Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 030221
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1021 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

HGH PRES E OF THE REGION STILL XTNDS A RIDGE INTO THE SRN WTRS
AND THE GLBL MDLS FIT WELL WITH THE OBS SYNOP PATTERN. A CLD FRNT
ACRS THE MID ATLC STATES IS STEADLY APPROACHING THE NRN WTRS WHILE
A TROF CONTINUES INTO THE SE STATES AND THE GLBL MDLS HV
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE FEATURES. WEAK RIDGING OVR THE SRN
WTRS HAS MAINTAINED MOSTLY SW WINDS ACRS THE REGION WITH HGR WINDS
TO 20 KT OVR THE CNTRL REGION WHICH IS INLINE WITH THE LAST ASCAT
AT 1536Z.

THE GLB MDLS ARE IN AGRMNT OVR THE SHORT TERM BUT THEY DIFFER
SLIGHTLY IN THE XTNDD PRD MAINLY BECAUSE THE SYMS ARE VERY WEAK
AND SO MDLS HAVE PROBLEMS IN THE DEPICTION OF CNTERS. OTHERWISE
ALL THE GLBL MDLS EXHIBIT SIMILAR SQUENCE AND PATH OF THE SYSMS
ACRS THE FCST WTRS. THE GLBL MDLS CONCENSUS ON WINDS IS MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS FROM THE WRN SECTR. THERE ARE NO MJR DISCRPNCS AND SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH GFS JUST LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH NO
WRNGS.

MOST OF THE ENRGY WILL KEEP PASSING N OF THE REGION WITH JUST
SPORADIC SMALL POCKETS OF ENERGY FROM THE S REACHING ONLY THE FAR
SRN WTRS. SYNOP FEATURES ALOFT SUGGEST MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IN THE
SHORT TERM THEN A TROF DIPS SLIGHTLY S TWD THE END OF THE XTNDD
PRD.

IN THE SHORT TERM THE HGH PRES TO THE E OF THE SRN WTRS WILL
REMAIN NRLY STNRY AS IT MAINTAINS A RIDGE ACRS THE SRN WTRS. THE
CLD FRNT WILL MV E OVR THE NRN WTRS THEN STALL ACRS THE CNTRL
WTRS. IN THE XTNDD PRD THE HGH PRES WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW ANOTHER
CLD FRNT TO APPROACH THE REGION WTRS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...A HI PRES RDG WILL PERSIST OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN NT2
WTRS THRU THE FCST PRD. A WEAK COLD FNT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NT1
AND NRN NT2 WTRS TONITE INTO WED...CONT SE INTO THE CNTRL NT2 WTRS
LATE WED INTO THU...THEN STALL AND DSIPT OVER THE SRN NT2 WTRS
LATE THU INTO FRI. ANOTHER RDG WILL BLD OVER THE OFSHR WTRS N OF
THE FNT THU...THEN SHIFT SE ACROSS THE OFSHR AREAS THU NITE THRU
SAT. ANOTHER COLD FNT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE AND APRCH THE NEW ENG
AND NEW JERSEY CSTS FRI NITE INTO SAT...THEN MOVE SE OVER THE NT1
AND NRN NT2 WTRS LATER SAT THRU SUN NITE.

MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT
THRU THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT THE GEM/UKMET ARE A LTL FASTER WITH THE
COLD FNT OVER THE FRI THRU SAT NITE TIMEFRAME. GFS 10M HAS STG
SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z ECMWF AND LATEST WPC MED RNG FCSTR
GUIDANCE...SO IT WILL BE USED FOR THE WIND GRIDS OVER THE FCST
PRD. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FCST TREND.

.SEAS...THE 12Z MULTIGRID WW3 MDL INITIALIZED WITHIN ABOUT A FOOT
OF THE OBSRVD SEA HTS. THE 12Z MWW3 AND ECMWF WAM ARE WITHIN A
FOOT OR TWO OF EACH OTHER THRU THE FCST PRD...SO WILL USE THE WNA
VERSION OF THE 12Z MWW3 MDL FOR THE WAVE HT GRIDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MUSONDA/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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