Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 261231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Nov 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period
was a C2/Sn at 26/0617 UTC from Region 2217 (S20E36, Eai/beta-gamma),
which decayed in the intermediate and trailer portions.  The only region
to exhibit any significant growth was Region 2219 (N05W08, Dri/beta),
which was responsible for a C1/Sf flare at 26/0034 UTC.  The remaining
regions were stable or decaying.  A new region near N03E78 is being
monitored and appears to have been responsible for a C1 flare at 25/2045
UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels. A chance remains for an
M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate), during the period (26-28 Nov).
Regions 2209 and 2217 appear to be the most likely sources for any
significant flare production.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was
at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels for the forecast period (26-28 Nov). There remains a
slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement at or above
the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm threshold for day one (26 Nov),
before Region 2209 completely transits off the visible disk.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The anticipated sector change and high speed stream has not materialized
yet.  Solar wind was nominal at the ACE spacecraft, with speeds in the
mid 300 km/s range.  Phi remained mostly positive and Bt was at or below
6 nT.  Bz was mostly negative, dipping as low as -5 nT.

.Forecast...
WSA-Enlil continues to suggest increasing wind speed over the next
couple of days while WSA depicts a geoeffective negative polarity high
speed stream in effect now.  The latest synoptic analysis and SDO/AIA
193 imagery suggest the northern extension of the southern polar hole
may have retreated over the past 24 hours, thus delaying the onset.
There is still the possibility of connecting with this feature during
the forecast period (26-28 Nov), with high speed stream conditions
reflected at ACE.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels in response to the nominal
solar wind conditions.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next
two days (26-27 Nov) if the high speed stream becomes geoeffective on
the 26th. Mostly quiet conditions are forecast for day three (28 Nov),
as CH conditions wane.


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