Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 021611
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1051 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

                VALID SEPTEMBER 2 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 7

...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM DOLLY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
ACROSS MEXICO EARLY TOMORROW...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A large area of showers and thunderstorms developed early this
morning across the Kansas/Oklahoma border. This activity is
continuing to move towards the southeast and should not impact any
areas across the WGRFC region this morning. Farther south, most of
the WGRFC region remains dry and mild this morning due to an area
of high pressure dominating most of the Southeast US.

The main weather story for the next few days will be the
future development and movement of newly formed Tropical Storm
Dolly. Dolly is located off the coast of Mexico and is
currently moving towards the northwest. If it continues at its
current speed and track, this system will likely make landfall
early tomorrow morning...a little after midnight. Some additional
intensification is possible, however due to its proximity to the
coast, significant intensification is not likely. Some scattered
showers can be seen on radar, moving over portions of Deep South
Texas this morning, and this activity is expected to become more
widespread throughout the day. Additional showers and thunderstorms
are also expected to develop over the southeast Texas coast and
northward through portions of Central and East Texas, as tropical
moisture increases across these areas this afternoon through
tonight.

Rainfall amounts of 0.50 inch or less are expected for portions of
the southeast Texas coast and Deep South Texas through early
tomorrow. As Dolly makes landfall across the eastern portions of
Mexico early tomorrow morning, this system is expected to turn more
westerly and continue moving over the mountainous terrain. Rainfall
amounts of 1.00 to 2.00 inches are possible tomorrow through
Thursday across Deep South Texas and the lower Rio Grande Valley.
Thereafter, significant rainfall will continue across Deep South
Texas and portions of northern Mexico. However, the largest rainfall
amounts are expected to remain across northern Mexico...mainly south
of our river basins across the lower Rio Grande. The WGRFC will
continue to monitor and update accordingly on the movement of
Tropical Storm Dolly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of the
southeast Texas coast, Deep South Texas, and northern Mexico.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00
inch are forecast for Deep South Texas and portions of the lower
Rio Grande Valley.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch
are forecast for portions of northern Mexico and the lower
Rio Grande Valley.

For Friday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of up to 1.00 inch are
forecast for portions of northern Mexico, West Texas, New Mexico
and southern Colorado.

Drought persists over Texas and New Mexico.  Statewide, New
Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less than 3% of
Texas remains in exceptional drought.  Severe drought conditions
are impacting 40% of New Mexico and 34% of Texas. The monsoonal
rains in New Mexico continue to ease the drought conditions in many
areas of the state. Some runoff can be expected along the immediate
Texas Gulf coast the next 5 days, but minor or no runoff is
anticipated elsewhere.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Rainfall during the past several days has increased soil moisture
and river conditions to near or above seasonal normals in portions
of southeastern Texas and along the Texas Gulf Coast. Elsewhere,
soil conditions remain dry, and river conditions are generally
below seasonal normal flows. No significant flooding is forecast to
occur through the forecast period.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


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