Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 291149
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 AM MDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Tuesday...Temperatures will begin to climb back
well above seasonal values Sunday with most locations in the 60s.
By Monday those locations can expect temperatures in the upper
60s and low 70s. Tuesday should bring another warm day...however
an advancing cold front will begin to signal a shift in the
weather pattern Tuesday. The warm and dry weather to start the
week is due to an upper level ridge residing over the region for
the next few days before a more progressive flow pattern begins to
establish itself on Tuesday. As we transition between the two
patterns there is a potential for a high wind event mainly along
the Rocky Mountain Front Tuesday. Have held off on any highlites
for the time being. Precipitation should be limited during the day
on Tuesday to some scattered showers ahead of the advancing
shortwave. While some moisture and instability will be present the
better chances of precipitation appear to be in the start of the
longer term period. Suk

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Similar to yesterday`s discussion,
latest forecast model solutions have further slowed the shortwave
trof and its associated cold front and precipitation arriving Tues.
Cold frontal passage and much of the valley rain/mtn snow are now
projected to move through our region on Tues eve and overnight.
Precip amounts haven`t changed much though, with just a few
hundredths to around a tenth of an inch expected.  Once that system
departs to the east, we`ll see cool, moist northwest flow persist
from Wed eve through Fri morning.  Some weak disturbances and
patches of moisture will move through the flow during that time,
generating periods of scattered rain/snow showers across the
region.  Again, precip amounts are expected to be minimal, with the
highest values expected to occur over the southwest counties. Models
are now in better agreement that a weak high pressure ridge will
bring more westerly flow aloft and dry conditions from Fri aftn
through Sat eve. By Sun, another Pacific weather system arrives with
more scattered showers. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
averages (low to mid 50s) each day for the remainder of this week.
Waranauskas


&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will
persist across the high plains throughout the day with some gusty
winds possible at all locations during mid afternoon. No
significant weather hazards are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  41  68  44 /   0  10  10  10
CTB  57  41  63  42 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  63  41  69  40 /  10  10  10  10
BZN  63  32  68  34 /   0  10  10  10
WEY  54  26  58  29 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  61  36  68  39 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  65  36  68  37 /  10  10  10  10
LWT  62  40  68  42 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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