Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 250355
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
800 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON MONDAY. THE REGION WILL
ENJOY ONE MORE DAY OF MILD TEMPERATURES BEFORE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
RAIN CHANCES SPREAD INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT MONDAY. A SWATH OF RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF IN THE MOJAVE DESERT TUESDAY AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO UTAH.
&&

.UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. SOME
GUSTY WINDS PERSIST DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BUT HAVE WEAKENED
BELOW OUR LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND HAVE ALLOWED THAT TO
EXPIRE. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS LIKE ITS IN GOOD
SHAPE AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE
KICKED IN THIS EVENING AND WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AT OR BELOW 9KTS.
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON A NORTHEAST-EAST
DIRECTION WILL BE FAVORED WITH SPEEDS AGAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS. SKIES
CLEAR THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  LWR CIGS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
BAND OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. WE COULD SEE CIGS AS LOW AS 2-3K FT
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 10 AM TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

WINDY IN SPOTS WITHIN THE COLORADO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL
ALLOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. STRONG RIDGE
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROVIDE US AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF
VERY MILD WEATHER, ALTHOUGH FOR THOSE LIVING THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY DAY SUNDAY.

AS STRONG RIDGE SLIDES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY IT WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

MODELS STILL FORECASTING PW VALUES OF AT LEAST THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH, POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS NINE TENTHS OF AN INCH AS FAR NORTH OF
CLARK COUNTY WITH MAIN SWATH OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL
TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT SUGGESTING LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MAIN BAND THEN LIFTS NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY
NIGHT. ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END LASTLY IN LINCOLN COUNTY TUESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS STILL LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 7000 FEET SO NOT LOOKING
AT ANY SNOW IMPACTS FOR AREAS PASSES. EARLY ESTIMATE HAS BETWEEN 1
AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SPRING MTNS
AND EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES OF INYO COUNTY. WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH STORM TOTAL QPF OF BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN INCH, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WET
ROADS LEADING GREATER NUMBER OF TRAFFIC INCIDENTS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF NORTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH EVENTUALLY
STARTS TO PUSH EAST NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE BOTH SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE STARTING TO SPREAD NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND KEEPING AT LEAST SOME QPF ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND ARIZONA INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS
THEN DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY LATE FRIDAY AS THE GFS WANTS TO DROP A
BACKDOOR LOW INTO NEVADA AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE IT OFF OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA SATURDAY MORNING AND ALONG WITH GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF
QPF. THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW ANY FEATURE DROPPING SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHES THE SOUTHERN LOW EAST. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/LOCATION IS LOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM WILL GENERALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
&&


FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTH WIND 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS PSBL
WITHIN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN KIFP AND KEED TIL 03Z THIS
EVENING. STILL BREEZY SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 15-25
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. ELSEWHERE, NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR
CIGS. LOW CIGS ACCOMPANIED WITH RAIN WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. MAIN SWATH OF RAIN/LWR
CIGS WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PIERCE
LONG TERM...GORELOW

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