Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FGUS71 KILN 182156

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
456 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

...Near Normal Flood Risk through February 1...

Normal flood potential means at least some flooding is possible.
Above normal flood potential means more widespread flooding is
possible with some points possibly reaching moderate or major
flood levels.

This is a biweekly flood outlook issued by local NWS offices in
winter and early spring to summarize basin conditions and to
assess the potential for flooding. The outlooks are based on
current and forecast hydrometeorological conditions.

The factors considered when determining flood potential include
current streamflow and reservoir levels compared to normal for
the period, water equivalent in any snow pack, soil moisture
and expected precipitation.

Snow depth ranged from 2 to 3 inches in southeast Indiana, to 3 to
5 inches in much of southern Ohio and Northern Kentucky, to 5 to 7
inches in the Scioto basin and Licking Ohio basins. Despite the
widespread snow depth, snow water equivalent generally was about
0.3 inch or less through most of the region, with some areas of
central Ohio as high as 0.5 to 0.7 inches of water equivalent.

Streamflow was generally near to slightly above normal for
tributaries, and slightly above normal for the Ohio river itself.
Snowmelt over the next few days, along with as much as a half inch
of rain through much of the area, will serve to raise streamflow
to above normal levels for early next week.

Ice a few inches thick was observed on the St. Marys river, with
slightly lesser thickness on the upper Scioto, upper Great Miami,
Mad rivers, as well as the Licking River of Ohio. Ice thickness
of this depth is where concern begins for ice jam flood issues if
the thickness remains when a significant warm up or moderate to
heavy rain occurs. At the time of this issuance, with river flow
being fairly low, the expected warm up is not likely to yield a
significant ice jam threat.

Soil moisture per measurements form the Natural Resources
Conservations Service and modeled soil moisture for the region
was generally near to below normal for mid January.

Area reservoirs were operating at optimum flood control capacity,
with lake levels at winter flood control pool level.

Over the next 7 days, through Friday January 26, there will likely
be rises on area rivers from the combined snowmelt and rainfall
occurring from January 22 through 24, but not a significant risk
of river flooding. Additional rainfall is expected in the January
26 timeframe as of this writing. With above freezing temperatures
and precipitation, the flood potential does raise slightly.

For the second week of the outlook period, the Climate Prediction
Center 8 to 14 day outlook is projecting above normal temperature
and above normal precipitation. So risk for minor flooding does
increase during week 2 of the outlook period.

Real time river information and forecasts for specific locations
along rivers across Central and Southern Ohio...Northern Kentucky
and Southeast Indiana can be found at


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