Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 272148
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
250 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Drier and more stable air will work into the region
Sunday confining thunderstorms to mainly Mohave County. Dry
conditions along with above normal temperatures are expected Monday
and Tuesday before a weak system brings a slight chance of showers
and storms back into the picture Wednesday and Thursday.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Tuesday.

Things have been fairly quiet this afternoon, but a few isolated
storms have developed over the higher terrain of southern Nevada,
eastern San Bernardino and Mohave Counties. This trend is expected
to continue through the remainder of the afternoon as moisture and
instability remain in place. With the lack of any upper forcing most
storms are expected to dissipate early this evening with loss of
heating. However, some weak vorticity over eastern Mohave County
could keep storms going a little longer, but should end by midnight.

High pressure pushing in from the southwest will nudge the moisture
and instability east on Sunday leaving much of the area dry. Still
keeping some slight pops over the eastern areas of Mohave County,
but feel that it will be tough to get anything going with the drier
and more stable airmass advecting in. With more sunshine on Sunday
temperatures will climb to around normal. Even drier and more stable
air will work into the region Monday and Tuesday bringing
temperatures back into the above normal category, but by only 3-5
degrees.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday.

Wednesday and Thursday get a bit tricker with regards to amount of
moisture expected to push back into the region. A trough digging off
the west coast is forecast to bring a southwest flow over the area,
but at the same time high pressure over the southern states will
push west. The models are indicating some low level moisture being
advected northward between the trough and the high into portions of
Arizona. How far west this moisture is able to make it is the big
question. Both the GFS and ECMWF have backed off on how far the
moisture will push west Wednesday basically leaving the entire CWA
dry. Have left in some slight chance pops, but if the models
continue to keep that moisture push east than pops will need to be
removed completely on Wednesday. They still show some moisture on
Thursday, but like Wednesday the trend is downward. Its possible
that any shower activity will remain fully east of the forecast area
Wednesday and Thursday. The region should be completely dry Friday
and Saturday as the area will be under the influence of the trough.
Temperatures Wednesday through Saturday look near to slightly above
normal.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Isolated thunderstorms are possible over
the Spring Mountains this afternoon and evening but are unlikely at
the terminal. Winds will become southeasterly the south overnight,
favoring normal diurnal trends. Scattered clouds will diminish
overnight into Sunday when dry conditions are expected.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly across
Northwest Arizona with more isolated shower activity across southern
Nevada and southeast California. Cloud cover will diminish over time
along and east of the Colorado River with drier conditions expected
for Sunday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Long Term...Gorelow
Aviation...Berc

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