Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 062017
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2016

VALID 081200Z - 141200Z

A LARGE CLOSED LOW AFFECTING THE GREAT PLAINS WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE...AND FOSTER A GENERAL WEAKENING OF FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
SRN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM AND
WEST TX ON SUN/D3 AND MON/D4...WHERE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALIGN
WITH A DRY/WARM AIR MASS. PERIODS OF INCREASING SLY WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR ON SUN/D3 AND MON/D4 OVER THE NRN DAKOTAS...WHILE MOISTURE
RETURN REMAINS LIMITED. LATER IN THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS...AND SHOULD CORRESPOND TO
GENERALLY WEAKER SFC WINDS AND MORE BENIGN CONDITIONS FOR FIRE
WEATHER. ADDITIONALLY...UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN INCREASES TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

...SUN/D3 THROUGH TUE/D5 -- PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS...
A SLOW-MOVING MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WILL
MAINTAIN A BELT OF STRONG WLY TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT OF A LEE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM WEST TX NWD INTO CNTRL
KS...WITH STRONG SWLY SFC WINDS AMIDST A VERY DRY AND WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER POSITIONED W OF THE SFC TROUGH. ON SUN/D3...THE
STRONGEST SFC WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED FROM THE TX TRANS-PECOS INTO THE
TX PANHANDLE...BUT CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM NEAR THE
TX BIG BEND INTO SERN NM...WHERE FUELS REMAIN MOST RECEPTIVE. THE
SAME AREA IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS AGAIN ON
MON/D4...AS WINDS BECOME WLY AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH ACCELERATES
EWD...AND THE DRYLINE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER CNTRL TX INTO E-CNTRL
KS.

A GRADUAL WEAKENING IN LOW-MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW WILL OCCUR ON TUE/D5
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICALLY
STRONG WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER...A WARM/DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WITH A 40 PERCENT DESIGNATION
MAINTAINED.

..ROGERS.. 05/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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