Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 270410
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
910 PM MST Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions through Friday except for a few
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon southeast of Tucson. A slight chance
of thunderstorms will return mainly east to south of Tucson by early
next week. Seasonably hot daytime temperatures will prevail into this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers were occurring near the International
border south of Sells at this time. IR satellite imagery depicted
warming cloud tops with these showers during the past hour.
Otherwise, precip-free conditions were ongoing across southeast
Arizona. Clear skies prevailed across western Pima County with
mostly clear skies to partly cloudy skies elsewhere.

Based on satellite/radar trends, several HRRR solutions, and the
Univ of AZ WRF-NAM and WRF-GFS, the official forecast was updated to
depict a slight chance of showers near the International border
south to southwest of Tucson until 11 pm MST. Otherwise, dry
conditions the rest of tonight and for most sections into Tuesday
morning. The exception will be near the Chiricahua Mountains in
eastern Cochise County where a slight chance of showers/tstms exists
late Tuesday morning.

Please refer to the additional sections for further detail.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 28/06Z.
Isolated -TSRA near the International border southwest of KTUS
ending around 27/06Z. Isolated -TSRA mainly near New Mexico border
Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions into Tuesday evening.
Surface wind Tuesday afternoon wly/nwly 10-20 kts with gusts near 30
kts. Strongest speeds northeast of KTUS and particularly near KSAD.
Surface wind variable in direction less than 12 kts at other times.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There is a slight chance of thunderstorms southeast
of Tucson and especially near the Chiricahua Mountains northeast of
Douglas Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions through
Friday. A slight chance of thunderstorms exists Saturday into next
Monday mainly east-to-south of Tucson. West to northwest winds of
10 to 15 mph will occur Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, especially
in the Upper Gila River Valley including Safford. 20-foot winds will
then be mostly terrain driven less than 15 mph Thursday into this
weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /149 PM MST/...Flow pattern aloft shows a 500 mb
high centered to our southwest across the northern Baja Peninsula.
This is resulting in north-northeasterly flow aloft across the area.
Still adequate moisture to work with this afternoon as PWAT values
hang around 1 inch with surface dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s.
Current KEMX radar imagery shows thunderstorms mainly east of
Tucson, primarily across the higher terrain. The expectation is most
of the convection will remain east of Tucson, with the metro area
being on the western fringe as the storms move south off the higher
terrain such as the Catalinas. Main threat will be gusty outflow
winds with areas of blowing dust possible along with brief
downpours. A pretty good push of outflow is already about to come
off the Mogollon Rim towards the Safford area. Otherwise, showers
and thunderstorms will gradually diminish after sunset.

As the subtropical high remains to our south and weakens slightly
for the next few days with increased westerly flow aloft, this will
allow drier air to move into the forecast area along with some
enhanced afternoon breezes in the Gila River valley. For Tuesday,
just a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly across portions of
Cochise County, then just a few build-ups along the international
border the remainder of the work week but still expected to remain
dry. Temperatures will cool down a couple of degrees this week but
still slightly above normal which is still quite hot. Signs are
there per both deterministic and ensemble guidance that some
increased moisture will move back in for a return to some
thunderstorm chances south and east of Tucson this weekend into
early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Francis
PREV DISCUSSION...GL

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