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FXXX12 KWNP 100031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Oct 10 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low.  Region 2429 (S19E18) decayed to plage
while Region 2430 (S17E47, Hsx/alpha) was stable.  A B1 flare, the only
reportable event of the period, was observed at 09/2139 UTC from an
unnumbered region behind the southeast limb.  No Earth-directed coronal
mass ejections were observed during the period.

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flares for the forecast period (10-12 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high to very high levels
during the period, reaching a peak flux of 57,093 pfu at 09/1505 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected be at high levels with
very high levels likely for the forecast period (10-12 Oct) due to
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to remain at background (Below S1-Minor)

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a trans-equatorial
positive polarity CH HSS.  Solar wind speed declined slowly over the
period from a high of 809 km/s at 09/0154 UTC to around 650 km/s by the
end of the period.  Total field ranged from 1 nT to 6 nT while the Bz
component was between +/-5 nT.  Phi angle was mostly positive (away).

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at elevated levels
through the forecast period as CH HSS effects persist. Solar wind
speeds are expected to slowly decline on days one and two (10-11 Oct)
as effects diminish.  Another enhancement in total field intensity and
solar wind speed is likely by day three (12 Oct) due to a transition
into a northern positive polarity CH HSS.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels due to waning CH
HSS effects.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on
days one and two (10-11 Oct) with an isolated period of G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm conditions possible early on day one as CH HSS effects
slowly diminish.  By mid to late on day three (12 Sep) activity is
expected to reach the G1 (Minor) storm levels as the Earth transitions
into a northern positive polarity CH HSS. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.