Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 281823
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
123 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A 1023 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 25N94W CONTINUES TO CONTROL
THE WESTERN GULF AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBS SHOW
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 90W. SEAS ARE
IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE W OF 90W. E OF 90W...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
MODERATE IN STRENGTH WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. THESE STRONGER WINDS
GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF FLORIDA ARE MAINLY DUE TO A REINFORCING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER WHICH WAS ANALYZED AT 28/1200 UTC ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

THE HIGH IN THE W CENTRAL GULF WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND MERGE WITH A STRONGER HIGH PRES MOVING FROM THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY THU. GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN
FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF BY THU MORNING WITH 3-5 FT SEAS IN
THE SE GULF AND 1-3 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO SKIRT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THU NIGHT AND STALL ALONG 27N FRI
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO THE N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF SAT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7
FT BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

THEREAFTER...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO EMERGE
OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS SUN NIGHT LATE INTRODUCING
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE GULF BY EARLY MON WITH SEAS 3-5 FT BUILDING QUICKLY
TO 5-8 FT. AS THIS FORECAST PERIOD NEARS...POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ ARE
POSSIBLE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GRIDS WILL BE UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM-HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 17N75W TO THE COAST OF WESTERN PANAMA
NEAR 09.5N82W...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS W OF THE
SHEAR LINE WHERE SEAS ARE 6-9 FT. THIS SHEAR LINE WILL LINGER
THROUGH TONIGHT...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY THU AFTERNOON. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THU AFTER THE WIND FIELD WEAKENS WITH
SEAS 4-6 FT BY FRI W OF 80W ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN.

SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP DATA SHOWED FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NE-
E WINDS HUGGING THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE RECENT
ALTIMETER PASSES INDICATED SEAS 6-8 FT. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BRIEF LOCALIZED PERIODS OF MINIMAL GALE
FORCE WINDS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO UP TO 12-14 FT BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING
NEAR THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS.

FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA BY LATE
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BY FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-9 FT
JUST DOWNWIND OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY THU MORNING...AND TO 8
FT IN THE LEE OF EASTERN CUBA.

OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE-E WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE
TO FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 5-8 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU. THE
TAIL END OF A CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT MAY EXTEND INTO THE
NORTHERN WATERS THU NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY
BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN THE PRES
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO
MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND PERIODS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A PAIR OF FRONTS ARE CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE EASTERN FRONT IS STATIONARY AND EXTENDS FROM 25N65W
TO HAITI AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS A SHEAR LINE.
MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THAN ITS COUNTERPART...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY.

THE WESTERN FRONT IS A COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 31N66W TO
24N80W. RECENT ASCAT AND ASCAT-B PASSES INDICATED PREVIOUS GALE
FORCE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...LEAVING 20 TO 30 KT WINDS
OCCURRING N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO 71W. FRESH NW WINDS ARE
ALSO NOTED W OF 71W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GENERALLY N OF 26N.
AS THE WIND FIELD HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 12-15 FT RANGE HIGHEST NEAR 31N68W. 8
FT SEAS REACH AS FAR WEST AS 78W...PRIMARILY NE OF THE BAHAMAS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N60W TO 22N67W BY THU MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND SEAS 8-10 FT N OF 24N BETWEEN THE
BOUNDARY AND 72W.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION LATE THU
NIGHT...REACHING FROM 31N77W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA FRI
MORNING...FROM 31N70W TO FORT PIERCE FLORIDA FRI EVENING...AND
FROM 31N63W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
THEN BECOME A REMNANT SHEAR LINE AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK TO THE
S STRETCHING FROM 24N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SUN MORNING
AS NEW HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WILL ARRIVE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE ALONG
WITH BUILDING SEAS.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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