Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 231130
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
530 AM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...Update to Aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper level ridge will remain along the West Coast today with
a slightly unsettled northwest flow aloft continuing over
Montana. The main impact to the forecast area will be variable
clouds with a slight chance for a light shower over the next day
or two. The upper ridge slides eastward through the weekend with
temperatures warming to near or slightly above seasonal averages
by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...Relatively quiet weather will prevail
across the forecast area Friday through Sunday. Main driver for
the expected weather is an upper level high pressure ridge along
the West Coast. This will place the state beneath a persistent
northwest flow aloft that will bring variable clouds and a few
light showers and areas of sprinkles to mainly North Central
Montana Friday and Saturday. Models are also showing that the
surface pressure gradient across the region will be weaker than it
has been the last few days, so the unseasonably breezy conditions
we have experienced lately are not expected to rematerialize.
Finally, by Sunday the upper ridge is expected to edge eastward
which should allow temperatures to warm back up to near or
slightly above seasonal averages.

Sunday Night through Thursday...The weekend warming trend peaks on
Monday as the upper level ridge axis passes over the region. Warm
temperatures Monday afternoon will produce adequate instability to
cause scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Some of this
activity could persist late Monday evening, aided by a shortwave
trough approaching from the PacNW. A large scale trough
develops over western Canada on Tuesday, then drops into the high
plains through mid-week. Diverging model solutions provide little
useful guidance regarding the passage of shortwave features embedded
within the broadly NW flow aloft. Overall, temperatures trend cooler
Tuesday through Thursday, with slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms associated with the minor shortwave disturbances. PN

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1130Z.

Northwest flow aloft over the region will bring variable mid level
clouds to North Central Montana while Southwest Montana remains
mostly clear. Isolated to scattered showers and areas of sprinkles
are possible over northern portions of the forecast area. VFR
conditions will prevail through the forecast period. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  69  44  72  46 /  10  10  10   0
CTB  67  43  70  45 /  10  10  20  10
HLN  73  47  76  50 /   0   0  10   0
BZN  71  42  74  44 /   0   0  10   0
WEY  67  35  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  71  42  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  71  44  74  47 /  10  10  10   0
LWT  65  41  68  43 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls



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