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FXXX12 KWNP 261230

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Jul 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low, with only B-class flares observed from
beyond the west limb. There are currently no numbered sunspot regions on
the disk and no Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
Radio Blackout) during the remainder of day one (26 Jul), due primarily
to Region 2567 (N05, L=167), which recently rotated beyond the west
limb; and another active region that developed south of the solar
equator and is also located just beyond the west limb. Activity is
expected to remain very low, with only a slight chance for C-class
flares on days two and three (27-28 Jul) as the two active regions
rotate further beyond the west limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels
throughout the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (26-28 Jul) and the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a return to more nominal,
background-like conditions. Solar wind speed decreased from about 450
km/s to near 350 km/s. Total IMF strength was variable and ranged
primarily between 2 to 6 nT. The Bz component began the period in a
pronounced period of southward direction until about 25/1615 UTC, after
which it re-orientated and underwent weaker deviations afterwards. The
phi angle experienced some oscillations between positive and negative
sectors until approximately 25/2145 UTC, when it shifted into a positive
sector. The phi angle deflected again into a negative sector at 26/0926
UTC for the remainder of the period.

Later on day one (26 Jul), a CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective
and solar wind parameters are likely to become enhanced. Enhanced
conditions are expected to continue into days two and three (27-28 Jul)
as additional CH HSSs keep the solar wind environment disturbed.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field responded with an overall planetary response of
active levels between 25/1200-1800 UTC, due primarily to the slightly
enhanced solar wind environment and pronounced periods of favorable IMF
orientation. Conditions became quiet afterwards.

The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active conditions later on
day one (26 Jul) as an anticipated CH HSS becomes geoeffective.
Geomagnetic responses are expected to continue at primarily quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated periods of active conditions on days two
and three (27-28 Jul) as CH HSS effects continue. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.