Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
322 PM EDT Fri Jan 5 2018

...Near normal winter/spring flood potential...

The winter/spring flood potential for eastern New York and
Western New England is near normal. The potential for flooding
due to freeze-up ice jams is slightly above normal in the near
term. A map of the flood potential outlook, not including ice
jam potential, can be found at:
http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential

This is the first in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by
the National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to
the potential for flooding across eastern New York State,
southern Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield
County Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the
Hudson, Mohawk and Housatonic.

This outlook is valid for the two-week period from January 5th
to the 18th.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

Snow amounts ranged from depths of 1 to 2 feet (with about 2 to
4 inches of liquid equivalent) in the Adirondacks to less than
a foot of snow depth in the Catskills (mostly less than an inch
of liquid equivalent, with isolated 1.5 inch liquid reports).
Elsewhere, the late week storm resulted in 2 to 4 inches of
snowfall in the Capital Region and Mohawk Valley with totals of
a foot of new snow recorded in western New England.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

Extremely cold temperatures have built significant amounts of
river ice and near term temperatures dropping even colder will
lead to the creation of more river ice. Isolated freeze up jams
have been reported and there is still a risk for other isolated
freeze up jams.

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day
streamflow averages across western New England and eastern New 345
York are generally below normal, with a few locations near
normal.

...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) wells, groundwater
levels range from normal to much below normal.

Soil moisture is near to below normal and the ground is frozen.

...WATER SUPPLY...

New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP)
water supply reservoirs are at 75.1 percent of capacity, which
is 12.2 percent below normal storage capacity.

Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoirs in the
Black River and Upper Hudson watersheds are all near target
elevations for this time of year.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

Despite near-term extreme cold temperatures, the 6 to 10 day
(for Jan 4-10) and 8 to 14 day (for Jan 12-18) outlooks indicate
moderating temperatures, with near to above normal temperatures
for the latter part of this two week outlook period. Both
outlooks also call for the active weather to continue, with
above normal precipitation in the two week outlook period. This
includes a potential mixed precipitation event shaping up for
the 11th and 12th.

...SUMMARY...

The flood potential is near normal for this time of year and
flood potential for ice jam flooding is somewhat above normal
in the near term. No significant snow melt flooding is currently
anticipated through the outlook period, however the threat for
freeze up ice jams is above normal in the near term.

The second Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for Thursday,
January 18th.

It is important to remember that heavy rain can cause flooding
at any time of year. Extended hydrologic information will be
included in the Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary at

forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=ALY

Observed and 3 day forecast river information can be found on our
web page at www.weather.gov/albany. Three to seven day ensemble
forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs.

$$

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/albany

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@NWSAlbany



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