Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 301932
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
332 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

1425 UTC ASCAT WIND RETRIEVALS INDC GALE FRC WNDS IN THE W ATLC
FROM CAPE MAY TO THE VA CAPES...AND THE CRNT GOES VIS IMGRY AND
LTST NCEP SFC ANALYS INDC A FRNTL BNDRY APRCH THE COAST. THE WV
IMGRY AND THE GOES AIRMASS SOUNDER INDC A MID LVL TROF INLND OVR
NEW ENGLAND QUICKLY MOVG TWD THE COAST...AND CRNT SFC RPRTS INDC
WNDS UP TO 30 KT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. THE 12Z GFS WINDS ARE
INIT OK WHEN COMPARED WITH THE DATA...AND INDC THE WNDS WL CONT TO
INCRS TNGT AS THE FRNT MOVES THRU THE OFSHR WRS...MVG QUICKLY E
THRU THE RGN. THE 12Z ECMWF/NAM/UKMET/GEM ALL AGREE WITH THE GFS
ON THE TMG AND INTNSTY OF THE BNDRY...AND ALL INDC GL OR NEAR GL
FRC WINDS IN THE OFSHR WTRS EARLY TNGT...MAINLY IN AREAS WITH
LOWER STATIC STABILITY...TO THE S AND E OF THE CLDR SHELF WTRS.
THE PREV FCST CARRIED GALES FOR MANY NT2 ZONES...AND WITH CONFDC
RMNS HIGH DUE TO GUD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS AND GUD
MDL AGRMT ON THE TMG AND INTNSTY OF THE FRNT...WL CONT THE GL FOR
TNGT.

OTRW...THE 12Z MDLS INDC A PRGRSV PTTN WL PERSIST THRUT THE
PD...WITH SEVL STG SHRTWVS MOVG THRU THE WRN ATLC...AND SEVL STG
FRNTL BNDRYS AT THE SFC. THE 12Z MDLS AGREE VRY WELL IN THE SHORT
TERM ON THE TMG AND INTNSTY OF THE SYSTEMS...WITH THE NEXT SYS
MOVG THRU ON TUE NGT. THE GFS AND ECWMF AGREE VRY WELL ON THE TMG
AND TRACK OF THE FAST MOVG LOW THRU NRN NT2...AND THE GFS INDC GL
FRC WNDS FOR TUE NGT. THE ECWMF IS A LTL WKR...BUT ONLY
SLGTLY...AND IS NORMALLY A LTL CONSRVTV WITH THE SFC WNDS. ATTM
CONFDC WITH GALES IN THE N PTN OF THE OFSHR WTRS IS MDT TO HI...SO
WL CONT PREV WITH GALES IN NEXT FCST.

IN THE EXTENDED...A RDG MOVES THRU WED AND THU...BEFORE ANTHR PAIR
OF SHRTWVS MOV THRU THE OFSHR WTRS FRI AND SAT. THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH A SRLY TRACK FOR THE ASSOC SFC LOWS...AND IS S OF
THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM SOLNS. THE GFS IS ALSO A BIT STGR THAN THE
REST OF THE MDLS...AND LOOKS A LTL OVERDONE. THE 12Z ECWMF SEEMS A
BIT MORE RSNBL...AND INDC MRGNL GALES FOR FRI INTO SAT. ATTM
CONFDC IS LOW TO MDT WITH THE GALES...AS THE BULK OF THE GUID INDC
THAT THE SHRTWVS ARE FAIRLY STG...AND SHUD PROVIDE SFCNT FRCG TO
GENERATE AT LEAST A MRGNL GL FRC EVENT....SO WL ADD TO THE FCST IN
THE NEXT PKG. OTRW...PLANNING ON STAYING WTIH THE 12Z ECWMF FROM
ABT 00Z FRI TO THE END OF THE PD.

SEAS...BOTH THE 12Z MWW3 AND ECMWF AER INIT A CPL FT LOW OVR THE
GULFME IN THE STG SW FLOW...SO WL ADJUST HIGHER INITIALLY.
OTRW...THE MDLS ARE INIT WITHIN A FT OF THE CRNT DATA
ELSEWHERE...AND ARE IN RSNBL AGRMT THRU ABT 00Z FRI. THE MDLS THEN
DVRG A BIT...IN RESPINSE TO THE DIFFS IN THE ASSOC WX MDLS...WITH
THE MWW3 LOOKING OVERDONE WITH GFS WNDS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
ECMWF. AS AS RESULT...PLANNING ON USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MWW3
AND ECWMF WAM INTO 00Z FRI...THEN STAYING PRIMARILY WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF WAM THRU THE RMNDR OF THE PD...TO REFLECT PREFERRED WX MDL
TRENDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...GUID INDC A SLGT NEG SURGE
WITH STG NW OFSHR FLOW BEHIND SERIES OF STG FRNTL BNDRYS THRUT THE
PD. THIS SEEMS RSNBL WITH THE PRGRSV WX PTTN...NOT ALLOWING TIME FOR
LARGER SURGE VALUES TO DVLP.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE TUE NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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