Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 151552
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1050 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

               VALID SEPTEMBER 15 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 20

     ...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers will continue across most of the WGRFC area
through tomorrow. Rainfall amounts are very light, mainly
averaging less than 0.10 per hour. Therefore no significant issues
have been reported or expected. In general, the upper level pattern
will keep small chances of precipitation in the forecast through the
remainder of the week. However, no significant flooding is expected
at this time.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Odile made landfall near the Baja California
this morning. Over the next several days, remnants from this
system are expected to move over Arizona and New Mexico. Abundant
moisture can be seen on the latest water vapor imagery moving into
the area. This along with a very unstable atmosphere will allow
significant rainfall to impact the area towards the end of the week.
Flash flooding will continue to remain the greatest concern, however
this area and along with most areas across the state of Texas, have
already received significant amounts of rainfall over the past week.
Therefore, the possibility of some higher than normal flows and
minor flooding occurring during this time frame still exists.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of
Deep South Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for portions of the southeast Texas coast,
North Texas and southern New Mexico.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for portions of the southeast Texas and
southwestern New Mexico.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch to
0.50 inch are forecast for portions of southeast Texas and
southwestern New Mexico.

Drought persists, but is slowly improving over Texas and
New Mexico. Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional
drought while less than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought.
Severe drought conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico
and 36% of Texas. No significant runoff is expected across Texas for
the next 5 days.  Depending on locally heavy rainfall patterns, some
runoff is possible across New Mexico and Deep South Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Soil states for the most part remain elevated througout
most of the state of Texas.  Forecasted rainfall around
the coastal regions where soils are already primed could
potentially see some isolated flooding, but right now
no significant flooding is expected.  Drier soil states
remain over Central Texas and appear to stay that way
from the forecast.  Coastal flash flooding will also be
a concern for those areas that recieve isolated higher
rain values.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


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