Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 311643
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VALID 311700Z - 011200Z

THE ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NM AND
NRN/ERN AZ HAS BEEN EXPANDED SWD TO INCLUDE MORE OF SERN AZ AND SWRN
NM. RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SERN AZ/SWRN
NM WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER N. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

..GLEASON.. 05/31/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0336 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ERRATICALLY IN A GENERAL SEWD
DIRECTION OUT OF SRN AZ INTO NWRN MX...WHILE MIDLEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE CNTRL CA COAST. A MORE POTENT NRN-STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
VALLEY...AND WILL AID IN THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS...WITH THE WRN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT ENTERING THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN
POTENTIAL E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OF NM/CO.

...PARTS OF WRN NM AND NRN/ERN AZ...
A RIBBON OF ENHANCED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF
NM/AZ ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER SRN AZ. WITH RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING POSITIONED TO
THE E OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM...A VERY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
WILL DEVELOP AMIDST STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING. DESPITE SLOW
STORM MOTIONS /LESS THAN 10 KT/...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY ANY DEVELOPING TSTMS...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. GUSTY/ERRATIC DOWNDRAFT WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LARGE INVERTED-V PROFILES.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$



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