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000
FXXX12 KWNP 250031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Oct 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels with an X3/3b (R3-Strong) flare from
Region 2192 (S12W21, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) at 24/2141 UTC.  At this
time, no radio reports have been received.  The same region produced an
impulsive M4-flare earlier at 24/0748 UTC and five mid-level C-class
flares.  The M-flare was accompanied by Type II (est speed 664
km/s) and Type IV emissions.  The CME was subsequently observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery departing the southwest limb.  The ejecta was
moving at approximately 700-800 km/s and directed well south of the
ecliptic.  No other Earth-directed eruptions were noted, however we are
currently waiting on further SOHO/LASCO imagery to determine if a CME
was associated with todays X3 flare.

Region 2192 dominated the visible disk, although recent ground reports
suggest the area has decreased slightly from yesterday.  Slight decay
and consolidation was noted in the intermediate and trailer spots.  This
trend was coupled with some consolidation of the magnetic field in the
intermediate part of the region.

New Regions 2196 (S03E66, Hsx/alpha) and 2197 (S12E62, Axx/alpha) were
numbered this period but were otherwise unremarkable.  Region 2195
(N08E47, Cso/beta) developed some trailer spots while the remaining
regions were stable or decaying.

.Forecast...
M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate)) flare activity is expected with a
chance for further X-class (R3 or greater) flares over the next three
days (25-27 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels,
reaching a peak value of 6,240 pfu at 24/1545 UTC.  The greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to fluctuate between
moderate and high levels for the first two days of the forecast period
(25-26 Oct), then decline to normal to moderate levels.  A warning has
been issued for a potential 10 MeV proton event on day 1 (25 Oct) in
response to the X3 flare described above.  There is a continued chance
for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at or above the S1 (Minor) solar
radiation storm level over the next three days (25-27 Oct) as Region
2192 rotates into an increasingly threatening position.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft reflected either
nominal conditions or the influence of a modest positive polarity
equatorial coronal hole.  Wind speed was in the low-mid 400 km/s range.
Phi remained mostly positive.  Bt was at or below 7 nT and Bz remained
above -6 nT.

.Forecast...
Modest coronal hole effects are expected to give way to nominal
conditions by day 2 (26 Oct).  A sector boundary change to a negative
solar sector is possible on day three (27 Oct).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to the
modest positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity are expected on days
one and two (25-26 Oct), with a chance for an isolated active period.
There is an increased chance for an active period on day three (27 Oct)
with the anticipated sector boundary crossing.



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