Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGXX40 KNHC 200724
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
224 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence
through Tuesday, then low thereafter.

Water vapor imagery shows an unusually sharp mid-upper level
trough west of the area extending from Colorado across west Texas
and Mexico to south of the equator along 108W. The trough is
slowly moving eastward, with very active convection east of the
trough axis. Weak high pressure across the northeast Gulf and
low pressure across Texas and NE Mexico is supporting moderate to
fresh SE winds west of 92W, with seas building to 6-7 ft in the
NW Gulf. Winds will continue to increase later today across the
western Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens. An elongated low
pressure trough will emerge off the Texas coast today and move
eastward into the central Gulf through early Wednesday. Model
guidance shows broad low pressure development Wednesday in the
east-central Gulf, with the low tracking slowly eastward into
South Florida. Although model consensus is improving, confidence
in the extended portion of the forecast remains low.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

High pressure NE of the Caribbean is maintaining moderate trade
winds across the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras and along
the coast of Colombia between 73W and 77W where fresh to strong
nocturnal winds are occurring. Another weaker pulse is expected
tonight with seas topping out at 8-10 ft. Seas are generally 3-5
ft...except 5-8 ft in the aforementioned areas of stronger winds.
A broad low pressure trough in the Gulf of Mexico will weaken
the pressure gradient in the Caribbean Tuesday through Thursday,
and relatively tranquil marine conditions are expected.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Moderate to high
confidence.

A cold front trails southward from low pressure centered near
30N72W to the Bahamas near 25N76W. Scatterometer data shows
fresh to strong southerly winds and active convection within 150
nm east of the front. Moderate to fresh NW winds are observed
behind the front. The low will move east-southeast to near 28N68W
later today and weaken, while reinforcing cold air moving south
of 30N will strengthen the cold front across northeast waters
through Tuesday. High pressure across the SE CONUS will slowly
shift east-southeast Tuesday through Thursday.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.


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