Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 050948
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
248 AM PDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA WILL STILL
ALLOW FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS NEVADA TODAY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DAY OF GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN
LINCOLN COUNTY. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS TRANSPORTING A FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHEAST TOWARD ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THIS IS EVIDENT FROM
INSPECTING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS ONE CAN SEE AN EXTENSIVE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE. OUR
AREA WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE FEED BUT WE NEVER REALLY
APPEAR TO SHAKE IT AWAY ALTOGETHER DESPITE AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WORKING INTO CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. AS A RESULT
ONCE AGAIN TODAY WE SHOULD STAND THE PROSPECT OF SEEING CUMULUS POP
UP IN EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MOUNT TRUMBULL AREA. THE HRRR STILL SHOWS SOME
WEAK RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON AS FAR WEST AS THE COLORADO RIVER BUT
THE DRIER AIR ADVANCING EAST ON WATER VAPOR RESULTS IN MY THOUGHT
THAT AT BEST THIS WOULD BE A FEW CUMULUS.

THERE IS STILL A BELT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COURTESY OF THE JET
STREAM CROSSING THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY. HOWEVER,
SEVERAL FACTORS DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS AS STRONG TODAY. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VERY, VERY WEAK AND NOT EVEN ON PAR WITH WHAT
WE WOULD SEE ON A NORMAL DAY WITH JUST THERMALS. SECONDLY, THE 700
MB WINDS ON THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH LOWER TODAY - ABOUT 20 TO 25
KTS. AS A RESULT, I HAVE CANNED THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR NORTHEAST
CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY. IN LINCOLN COUNTY, THERE IS SOME
HOPE THAT WE MAY SEE A FEW POCKETS IN EASTERN AREAS REACH THE 40 MPH
GUST MARK FOR 3 HOURS SUCH AS PANACA SUMMIT, EAGLE VALLEY, SPRING
VALLEY STATE PARK AND BEAVER DAM. THUS THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THERE FOR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES TODAY BUT WE STILL LEANED TOWARD THE
WARMER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. LOWS TONIGHT WERE TWEAKED UP A BIT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE BUT IT WILL STILL BE A
REFRESHING NIGHT AND START TO SUNDAY WITH LESS WIND. SOME OF THE
COLDER SPOTS IN LINCOLN COUNTY LIKE SPRING VALLEY STATE PARK AND
URSINE MAY DROP INTO THE 30S AS WILL THE HIGHER SPOTS IN THE SIERRA
AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS WELL UP ON MOUNT CHARLESTON. BE
PREPARED FOR THE CHILL IF YOU PLAN TO CAMP.

THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SORT OF GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA
ON SUNDAY BEFORE DISSOLVING. AS A RESULT, MOHAVE COUNTY REMAINS IN
ENOUGH OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ENTRAIN MOISTURE ON IN AND THE CHANCE
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WAS ADDED AGAIN INTO EASTERN AREAS FOR
SUNDAY. THE REST OF THE CWFA LOOKS DRY. TEMPS WILL START TO REBOUND
AND JUMP UP A DEGREE OR TWO. WITH LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WINDS
WILL ALSO BE LIGHTER. OVERALL FOR MOST AREAS THIS WILL BE THE PICK
OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND FOR THE BEST WEATHER. SUNDAY NIGHT`S LOWS
WERE RAISED UP AS WELL SEVERAL DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
ENJOY THIS LITTLE BREAK FROM THE INTENSITY OF SUMMER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A GENERALLY DRY PATTERN FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WARMING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH MOISTURE FORECASTS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF BUT NEITHER SOLUTION DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH LABOR DAY
AND IT IS WORTH MENTIONING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY. AN INCREASINGLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST
TUESDAY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS FOR THE
ARIZONA STRIP.

WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR SOUTHERN
BAJA WHICH THE MODELS INDICATE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
BEING PULLED OUR WAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME DUE TO AN EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGE MERGING WITH A RIDGE NEAR NORTHERN MEXICO EXPANDING TO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS A LITTLE WARMER
THAN THE GFS AND PROVIDES HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS BACK OVER MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT
REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE LATE THIS
MORNING AND BE STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GUSTING
OVER 20 KTS. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z TODAY WHERE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NEAR THE 160 DEGREE LINE WHICH MAY CAUSE
CONFIGURATION ISSUES.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL AGAIN BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHRA/TSRA
TODAY AFTER 18Z AND BEFORE 06Z SUNDAY IN AND AROUND MT TRUMBILL. ALL
OTHER AREAS SHOULD BE DRY. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 16Z AND 20Z TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS
EXCEPT IN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. A CLEAR SKY
IS EXPECTED EXCEPT IN AREAS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF KIGM WHERE FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AOA 10K-15K FEET WILL BE AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...ADAIR

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