Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 251507

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Valid 251700Z - 261200Z


Ongoing forecast is on track with no changes needed.  Critical fire
weather conditions are most likely in lower elevations of
central/west-central New Mexico in addition to all areas of
southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico.  Southwesterly
low-level flow will gradually increase to 20+ mph in most areas
during the afternoon in conjunction with an approaching mid-level
speed max, with continued dry fuels and near single-digit RH values
all characteristic of a critical fire weather threat in these areas.

See the previous discussion below for more information.

..Cook.. 03/25/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0240 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

A closed low across the south-central United States will lift
northeast toward the Great Lakes as an upstream low-amplitude,
fast-moving trough will move from California toward the southern
Plains. At the surface, cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains
will act to strengthen the pressure gradient by late in the forecast

...Southwest United States...
Mid-level, short-wave ridging will be in place across southwest
United States during the day on Saturday, ahead of the
aforementioned trough. This ridge will favor another day of warm,
dry conditions across portions of the southwest. Given the dry
airmass in place, these warm temperatures will allow for minimum
afternoon relative humidity to fall into the 7-15% range.

Mid-level flow will increase from west-to-east across the area
during the afternoon as the trough approaches. Forecast soundings
suggest a deeply mixed boundary layer will allow for downward
transport of this stronger flow across the area. At present the area
across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico appear the most
likely to experience strong, gusty winds coinciding with the minimum
in relative humidity. Here, critical fire-weather conditions appear
likely for at least a few hours. Surrounding the critical
fire-weather area, especially farther east, low-level winds appear
to be weaker which should act to temper the overall fire-weather
threat somewhat. The weaker winds appear likely due to the enhanced
mid-level flow not reaching eastern New Mexico until after peak

...Please see for graphic product...

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