Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 022219
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
319 PM PDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A VERY
GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND LIMITING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF LAS VEGAS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DRYING BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED BUT IN THE RIGHT LOCATIONS. A DRY PUNCH
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER WAVE
WAS WORKING THROUGH NORTHWEST ARIZONA INTO CLARK COUNTY AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD AID CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE STORMS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED THIS EVENING. MODELS INDICATE THAT WAVE SHIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CONVECTION DYING BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED GENERALLY OVER UTAH FRIDAY WITH A
NEARLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. OVERALL MODELS INDICATE A DRIER
AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE IS INDICATED MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FEATURE BUT IT SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING. THE
UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT FARTHER EAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. MODELS TREND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE
STABLE SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
SIERRA AND SPRING MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY
SUNDAY WITH THE FLOW OVER THE CWA BECOMING ALMOST SOUTHWESTERLY. IN
THEORY THIS WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DRYING BUT THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE
DEVELOPING SOME SORT OF WEAK WAVE AND PUSHING UP SOME MORE MOISTURE
INTO MOHAVE COUNTY SO I INCREASED THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE THERE.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

IT APPEARS THE FIRST BREAK IN THE MONSOONAL PATTERN WILL OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN INCREASINGLY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
THIS DRY AND STABLE FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROUGH THAT
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST THEN PARKS OFFSHORE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. I WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...CENTRAL NEVADA AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA ZONES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT THAT IS STILL QUITE HOT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND COLORADO
RIVER REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM LIGHT
EAST/SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 01Z THIS EVENING...CONTINUING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MUCH OF
FRIDAY FAVORING AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. SOUTH WINDS SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER 22-23Z UP TO 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING
GENERALLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS WITH VERY ISOLATED STORMS SOUTH. BASES
AS LOW AS 5-7 KFT IN STORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MAINLY NORTH OF LAS VEGAS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...ADAIR



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