Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 122134
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
230 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY
OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. SOME MOISTURE WILL START TO FILTER BACK
INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA SUNDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE REGION LEADING TO A
BETTER CHANCE AND MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE
WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW CUMULUS OVER EASTERN
MOHAVE AND FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES...BUT WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO DO MUCH AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES WEST
THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL HELP BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
PW VALUES INTO NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY MORE
UNSTABLE AIR. THIS INVERTED TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SHOULD NOT HELP
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WE SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWING SUNDAY TO THE BE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...BUT WE
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS 112 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST MONDAY
WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TURN A
LITTLE MORE NORTHWEST AND MAY HAVE A JUST ENOUGH OF AN EFFECT ON SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY TO BRING A LITTLE MORE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER SAN BERN COUNTY SO FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL ALSO SEE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH MOST OF THOSE STORMS
BEING PULSE TYPE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH READINGS RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
MOHAVE COUNTY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE
TRACKING OF AN INVERTED TROUGH...WITH THE NAM MOST PRONOUNCED WITH
THE FEATURE. THE NAM SOLUTION WOULD ACT TO PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL
TRIGGERING MECHANISM...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL TO HAVE A MORE ACTIVE
DAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THAT FEATURE EVOLVES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE TO ACT AS
A TRIGGERING MECHANISM. CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE MORE TERRAIN
DRIVEN. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ON THURSDAY...BUT
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH TO BE RECYCLED
IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER EAST ON
FRIDAY...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WITH FURTHER ADVANCEMENT OF THE DRIER AIR ON SATURDAY
UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. ONE OF THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IS IN HOW MUCH DRYING ACTUALLY OCCURS. IF WE DRY OUT AS
MUCH AS THE ECMWF IS INDICATING MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS LIKELY
LATE IN NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE PEACH SPRINGS AND MORMON MESA APPROACH CORRIDORS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THIS EVENING
AROUND 7 KTS THEN SOUTHWEST 6-8 KTS AFTER 03Z. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN AFTER 19Z SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 6-8
KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DRY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WINDS UNDER
10KTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WITH THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING WEST AND NORTH
MONDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...GORELOW
LONG TERM...CZYZYK

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