Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 301230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Aug 30 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 2403 (S15W82, Dao/beta),
produced the largest flare of the period, a long duration M1 at 30/0423
UTC, as it continued to rotate around the west limb. Region 2405
(S20E09, Bxo/beta) and Region 2406 (N03E22, Bxo/beta) remained
relatively simple and inactive through the period. No Earth-directed
coronal mass ejections were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to decrease over the forecast period as
Region 2403 continues its transit beyond the SW limb. On day one (30
Aug), solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an isolated X-class (R3-Strong
or greater) flare. Activity is expected to decrease on day two (31 Aug)
to low levels with a chance for an M-class flare. A further decrease to
a chance for C-class flares is expected by day three (01 Sep).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels with a chance for high levels for the forecast period
(30 Aug-01 Sep). A slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event
(S1-Minor) exists on day one (30 Aug) due to flare potential from Region
2403. The chance for an event decreases on days two and three (31
Aug-01 Sep) as Region 2403 rotates around the SW limb.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were enhanced
by the effects of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.
Solar wind velocities were around 460 km/s at the beginning of the
period and trended down to around 420 km/s by the end of the period as
the influence from the coronal hole begins to subsides. Total field has
remained steady around 5 nT while Bz component has maintained a
predominantly northward direction. Phi was mostly negative (towards)
over the past 24 hours.

.Forecast...
A gradual decline in solar wind velocity is expected on days one and two
(30-31 Aug) as the influence of the coronal hole slowly wanes. Day three
(01 Sep) is expected to undergo enhancements in the solar wind
parameters due to a solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) followed by a
co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a positive polarity CH
HSS.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
through midday on day three (30 Aug-01 Sep) as CH HSS effects subside.
By mid to late on day three, a SSBC followed by a CIR preceding the next
CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective raising activity to unsettled
to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels.



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