Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 231645
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
945 AM MST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME BLOWING DUST
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. EXPECT LESS WIND THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS A STRONGER SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF
TUCSON WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WILL BRING
BREEZY TO VERY LOCALIZED WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE
ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

SATURDAY STILL LOOKING VERY WINDY ACROSS THE AREA. MORE ON THIS IN
THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING.
SURFACE WIND WILL THEN BECOME WLY 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL
THRU THE DAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-20 MPH. A VERY DRY SURFACE REGIME WILL PREVAIL WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE TEENS. COULD SEE A FEW PLACES NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
DURATIONS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO BE A CONCERN.

SOMEWHAT LESS WIND WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY AND BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THAT SAID...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS FOR SATURDAY...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR SATURDAY IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BUT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME
BREEZINESS SUNDAY...THEN LESS WIND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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