Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 011947
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN ORE...

CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN SUFFICIENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY TO INTRODUCE A SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA OVER NERN
ORE /SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW/.  WHILE THERE MIGHT BE SOME WET
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN ACROSS THE AREA...THE OVERALL EXPECTED NUMBER
OF CG STRIKES IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY FUELS WARRANTS A CRITICAL
DESIGNATION.  THE ONLY OTHER NOTABLE CHANGE WAS TO EXPAND THE
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM AREA INTO CENTRAL ID...WHERE LOW PW VALUES
/AROUND 0.5 INCH/ WILL LIKELY LIMIT SOME STORMS FROM PRODUCING
WETTING RAINS.

..JIRAK.. 08/01/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0458 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE INFLUENCES THE WRN STATES.  AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW STATES ON SATURDAY AND PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NWRN GREAT BASIN NWD TO THE WA/ID/BC
BORDER.  WARM TO HOT TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NW
WILL AID IN SUPPORTING A DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR THE ERN HALVES
OF ORE/WA AND INTO NRN NV AND WRN ID.

...ERN ORE AND WA / WRN ID / NRN NV...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH --INITIALLY OVER THE ERN PACIFIC ON
FRIDAY-- IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WA/ORE ON SATURDAY AND GLANCE
AREAS FARTHER S OVER THE NWRN NV.  ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
FEATURE AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN THE REGION WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY PEAKING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LOWER- TO MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
RATES AND DEEP/WELL-MIXED AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS.  CONCERNS
REGARDING RELATIVELY HIGH PW /AROUND 1 INCH/ IN PARTS OF THE AREA
WILL PROMOTE A MIX OF SOME WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORM MODES.
CONVERSELY...FASTER STORM MOTIONS THAN THE DAY 1 /FRIDAY/ FORECAST
MAY RESULT IN SMALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
PORTIONS OF THIS GENERAL REGION.  A LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS --DUE TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY-- BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY LOW AT THIS TIME TO
NOT HIGHLIGHT AN AREA YET.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



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