Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 182118

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

A long-wave trough will establish itself in the western U.S.
throughout the extended period, with occasional southeastward-moving
shortwaves migrating around the base of the trough into portions of
the Southwest.  At the surface, a lee trough will initially separate
an increasingly moist maritime tropical airmass across much of the
central and eastern U.S. from a drier, continental airmass over the
southern High Plains, resulting in elevated to locally critical fire
weather conditions on D3/Tue afternoon.  After D3/Tue, a surface
ridge will migrate southward across the Plains and remain nearly
stationary until around D6/Fri, when lee cyclogenesis and surface
troughing reestablishes itself.  Although details are unclear, it
appears that some fire weather threat will exist in portions of the
southern High Plains from D6/Fri through the end of the forecast

...D3/Tue - Portions of the southern High Plains...
A modest increase of westerly downslope surface flow will occur in
the region during peak heating behind a dryline over central
Oklahoma and west-central Texas.  At this time, models suggest that
RH values should stay mostly above critical thresholds except for on
a localized/spotty basis.  Given RH profiles and 15-25 mph wind
speeds across the region, 40% probabilities have been maintained for
this forecast.

...D6/Fri onward - Portions of the southern High Plains...
Lee troughing will become re-established across the region as
long-wave troughing persists in the West.  Although specific
positioning of this trough is difficult to pinpoint at this
timeframe, it appears that windy and dry surface conditions will
exist west of the trough and result in elevated to perhaps critical
fire weather conditions.  The greatest confidence in heightened fire
weather concerns exists on D6/Fri, and 40% probabilities have been
introduced to address this potential threat.

..Cook.. 02/18/2018

...Please see for graphic product...

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