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FXXX12 KWNP 291230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Mar 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels with Region 2303 (N18W85, Dao/beta)
producing the majority of the low level C-class activity.  The largest
flare of the period was a C3/Sf at 29/0656 UTC from Region 2303.  Region
2303 continued to be in a growth phase as it approached the NW limb.
Region 2305 (S10W27, Dhi/beta) continued to exhibit consolidation and
magnetic simplification.  Slight to moderate growth was observed in
Region 2315 (S20W22, Dro/beta).  New Region 2316 (S21E50, Cro/beta) was
numbered.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for an
isolated M-class (R1-Minor) flare for the next three days (29-31 Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is forecast
to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on days
two through three (30-31 Mar). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at or near background conditions
(Below S1-Minor) for the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Weak geomagnetic disturbances continued during the period, however onset
of the anticipated polar extension coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) has not yet been observed.  Solar wind speeds continued to decrease
from approximately 420 km/s to 360 km/s.  Total field increased to 15 nT
by mid-period but decreased to near 10 nT by the end of the period.  The
Bz component deflected southward between 28/1923 UTC and 29/1005 UTC
reaching a maximum of -9 nT.  Phi angle was mostly negative, but on the
fringe of the neutral line, for the majority of the period.

Solar wind parameters are likely to become enhanced by late on day one
and continue through the forecast period (29-31 Mar) as a southern polar
extension CH HSS becomes geoeffective.  Solar wind speeds in the 600-700
km/s range are possible based on recurrent data.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  An isolated active
period was observed during the 29/0000-0300 UTC time frame due to a
prolonged period of southward Bz.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
through late in the UTC day on day one (29 Mar).  An increase to active
to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) is likely by the end of the day as a
southern polar CH HSS extension becomes geoeffective.  Quiet to active
levels are expected through days two and three (30-31 Mar) as CH HSS
activity persists. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.