Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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CTC005-MAC003-NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-
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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
558 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017


...WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK 6 FOR EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THIS IS THE SIXTH OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE
HUDSON...THE MOHAWK...AND THE HOUSATONIC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD MARCH 16TH TO MARCH
30TH.

...OVERVIEW...

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...FROM TWO TO EIGHT DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAVE ENDED ANY SNOWMELT. NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK HAS RECEIVED A SIGNIFICANT BOOST WITH THE
SNOW STORM ON THE 14TH OF MARCH...BRINGING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL
BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA...AND TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE WESTERN
MOHAWK RIVER AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER IN NEW YORK AND THE HEADWATERS
OF THE DEERFIELD RIVER IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW DEPTHS HAVE BEEN BOLSTERED BY SNOWFALL ON THE 14TH OF
MARCH...LEADING TO SNOW DEPTHS RANGING FROM ONE TO ONE AND A HALF
FEET IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LITCHFIELD HILLS AND BERKSHIRES.
THIS EQUATES TO ABOUT ONE AND HALF TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF
LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

SNOW DEPTHS IN THE CATSKILLS AND CAPITAL REGION RANGED FROM ONE
AND A HALF TO TWO FEET...THOUGH STORM TOTALS FOR THE 14TH
INDICATED AS MUCH AS THREE FEET OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
OF THE CATSKILLS. THIS EQUATES TO BETWEEN TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF
WATER EQUIVALENT...WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SNOW PACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT
REMAINS AN ELEVATION DEPENDENT MIXED BAG...WITH LOWER ELEVATIONS
AT ABOUT A FOOT TO A FOOT AND A HALF OF SNOW DEPTH...AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS CARRYING UP TO NEARLY THREE FEET OF SNOW DEPTH...WHICH
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE BIG WINNER IN THE MARCH 14TH STORM FOR SNOWFALL WAS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE OVER THREE FEET FELL IN SOME
LOCATIONS. WITH THIS LATEST INFUSION OF SNOW...THE ADIRONDACKS
ALSO CONTINUE THEIR ABOVE NORMAL SNOW TREND FOR THIS
WINTER...WITH SNOW DEPTHS RANGING FROM ONE TO TWO FEET...UP TO
THREE FEET ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. MANY SNOW SURVEYS WERE
DELAYED DUE TO THE SNOW STORM...HOWEVER ONE AND A HALF TO FOUR AND
A QUARTER INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT WERE MEASURED IN THE GREAT
SACANDAGA WATERSHED.

...RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

28 DAY STREAMFLOW AVERAGES IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW
YORK RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO
U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/ STREAMGAGES. THE NORMAL STREAMFLOWS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH
STREAMFLOWS INCREASING TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

GROUNDWATER LEVELS IN MOST LOCATIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...THOUGH
LINGERING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WERE NOTED IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND
HUDSON VALLEY...ACCORDING TO U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/
GROUNDWATER WELLS. RECENT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE
LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF RUNOFF RECHARGING GROUNDWATER
LEVELS...HOWEVER ANY MELT OF THE RECENT SNOWFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME RECHARGE OF GROUNDWATER LEVELS. GRIFFIN NEW
YORK LOCATED IN SOUTHEASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY HAD A GROUNDWATER
LEVEL BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE AS OF 14 MARCH 2017.
MEANWHILE THE WELL AT SUNY ALBANY WAS WITHIN ITS LOWEST MEDIAN
GROUNDWATER LEVEL AS OF 14 MARCH 2017.

NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES COURTESY OF THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ 15 MARCH 2017 CONTINUE TO INDICATE
SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

...WATER SUPPLY...

SNOWMELT TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF FEBRUARY HAS FILLED MANY
RESERVOIRS BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION /NYCDEP/
WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE AT 90 PERCENT OF CAPACITY...WHICH IS
RIGHT AT NORMAL STORAGE CAPACITY. THIS IS ONE PERCENT HIGHER THAN
AT THE TIME OF THE LAST OUTLOOK...TWO WEEKS AGO.

HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT RESERVOIRS IN THE
BLACK RIVER...AND UPPER HUDSON WATERSHEDS...ARE ALL ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS A RESULT OF THE EARLIER THAN
NORMAL SNOWMELT.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THIS WEEKEND. A LIGHT
TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL...MAINLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...IS
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. ICE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ON AREA
LAKES...STREAMS...AND RIVERS THROUGH THE END OF THIS
WEEK...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR RIVER ICE JAM FLOODING REMAINS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE 22ND THROUGH THE 26TH OF MARCH...
AS WELL AS THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 24TH THROUGH THE
30TH...BOTH CALL FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

...SUMMARY...

SNOWPACK HAS RECEIVED A SIGNIFICANT BOOST WITH THE SNOW STORM ON
THE 14TH OF MARCH...BRINGING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL BACK INTO THE
NORMAL RANGE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND TO ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK RIVER AND UPPER
HUDSON RIVER IN NEW YORK AND THE HEADWATERS OF THE DEERFIELD RIVER
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. HOWEVER THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN THE
LONGER TERM...BEYOND THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TWO
WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD. THIS JUST KICKS THE FLOOD THREAT CAN DOWN THE
ROAD...SO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE OUTLOOKS AND OTHER HYDROLOGIC
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE ALBANY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THE SEVENTH WINTER SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR
THURSDAY...MARCH 30TH. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE BELOW NORMAL
SNOWPACK AND NO RIVER ICE.

OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB
PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY. ENSEMBLE FORECAST INFORMATION CAN
BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ERH/MMEFS.


$$

BEW



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