Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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639
AGNT40 KWNM 010022
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
822 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

UPDATE...18Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTNDG NE TO SW
ALONG THE MAINE COAST...WITH POST TROPICAL BONNIE CENTERED ALONG
THE SE COAST NEAR CAPE FEAR. OTHERWISE THE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE
HI PRES RIDGE JUST E OF THE NT2 AREA. LATEST AVAIL ASCAT HI-RES
AND RAPIDSCAT PASSES FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOW 25 TO 30 KT WINDS IN
S TO SW FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN NT2 WTRS...WHICH MATCHES UP
CLOSELY WITH THE GFS 30M AND ECMWF GUESS FIELDS. LIGHTNING DENSITY
PRODUCT DATA AT 2310Z SHOWS A SMALL LINE OF SCATTERED TSTMS OVER
THE NRN NT2 WTRS S AND E OF 1000 FMS...AND ANOTHER LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTNDG MAINLY ACROSS THE INNER ZONES
OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN NT2 WTRS.

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS SE ACROSS THE
OFSHR WTRS THIS EVENING INTO WED NITE...STALL OVER THE NRN NT2
WTRS THU INTO SAT NITE...THEN LIFT NE AS A WARM FRONT SUN AND SUN
NITE INTO THE NT1 AREA. POST TROPICAL BONNIE WILL DRIFT NE ACROSS
THE NT2 WTRS TONITE THRU SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND
APPROACH THE MID ATLC COAST SUN NITE.

MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE
OFSHR WTRS DURING THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT GEM ABOUT SIX HOURS FASTER
WITH THE WARM FRONT ON SUN NITE...WHILE THE UKMET IS ABOUT SIX
HOURS FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT FOR SUN NITE. WILL BE USING THE
REPRESENTATIVE GFS 30M SOLN FOR THE WIND GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD.
AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST
TREND. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MDLS SHOWS SW WINDS OF 30 KT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NT2 WTRS FOR SUN NITE...SO DO NOT SEE ANY
GALES IN THE OFSHR WTRS DURING THE FCST PRD ATTM.

SEAS...WNA VERSION OF THE WAVEWATCH III MDL AND ECMWF WAM BOTH
INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. THESE MDLS ARE IN REASONABLY
GUD AGREEMNT DURING THE FCST PRD...ALTHO THERE ARE SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES AT VARIOUS TIMES. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE WNA
WW3 AND ECMWF WAM THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PRD TO SMOOTH OUT THE
DIFFERENCES.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE ASCAT PASS FROM 15Z INDICATES MAINLY LESS THAN 20 KT ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS...THE EXCEPTION IS 25-30 KT OCCURING VCNTY OF
THE GULF STREAM ACROSS N CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC WATERS. THE REMNANTS
OF BONNIE AS SHOWN BY SAT PIX AND CURRENT OBS APPEAR TO REMAIN OFF
THE N ERN CST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY RUNNING 3-7 FT ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS.

FOR THE MOST PART THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY PERIOD. THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE WILL
TRACK VERY SLOWLY NE ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
WED INTO FRI A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEW
ENGLAND WATERS AS WINDS TURN E-NE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
ERN SEABOARD ON DAY 5 AS WINDS SHIFT TO SW INADV OF BNDRY AND
INCREASE TO 20-30 KT. ATTM I AM NOT FORECASTING ANY GALES TO
OCCUR...ALTHOUGH A SMALL POSS REMAINS...ESPECIALLY S OF THE GULF
STREAM. WILL POP THE WIND GRDIS USING THE GFS THROUGHOUT...WITH
SMALL EDITS TO INCREASE WINDS AS NEEDED.

WAVES...BOTH THE WNA AND WAM INITIALIZED WELL AND ARE VERY SIMILAR
THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY PERIOD. WILL POP THE SEAS USING A 50/50 BLEND
OF THE TWO WAVE MODELS.

LATEST OBS AGREE WELL WITH CURRENT GRIDS. ATTM I DONT PLAN ON
MAKING ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS OR ASSOCIATED TEXT FCST.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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