Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 201618
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1118 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

                    VALID JULY 20 THROUGH JULY 25

...RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE MONSOONAL ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST
AND SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Little change will be occurring in the weather pattern over the WGRFC
area the next five days.  A minor change is expected in the weather
pattern next week, however.  A ridge of high pressure extends across
north Texas and Oklahoma this morning.  This ridge will remain strong
over these locations at least through Friday morning.  The result
will be hot, dry weather conditions over at least the northern half
of Texas. This ridge will temporarily shift eastward into northern
Arkansas this weekend which may bring an increased chance for
rainfall over east Texas and western Louisiana.  But other than that,
rainfall will be confined to two main areas the next five days.

Monsoonal activity in our western and southwestern forecast areas
will dominate the weather through the current forecast period.
Moisture has been abundant from northern Mexico and far southwest
Texas into New Mexico and southern Colorado the past several days.
However, drier air advanced westward over eastern and central New
Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday and this limited the thunderstorms
there. Meanwhile, western New Mexico and western Colorado will
continue to observe afternoon and evening development, with even
heavier rainfall over portions of Arizona.  The thunderstorms should
again become more numerous and widespread this weekend into early
next week when the ridge over Oklahoma shifts east, especially
near the mountains of New Mexico into southern Colorado.

Further south, rain chances will continue over the Rio Grande valley
between El Paso and the Big Bend area as diurnal thunderstorms
develop over northern Mexico and far southwest Texas.  In fact, the
ridge of high pressure will temporarily redevelop over south Texas on
Monday and Tuesday.  While that will thwart the rainfall chances over
central Texas, the rainfall may increase further over Mexico south
of El Paso and west of Candelaria.

Over southeast Texas, data indicates above normal amounts of moisture
in place, and already this morning widely scattered thunderstorms
have developed along and near the upper Texas Gulf coast.  This
moisture, along with the sea breeze front and daytime heating, will
enhance the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Some of the stronger storms could produce
locally heavy downpours. The rain may spread inland a ways before
daytime heating diminishes and the areal coverage of the showers and
storms decreases by late evening. This pattern will likely repeat
itself each one of the next five days, especially this weekend into
early next week.

Rainfall amounts the past 24 hours were heaviest over the west, with
the area near Van Horn TX receiving slightly under 2.00 inches and
the area around Las Cruces NM got over 1.00 inch.  Over the Texas
Gulf coast the areas near Houston and Brazoria received 1.00 to just
over 1.50 inches of rain.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP) amounts
of 0.25 inch are forecast for a small part of south central and all
of southwest New Mexico. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are
forecast over southeast Texas into southern Louisiana, as well as
over far west Texas and northern Mexico into the western half of New
Mexico and southwestern Colorado.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for western and northern New Mexico and parts of south
central New Mexico into southern Colorado.  MAP amounts of less than
0.25 of an inch are forecast over southeast Texas into Louisiana, as
well as over far west Texas and northern Mexico into much of New
Mexico and Colorado.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for a good part of New Mexico, southern Colorado and
far west Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are also forecast for
parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.  The heaviest rain,
with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over extreme northeast
and far southwest New Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an
inch are forecast over the southeastern quarter of Texas into
Louisiana, as well as over west Texas and northern Mexico into New
Mexico and Colorado.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for most of New Mexico, southern Colorado and far
west Texas.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are
forecast over extreme northern and central Mexico.  MAP amounts of
less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over northern and eastern
Texas into Louisiana, as well as over west Texas and northern Mexico
into New Mexico and Colorado.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 26%, and roughly 8% of Texas is
experiencing moderate (or worse) drought conditions. In New Mexico,
27% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with
about 7% of the state in the moderate drought category.  Outside of
the Texas Big Bend region, due to the dry soil moisture conditions
the rainfall forecast will not produce significant runoff the next
five days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Rainfall over the past few days on both sides of the Rio Grande near
Presidio caused out bank flows from Candelaria to Presidio with some
minor flooding. Minor flooding with some fluctuations can be expected
as the river slowly recedes to seasonal levels.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No widespread river flooding is expected over the WGRFC area during
the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

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