Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 180031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2242 (S18W01,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two M-class events, including an M1 flare
(R1-Minor) at 17/0110 UTC and an M8/2b flare (R2-Moderate) at 17/0451
UTC, which was the largest event of the period. The M8 flare had
associated Type II (est speed 910 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as
well as a 320 sfu Tenflare. The majority of the ejecta from the
associated coronal mass ejection (CME) had a southerly trajectory.
However, there is a weak Earthward component and model output suggests
arrival at Earth late on 19 Dec.

Region 2242 continued to exhibit signs of growth as well as separation
in the leader spots while maintaining multiple magnetic deltas across an
east-west polarity inversion line.

Region 2241 (S10E19, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) also continued to show growth
and developed a delta magnetic configuration during the period. The
region produced two M1 flares at 17/0150 UTC and 17/1901 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar activity for the next three days (18-20 Dec) is likely to be
moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) as Regions 2241 and 2242 continue to
grow in areal coverage as well as maintain complex magnetic structures.
There is also a slight chance for an isolated X-class event (R3-Strong)
during the forecast period.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (18-20 Dec). There is a slight
chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to
potential for a proton producing solar event from Regions 2241 or 2242.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters, measured at ACE, were indicative normal
ambient background levels. Solar wind speeds were steady near 400 km/s.
The total field remained steady between 4 nT and 6 nT while the Bz
component fluctuated between +/- 6 nT. Phi angle was in a primarily
positive (away) orientation for most of the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain at normal ambient
background levels for the majority of days one and two (18-19 Dec).
Disturbed conditions are anticipated beginning late on 19 Dec due to the
arrival of the CME associated with the M8 flare observed earlier today.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled (below
G1-Minor) for the majority of days one and two (18-19 Dec). Unsettled to
active conditions are expected to begin late on 19 Dec, with a chance
for isolated minor storm periods (G1-Minor) due to the arrival of the
CME associated with the M8 flare observed earlier today.



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