Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 041710
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1110 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013
VALID DECEMBER 4 THROUGH DECEMBER 9
...ANOTHER LARGE STORM WILL AFFECT THE WGRFC AREA THE NEXT FIVE
A mostly zonal upper air flow continues today which is keeping the
weather mild and dry across most of the WGRFC area. But big weather
changes are on the way. A big low pressure trough axis extends from
Nevada to western North Dakota, with a surface low being over
southwest Colorado. This low is bringing some higher elevation snow
to southern Colorado and extreme northern New Mexico at the moment,
and this precipitation should persist through tonight. Meanwhile a
strong cold front is pushing southward past the Red River toward
northern Texas this morning. As the upper level trough moves east
by Thursday the cold front will continue moving southeast across
Texas. Lower level moisture will be increasing from the south, but
it will take some time for the moisture to develop into some sort of
precipitation. So while the cold front pushes through today into
Thursday morning, very little precipitation will be associated with
the boundary. However, this will change during the day on Thursday
as widespread precipitation will develop during the afternoon and
continue through Thursday night.
The upper level trough will continue to move eastward into Friday
morning. This will set up a significant overrunning precipitation
event where moisture aloft is lifted up and over the cold front
allowing for precipitation to continue into Friday. Depending on the
specific temperature, there may be sleet and freezing rain over
northern and western Texas. Actual totals should remain light to
moderate even though widespread precipitation is expected. It
appears that the far northeast portion of Texas into Arkansas may
see heavier precipitation behind the frontal boundary where the best
lift is maximized. The trough of low pressure is forecast to exit
the region quickly later Friday and the precipitation will
A second trough of low pressure is forecast to move across Nevada on
Saturday. Out ahead of this storm, precipitation is again forecast
to develop Saturday in the cold air that will be in place over the
weekend, with the best chances over eastern Texas and Louisiana.
The precipitation is forecast to linger over east Texas and
Louisiana into Sunday morning as the upper low moves over Colorado.
Thereafter, as the storm passes to our north dry air is forecast to
move into the region. With the exception of northern New Mexico and
southern Colorado, the precipitation is expected to end later
Sunday, with mostly dry weather expected into Monday morning.
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch (snow water equivalent) are forecast for
the higher elevations in Colorado and northern New Mexico. MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast over the western two
thirds of New Mexico into Colorado, as well as over parts of west
For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast over the northern two thirds of Texas (except the
panhandle), central and southeast New Mexico and a good part of
Louisiana. The heaviest precipitation, with MAP amounts of 1.00
inch, are possible for far northeast Texas. MAP amounts of 0.50
inch are forecast for the northern third of Texas and northern
Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast over
the remainder of the WGRFC area of responsibility.
For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast over the eastern third of Texas and Louisiana.
The heaviest precipitation, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are
possible for extreme northern Louisiana. MAP amounts of 0.50 inch
are forecast for extreme east Texas into the northern third of
Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are forecast over
the eastern two thirds of Texas.
For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 of an inch or
more are forecast over the eastern quarter of Texas and Louisiana.
MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch (snow water equivalent) are also
forecast over southern Colorado into northern and western New
Mexico. The heaviest precipitation will be well east of the WGRFC
area. MAP amounts of 0.50 inch are forecast for extreme east Texas
into most of Louisiana. MAP amounts of less than 0.25 inch are
forecast over the remainder of the WGRFC area of responsibility
except for southwest Texas.
The drought situation in Texas continues to improve with only around
5% of the state in extreme drought in some isolated areas. New
Mexico is improving as well with only 3% of that state in extreme
drought, however all of New Mexico still remains in some level of
drought category. Some runoff is possible over primarily eastern
Texas the next 5 days, and this may result in river rises to near
bankfull or just above in area drainages.
Heavy rainfall last week, along with continued releases at Lake
Palestine, has the upper Neches River flowing within minor flood
conditions from Neches (NCST2) through Alto (ATOT2) to Diboll
(DIBT2). Downstream, along the mainstem and associated tributaries,
higher non-flood flows are receding and levels are slowly falling. A
storm system is forecast to move through the upper Neches on
Thursday and Friday. Rainfall from this system may produce some
minor runoff resulting in bankfull or slightly higher flows but
significant flooding is not anticipated over the next 5 days.
Toledo Bend has reduced releases to routine levels for the remainder
of the week. Deweyville (DWYT2) downstream will remain steady most
of the week, then begin falling over the weekend.
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Lake Livingston will continue reducing releases as inflows are
falling off. Current release is 9,000 cfs. Downstream of the lake
along the mainstem. River levels have fallen below bankfull now from
Liberty (LBYT2) through Moss Bluff (MBFT2) and are expected to
continue to fall.
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The storm system moving through the region may produce some runoff
Thursday and Friday but no significant runoff is forcast from this
system. All other rivers are at or below seasonal flows.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment: