Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 081533
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1032 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2015
VALID OCTOBER 8 THROUGH OCTOBER 13
...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE BIG
BEND THE NEXT 24-26 HOURS...
Heavy rainfall continues to impact portions of the Permian Basin
and Texas Panhandle this morning. Current rainfall amounts are
averaging 0.50 to 1.00 inch per hour. This trend should continue
through the early evening hours, as the slow moving upper
low approaches from the west. Over the last 24 hours, rainfall
totals of near 3.50 inches occurred over portions of New Mexico
and West Texas. This activity caused moderate flooding around the
Candelaria area early this morning. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to develop over the Big Bend this
evening, and continue through tomorrow. Additional rainfall amounts
of up to 2.00 inches are expected across this area. Higher than
normal flows and or minor flooding is possible the next 24-36 hours.
By tomorrow, the upper low is forecast to slowly move back towards
the south and west. This will shift the heaviest rainfall into
portions of northern Mexico by the weekend.
By early next week, an upper ridge will begin to develop once again
across most of the region. This will bring a return of mild and dry
weather to the WGRFC region early next week.
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 2.00 inches are forecast for the Permian Basin
and the Texas Big Bend.
For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley.
For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Sunday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
Drought conditions have returned to a good part of Texas. Only
the Gulf coast, far west Texas and the panhandle are free from
abnormally dry conditions. Topsoil moisture has decreased over
the past month, which means it will require more rainfall to fall
for runoff to occur. In Texas 65% of the state is abnormally dry,
with 18% in severe drought. In New Mexico, 43% of the state is
also abnormally dry. Some beneficial rainfall will occur from
central and southeast New Mexico into the southwest third of Texas
the next several days, and some runoff will likely occur. Elsewhere,
the rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy
enough to cause significant runoff.
...Rio Grande Basin...
Heavy rainfall occurred again over night in the Rio Grande Basin
causing Candelaria to rise into moderate flood category.
Heavy rainfall occurred near Carlsbad overnight. A rapid rise into
minor flood category is expected near Dark Canyon Draw (DACN5).
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Elsewhere, only light rainfall is expected over
northern and eastern Texas, keeping the rivers in these areas near
normal if not below normal levels.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment:
The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: