Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 052130
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 05/12Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND EXTENDS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO AND EASTERN WYOMING. FARTHER
WEST...JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS AN UPPER LOW THAT
WILL BRING US INCREASING WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH THE WINDS INCREASING
CONSIDERABLY TODAY HAVE ALREADY COORDINATED WITH PSR AND ISSUED A
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GRAHAM
AND GREENLEE COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS HAVING MOVED EAST...HIGH TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM
AS YESTERDAY BUT STILL WARM AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN...MOSTLY ACROSS NORTHERN
FRINGES OF MY CWA...ALONG WITH CONTINUED STRONG WINDS FOR BOTH THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM
MST THIS EVENING FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FRIDAY FOR AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER AND WATCH/WARNING AND ADVISORY
SECTIONS BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING THESE HEADLINES OVER THE NEXT
30 HOURS OR SO.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY WEATHER AND LESSER
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS WELL AS A WARMING TREND BY LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 7 TO 9 DEGS BELOW
NORMAL FRIDAY...THEN 10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY 5 TO 7 DEGS BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR MONDAY.
THEREAFTER...HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN 4 TO 6
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...THEN 3 TO 6 DEGS BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE COOLEST MORNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR
SATURDAY).

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 06/23Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE REGION ABOVE 15K
FT AND A FEW SHALLOW CU WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST AZ. S/SW SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06/03Z. WINDS WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY. WINDS FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY AND WILL IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AFTER 06/17Z AND WILL FAVOR A
S/SW DIRECTION. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL MAINLY
BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WESTWARD...WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONG
WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM TUCSON INTO COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ON FRIDAY. RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE
DANGER RATING ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY UNTIL 8 PM MST FOR
     AZZ501>508-515.

    RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ150-151.

    RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ151>153.

    WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ507-508-
     511>513.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CANTIN

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