Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 151003
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
300 AM MST MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH SOME STORMS OVERNIGHT.
THEN...WITH THE INFLUENCE FROM ODILE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE GREATLY DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.3 INCHES WITH MODESTLY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. AS IT STANDS IT WOULD BE ANOTHER MEAGER CONVECTIVE
DAY. A COUPLE OF FACTORS SHOWING MORE PROMISE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE MID GULF AND SOUTHERN
TO MID SONORA. THIS FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH HRRR STREAMLINES FORECASTING A
STRONG RESPONSE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL MAINLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF TUCSON. ECMWF KEYS ON AN IMPULSE PUSHING UP FROM SONORA
THROUGH EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A FOCUS ON COCHISE
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES TONIGHT.

MOISTURE RAMPS UP INTO TUESDAY WITH A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFTERNOON
SHAPING UP ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UNDER STRONGER CELLS. THE ONLY THING THAT LOOKS
LIKE IT COULD KEEP TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM BEING ACTIVE IS WITH THE
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT WE COULD ACTUALLY SEE INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY TO MID THURSDAY MORNING TO TAKE THE EDGE
OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND WIND PROFILE COMBO TUE AFTERNOON.

AFTER THAT ODILE AND THE DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROUGH DICTATE OUR
WEATHER. MAJOR HURRICANE ODILE SLAMMED INTO FAR SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A 2 AM FORECAST TRACK
THAT BRINGS THE REMNANT INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THURSDAY AS A DEPRESSION. AT THAT POINT IT COULD TRACK RIGHT OVER US
AND COMPLETE A SOLID DRENCHING FOR MUCH OF SE AZ. WE`LL NEED TO
WATCH HOW WELL SHE MAINTAINS HER INTENSITY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
HER TRACK AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A WET WEEK. OUR FOCUS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOT OF
MOISTURE EARLY TO LATE TUESDAY IS ON 18Z WED TO 06Z FRI (LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) TIME PERIOD WITH THE
TRACK OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ANY TIME AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT WE COULD SEE ONE PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OR SEVERAL.
OUR CURRENT 5 DAY STORM TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM .75 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 1.5 TO 3.5 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHICH
IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH WPC ESTIMATES. IT`S LIKELY TO BE A BUSY
WEEK BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME DOWN PERIODS IN BETWEEN OUR BEST
PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/10Z.
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN EASTERLY FLOW TODAY FOR MOST TERMINALS.  THE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE WINDS DECREASING A
BIT AS A RESULT.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES MAY INCREASE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE A STRONG INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE EASTERLY BREEZE AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY.  IT
WILL EASE UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF TUCSON AND NEAR MOUNTAINS.

THEN ALL FOCUS GOES TO THE INCREASE MOISTURE AS MAJOR HURRICANE
ODILE EDGES NORTHWARD.  DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FORCED
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT.  THEN THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY FOR AN ENHANCED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. TIMING FOR THE MOISTURE MOVING
OUT OF THE REGION REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH WILL
LIKELY SEE A DOWNWARD BY THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHES THRU
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/MEADOWS/CARLAW





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