Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 211910
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
310 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



THE LTST GOES WV IMGRY INDC AN UPR TROF OVR THE ERN CONUS. THE
CRNT VIS IMGRY INDC A SFC FRNTL BNDRY ACRS THE OFSHR WTRS...AND
THE LGTNG DATA INDC A FEW STRIKES ALNG THE BNDRY MAINLY OVR NT2.
THE PREV FCST INDC A FEW TSTMS OVR THE OFSHR WTRS...AND HAD
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SO WL CONT IN THE NEXT PKG.

ASCAT DATA FM 15Z INDC WINDS TO 30 KT AHD OF THE BNDRY OVR THE
OFSHR WTRS. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/GEM ARE ALL INIT OK WHEN COMPARED WITH
THE CRNT DATA...AND THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE A LTL WK WITH WNDS UP
TO 25 KT. THE MDLS ALL INDC AN UPR LOW WL CUT OFF AND MOV SLOWLY
OVR THE OFSHR WTRS WED INTO THU. THE 12Z GFS/ECWMF AGREE FAIRLY
WELL ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPR LOW...AND INDC A FAIRLY STG SYS
AT THE SFC. THE GFS HAS BEEN INDCG AN AREA OF GALES OVR THE GULFME
IN E TO NE FLOW AS THE LEAD LOW MOVES INTO THE GULFME. THE ENVRMT
IS A BIT STABLE ACRDG TO THE MDL STABILITY...BUT THE MDLS ALSO INDC
A STG LL JET WL SET UP OVR THE GLFME...WITH WINDS TO 60 KT WED
NGT. THIS SHUD BE ENUF TO MIX GALES DN TO THE SFC...SO WL CONT
WITH A PD OF GALES. ALSO...STG CAA SW OF THE SECOND LOW MOVG OFF
THE NJ COAST SHUD ALLOW FOR MXG GALES DN FOR BF PD OVR NW NT2.
THIS WAS ALSO IN PREV FCST...SO WL KEEP IN THE NEXT FCST PKG.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE MDLS ALL INDC A SECOND LOW WILL PASS TO THE
S AND E OF NT2. ATTM WPC MED RNG GUID INDC A FRNTL WAVE...ALTHO TRPCL
DVLPMT IS ALSO PSBL IN THE GLFMEX...AND PASS TO THE SE OF THE AREA
AS WELL. THE 12Z ECWMF/GFS AGREE SOMEWHAT ON THE TRACK...THO THERE
ARE SOME DIFFS WITH THE INTNSTY. FOR NOW PREFERRING TO STAY WITH
THE GFS...THO WL BACK OFF ON THE INTNSTY OF THE WNDS ALNG THE
FRNTL WAVE...AS CONFDC IS LOW WITH THE RNG OF THE FCST AND THE
LACK OF MDL SUPPORT FOR THE GFS. OTRW PLANNING ON STAYING WITH THE
12Z GFS FOR THE RMNDR OF THE FCST...USING THE 30M BL WNDS OVR THE
GLF STREAM IN THE GRIDS...THEN USING THE 10M GFS WNDS N AND W OF
THE N WALL WITH A FEW MODIFICATIONS...ESP WITH THE DVLPG LOW MOVG
OFF THE NJ COAST.

SEAS...THE 12Z NWW3 AND ECMWF WAM ARE INIT WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF
EACH OTHER...AND ARE INIT OK WHEN COMPARED WTIH CRNT DATA IN THE W
ATLC. THE MDLS AGREE FAIRLY WELL THRUT THE FCST PD...SO FAVOR A
3:1 BLEND OF THE NWW3:ECWMF WAM FOR THE GRIDS TO IRON OUT THE
MINOR DIFFS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...12Z MDL SHOWS ABT A ONE FT
SURGE IN THE GULFME WED NGT AS THE ERLY FLOW PILES WATERS INTO THE
CONFINED CAPE COD BAY. THIS LOOKS A TAD LOW...AND THE MDL SEEMS
RSNBL OTRW.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE WED NIGHT INTO THU.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE THU.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE WED NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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