Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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474
FXXX12 KWNP 161230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Aug 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low. Region 2671 (N10E55, Eai/beta) grew slightly
during the period and managed a C1/Sf at 15/1352 UTC. This flare was
associated with a CME off the E limb, first seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2
imagery at 15/1536 UTC. Forecaster analysis/WSA modeling determined the
CME to be off the Sun-Earth line. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a chance for C-class
flares and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate
radio blackouts) all three days (16-18 Aug), due to the flare potential
of Region 2671.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels,
with a peak flux of 1,340 pfu at 15/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high
levels on day one (16 Aug) due to electron redistribution effects
associate with CIR arrival. The electron flux is anticipated to be at
normal to moderate levels on day two (17 Aug) and moderate to high
levels on day three (18 Aug) due to effects associated with CIR passage
and CH HSS onset. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
remain at background levels all three days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of ambient-background conditions.
Total field strength was between 3 to 6 nT with only weak deviations in
the Bz component. Solar wind speed decreased from 425 km/s early in the
period to near 350 km/s by the periods end. The phi angle remained
mainly in a negative orientation until 16/0100 UTC, when a switch to a
positive sector was observed.

.Forecast...
Parameters are expected to become enhanced on day one (16 Aug) due to an
anticipated solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC); followed by CIR
arrival and CH HSS onset. Solar wind speed is anticipated to increase to
speeds of 600-700 km/s by day two and into day three (17-18 Aug) as CH
HSS effects increase.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, with a chance
for minor (G1-Minor) storming, on day one (16 Aug) due to CIR arrival
and CH HSS onset. Day two (17 Aug) is expected to experience unsettled
to active conditions, with likely periods of G1 storming and chance for
G2 (Moderate) storming. Day three (18 Aug) is expected to be at
predominantly unsettled to active levels, and an isolated period of G1
storming likely.



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