 69 87 70 84 67 / 20 40 20 30 20
Apalachicola 67 82 69 82 65 / 10 20 10 20 10