Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 291254
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
554 AM MST Mon Dec 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Monday through Wednesday...Light snow continues across Central
Montana this morning. Snow will diminish as most moisture exits
the region later Monday morning. Skies begin to clear from the
north Monday afternoon as very cold air continues to move into the
region. With clearing skies and fresh snow, the possibility of
widespread low temperatures around 20 degrees below zero exists
Tuesday morning. Temperatures warm noticeably into Wednesday
as high pressure moves in over the region.

Wednesday night through Monday...Some changes made for the medium
range forecast. Dry and cool northerly flow aloft over the area
Wednesday night and Thursday. Shortwave energy embedded within said
flow will clip the northeast portion of the county warning area
Thursday afternoon and bring the possibility of light snow to Hill
and Blaine counties. Previous forecasts had indicated another surge
of arctic air to begin moving across the area on Friday. Medium
range models now cast doubt on this solution and have reverted to a
generally dry pattern with any precipitation confined to the
mountains. 500 mb heights sag across the area Saturday and scattered
snow showers increase in areal coverage but cold air intrusion will
not likely happen. Sunday through Monday will find a weak upper trof
rotating across the area. Scattered snow showers will be fairly
widespread. Colder air will be advected into the area but readings
will not be significantly cold as previous forecasts had indicated.
Temperatures through the period will remain below seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1155Z.
Widespread light snow will continue to gradually diminish and should
end by 18z. Skies will begin to clear from north to south during the
afternoon. Areas of fog are a possibility through 17z, mainly in
low-lying areas and along open water. MVFR/IFR conditions prevail
due to low ceilings and snow. Increasing VFR conditions after 18z.
Mountains obscured through 18z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   2 -22   3  -4 /  10  10   0   0
CTB  -1 -26   6  -4 /  10   0   0   0
HLN   7 -20   0 -11 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  10 -22  -2 -18 /  20  10   0   0
WEY  13 -22   5 -20 /  40  20  10   0
DLN  11 -16   3 -10 /  10  10   0   0
HVR   6 -15   5  -3 /   0   0   0   0
LWT   4 -20   5  -3 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 6 PM MST this evening Blaine...
Cascade...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern
Teton...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Northern Rocky
Mountain Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

&&

$$

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