Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 241607
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1207 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 9 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a high pressure
ridge along the Piedmont, with the low layer flow (1000-700mb)
from the northeast at 10 to 15 knots. This will pin the FL Big
Bend and Panhandle sea breeze fronts near the coast this afternoon.
Deep layer moisture was still plentiful across our region this
morning; in fact, this morning`s KTAE sounding was more moist
than 24 hours ago. There is good agreement among the numerical
models (global and mesoscale) in significant drying this afternoon
developing from east to west, but this appears to be a little
fast based on recent observations. Thus we are not quite as dry as
some of the CAMs today. The greatest concentration of storms will
be in the FL Panhandle, where there is the best combination of
deep layer moisture and low layer convergence. The PoPs here will
be 50%, trailing off to 20% east of Tallahassee and Dothan. While
not quite as warm as 24 hours ago, 850 mb temperatures were still
quite warm at 18 C, so high temperatures will reach the mid 90s
this afternoon across most of the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1132 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

Deep layer ridging and lower than typical moisture levels will
keep rain chances low through Friday. Expect afternoon highs to be
a degree or so on the high side of normal.


.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Lower than normal PoPs will continue on Saturday, though deep
layer moisture will begin gradually increasing. By Sunday, expect
PoPs to return to at least normal. Easterly flow will favor the
highest PoPs across north Florida and extreme south Georgia,
especially in the Suwannee basin. Highs will be near normal.

The long range forecast still remains highly uncertain as models
struggle to agree on the evolution of a potential tropical cyclone
near the Greater Antilles/Bahamas region early this weekend.
Depending on the model, a TC of varying intensities could remain
in the western Atlantic, move through the southern Gulf, or
anywhere in between beginning late this weekend through mid-week
next week. Folks along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts should pay
close attention to the forecasts over the next several days and
take some time to be sure your disaster supply kits are up to
date. Regardless of the eventual evolution of this system, the
above steps are prudent as we move through the peak of hurricane
season.


.AVIATION [Through 06Z Thursday]...

MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible around daybreak at VLD. Otherwise,
VFR will prevail with light winds.


.MARINE...

Easterly flow will result in cautionary level nocturnal wind surges
for the next couple of nights. Seas will likely be in the 2 to 4
foot range. Winds and seas will temporarily ease each through each
afternoon.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air will work into the area beginning today with diminishing
chances for rain through the remainder of the work week. Relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels and there are no
fire weather concerns at this time.


.HYDROLOGY...

Flooding is not expected over the next several days as PoPs will
likely be below normal through Saturday. Thereafter, a typical
scattering of afternoon storms should be expected. Coverage and
intensity of rainfall could increase early to mid next week
depending on the evolution of a possible tropical cyclone.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   95  74  93  75  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
Panama City   88  77  90  78  91 /  50  20  10   0  10
Dothan        93  73  93  71  96 /  30  10   0   0  10
Albany        93  72  93  71  96 /  20  10   0   0  10
Valdosta      93  71  92  73  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
Cross City    93  74  92  74  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  90  77  89  78  89 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan


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