Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 240920

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
220 AM MST TUE AUG 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A drying trend will continue to limit thunderstorms to
mainly east of Tucson through Thursday. Isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms should return Friday and
Saturday. High temperatures will generally be within a few degrees
of normal into this weekend. Hotter temperatures are expected next


.DISCUSSION...SE Arizona will be on the back side of an upper level
trof that will be moving across New Mexico today. PW values across
the area are mostly below an inch. The best chance for t-storms
today will be over the mountains of Greenlee and Graham counties
with thunderstorm outflow pushing south. Will throw in some patchy
dust to the far eastern areas today. Interesting to note that the
00z UofA WRFNAM sends an outflow from Yavapai county south across
Maricopa county this evening. Could see some patchy dust in Pinal
county this evening if this occurs. At this time will not mention
any dust in Pinal this evening. Highs today will be near normal.

Thursday will see very isolated thunderstorm activity, mainly along
the international border and across the White Mountains. Highs
around normal.

For Friday, the WRFNAM is much more active than the WRFGFS as
moisture starts to return to the area. Made little change to the
official forecast as it does show an uptick in storm coverage. Could
end up being more active than what we are currently advertising.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the area on
Saturday. Highs for both Friday and Saturday will be a few degrees
below normal.

Sunday, drier air starts to push in from the west limiting storms to
the eastern areas. Highs around normal.

Monday and Tuesday, upper ridge builds over the area resulting in
warmer high temperatures with triple digit highs returning to Tucson
and other lower elevation areas. Slight chance of afternoon and
early evening thunderstorms relegated to the higher terrain east of


VFR conditions through the forecast period. Scattered cumulus clouds
during the afternoon/evening with cloud bases at 9-13k ft agl. Isold
-TSRA/-SHRA developing after 24/20z mainly over mountains east of
KTUS. Clearing skies expected aft 25/04z. Surface wind generally
less than 12 kts, except in the upper Gila River valley in the
vicinity of KSAD where surface wind will be nwly at 14-19 kts thru
25/02z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorms will occur mainly near
mountains east of Tucson through Thursday. Isolated to scattered
coverage is then expected Friday through Sunday from Tucson eastward
as monsoonal moisture increases from the south. 20-foot winds into
the upcoming weekend will be terrain driven and less than 15 mph in
most locations. Expect the potential for strong and gusty winds near
thunderstorms and stronger afternoon and early evening winds today
in the upper Gila River valley, with northwest winds of 20-25 mph.





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