Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 032112
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
212 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF RETURN OF MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST...ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP THE MONSOON AT BAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE HIGH IS EAST OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS AND THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
OR WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER MEXICO WILL
BE ABLE TO MOVE/LIFT NORTHWARD AND BRING MOISTURE TO THE REGION. IN
THE MEANTIME, AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST
THURSDAY AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TO THE EAST. LOOKING AT
THE DETAILS OF EACH MODEL AND THEN BUILDING A POOR MAN`S BEST
GUESS...MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA (FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH) THURSDAY AND THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE INFLUX WOULD BEGIN IN THE FORM OF INCREASED
MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE EARLY IN THIS PROCESS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RESPONDING THEREAFTER. AT THIS POINT, THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF MOHAVE
COUNTY LOOKS PROMISING FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MUCH OF MOHAVE, EASTERN SAN BERN, EASTERN CLARK AND
EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES THEN PRIMED FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR
RAPIDLY MOVES IN SATURDAY COURTESY OF THE PACIFIC LOW LIFTING FROM
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. IN ADDITION TO THE DRIER
AIR...THE LOW WILL BRING LOWER HEIGHTS AND RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER WITH SEASONAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA AND POSSIBLY COOLER IN THE EAST. COOLER AREAWIDE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY 4-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN DECREASING BUT REMAINING SOUTHWEST.
SIMILAR WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES OTHERWISE...NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON OVER FAR NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
&&

$$

SALMEN

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