Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTAE 280628
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
228 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Subtropical ridge will remain in place over the southeastern
states today, with any significant forcing remaining well north
and west of the local area. Expect very warm temperatures this
afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Combined with
dewpoints in the lower 70s, this will yield heat index values up
to around 107 degrees, just short of Heat Advisory criteria.
Relief via afternoon convection will be limited, with only
isolated activity anticipated.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Deep layer ridging will be in place through the short term period,
yielding below average shower and thunderstorm chances in the
20-30% range and slightly above average afternoon high
temperatures in the mid 90s. Max heat index values are mainly
expected to be in the 103 to 107 F range.


.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The long term period will see subtropical ridging flatten as a
broad shortwave trough traverses the Ohio Valley this weekend.
This feature will aid in gradually increasing deep layer moisture
across the region with the flow turning more onshore. An increase
in PWAT values to near 2" is expected across much of the region by
next week, resulting in a return closer to average PoPs for this
time of year in the 30-40% range. Seasonal temperatures are
expected, with highs generally ranging in the lower to mid 90s and
heat indicies generally ranging from 100 to 105F.

&&

.AVIATION...

[Through 06z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period at all terminals. Chance of impacts from
afternoon thunderstorms is very low.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will remain generally around 10 knots or less with seas of 2
feet or less through the period as high pressure dominates the
overall weather pattern.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Other than elevated afternoon dispersion values, hazardous fire
weather conditions are not expected over the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

There are no flooding concerns for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   96  75  95  75  96 /  20  10  20  10  30
Panama City   90  81  89  80  88 /  20  10  20  10  30
Dothan        95  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  20  10  30
Albany        97  74  96  75  96 /  10   0  20  10  30
Valdosta      96  73  96  73  95 /  20  10  20  10  30
Cross City    95  74  95  75  95 /  20  10  20  10  30
Apalachicola  91  78  91  77  91 /  10  10  20  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...DVD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.