Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS North Central River Forecast Center

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Hydrometeorological Forecast Discussion
NWS North Central River Forecast Center Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1040 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

...Precipitation...

Showers and thunderstorms dropped rain across the far north and
southern third of the NCRFC region during the past 24 hours.
The heaviest rain was reported from Missouri... across central
Illinois and into northern Indiana where half to one inch reports
were scattered about.  Across northern North Dakota and northern
Minnesota a few hundredths were reported.  The Minnesota arrowhead
saw readings around a quarter inch.

Heavy rain is expected to move north today... into northern
Missouri... southern Iowa and northern Illinois.  Between a half
inch and inch and a quarter is forecast.  To the south, forecast
rain amounts reach a quarter inch.

The heaviest rain Saturday is expected across northern Minnesota
and Michigan where over an inch is forecast... but rain could fall
most any place across the region with most amounts forecast to
total a quarter inch or less.

Lighter rain is forecast for Sunday... but again like Saturday...
most of the region could see some measurable amounts... generally
less than a quarter inch.

...Hydrologic Conditions...

Around a dozen forecast points are currently at or above
flood stage across the central portion of the NCRFC area.

Over 30 forecast locations are considered active at this time,
yet below flood stage.  These locations are located in Iowa,
northern Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan,
and Missouri.

A large portion of the NCRFC area has very wet soil
conditions for this time of year.  The high soil moisture is
also demonstrated by the USGS Daily Streamflow Conditions map
which shows flows at river gages in these areas generally at the
76th percentile or higher.

The forecast precipitation for the next few days is expected
over some of these wet areas in Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, and
Missouri.  If the rainfall forecast verifies we may see some minor
flooding or worse if rainfall amounts are higher than expected.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows only isolated areas in the NCRFC
region with abnormally dry intensity.  These dry areas are the
far northern portion of the lower peninsula of Michigan, the far
southeastern corner of Wisconsin and south central Iowa.  The
majority of the NCRFC area is not impacted by any drought
signatures.

For additional and more in-depth information concerning river
forecasts, precipitation and all hydrometeorological information
in the NCRFC area of responsibility, please refer to the NCRFC
web page at:     http://www.weather.gov/ncrfc

Emergency Call Back List: SAS ... WES ... ALH ... RJW

If no response from this list, call the DOH or SCH.


$$

...rjw/alh...





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