Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 191645
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1045 AM CST SUN NOV 19 2017

                VALID NOVEMBER 19 THROUGH NOVEMBER 24

...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK OVER THE WGRFC AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A strong upper air disturbance zipped across Texas from northwest to
southeast the past 24 hours.  This disturbance pushed a strong cold
front rapidly southeastward across Texas. While this storm produced
precipitation over northern New Mexico, Colorado and the Texas
panhandle with its passage, this front produced little in the way of
rainfall over the remainder of the WGRFC area.  As the front crossed
extreme east Texas, Louisiana and deep south Texas late Saturday it
did produce some drizzle or light rain, but the amounts were very
light. Otherwise, a new ridge of high pressure has developed over the
Rocky Mountains and will produce dry weather along with colder
temperatures today and tonight.

The ridge of high pressure is forecast to retrograde and build over
the southwestern U.S. on Monday.  This will put the WGRFC area in a
northwesterly upper air flow through much of this week.  Within
this flow there will be a few upper air disturbances rippling
southeastward across Texas. The first upper air disturbance is
forecast to move across mainly south Texas by Monday morning which
may produce light rain over the Gulf coast into deep south Texas.
After a brief break, the second upper air disturbance is forecast to
ripple across Texas later Tuesday into Tuesday night.  Again, light
rain may occur over southeast Texas and deep south Texas into
southern Louisiana, but no significant rainfall is forecast over the
WGRFC area of responsibility.  The only significant rainfall is
forecast to fall over the Gulf of Mexico. A third upper air
disturbance may graze northeast Texas and northwestern Louisiana
Wednesday night and Thanksgiving morning, but no rainfall is
expected with its passage.  In general, cool, dry conditions are
expected for the last half of this week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for areas along and near the Texas Gulf coast into deep
south Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for areas near the Texas Gulf coast into deep south Texas
and southern Louisiana.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast for areas near the lower Texas Gulf coast into northeast
Mexico.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 46% with around 15% of the state
experiencing moderate drought.  In New Mexico, 21% of the state is
experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with 4% experiencing moderate
drought conditions (over the far western portions). With the dry
weather pattern the WGRFC area is in, the areas of drought will
likely increase this week.  Due to the drying soils and the lack of
forecast significant rainfall, runoff is not expected over the next 5
days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All rivers across the WGRFC area are below criteria levels and are
expected to remain below criteria levels for the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

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