Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 261830
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS AND ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 AND TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

RETURN FLOW IS AT THE ADVISORY LEVEL OF 20-25 KT IN THE NW GULF
ACCORDING TO MULTIPLE PLATFORM REPORTS IN THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH
ARE ELEVATED. SEAS TO 9 FT WERE REPORTED AT BUOY 42019 AS RECENTLY
AS 1600Z. THESE CONDITIONS ARE STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY EITHER
THE 12Z GFS OR 00Z ECMWF OR THEIR CORRESPONDING WAVE MODELS
DESPITE BOTH MODELS TRENDING STRONGER HERE. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE
TO MATCH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF WINDS AND SEAS. THE TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING FROM THE NE GULF TO THE SW GULF AND
TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS DRIVING THESE WINDS...BUT
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AND WEAKEN BY TONIGHT. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE SAT...WITH BOTH MODELS NOW SHOWING
25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUN MORNING AND BRIEFLY INCREASING
WINDS TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ SUN AFTERNOON. BY
MON...THE GFS BECOMES THE STRONGER AND SLOWER SOLUTION COMPARED TO
THE ECMWF AND FITS BEST WITH THE TREND IN BOTH MODELS. THE GFS WAS
RELIED ON MORE HEAVILY MON-WED. THE NWPS NEEDS TO CATCH UP TO THIS
NEWLY FAVORED STRONGER SOLUTION...SO THE MWW3 WAS THROWN INTO THE
BLEND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE PREFERRED WIND
SOLUTION.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE MWW3 ALSO USED IN THE BLEND IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL DRIVE WINDS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ON WED. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE FARTHER N IN THE
LEE OF CUBA AND IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD N OF THE AREA. AS THE HIGH MOVES E...THE
AREA OF WINDS AT OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SHRINK. THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE AND
GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA WHERE IT SHOWS 30 KT EVERY MORNING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A 1230Z ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS AS HIGH AS 14.5 FT DOWNWIND OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS IS WITHIN A
FOOT OF THE NWPS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE SWELL WILL BRING
SEAS OVER 8 FT TO N WATERS TONIGHT AND SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE HERE. THE NWPS IS
STILL SPINNING UP THE SWELL OVER THE ATLC BASIN AND APPEARS LOW
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ON DAY 1-2. RELIED MORE ON THE MWW3 ON THOSE
DAYS FOR WAVES. THE MWW3 AND NWPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SEAS
HOVERING IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE INTO MON AND TUE AND SUBSIDING
FURTHER ON WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS AND MWW3 USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUN THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT LIES FROM 31N62W TO 27N74W THEN IS STATIONARY THROUGH
THE BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. THE 1332Z ASCAT-B
PASS SHOWED SW WINDS TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF
30N...STRONGER THAN WHAT WAS PREDICTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF OR 06Z
GFS. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE HERE IN THE SHORT RANGE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS PASSING OVER AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND IS
BEGINNING TO DIP SOUTHEASTWARD...CLIPPING THE NE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE WEAKENING. THE 12Z GFS
SEEMS REASONABLE HERE. NE SWELL OVER 8 FT CURRENTLY CONFINED TO
THE NE CORNER WILL SPREAD SW... REACHING PUERTO RICO SAT AND THE
SE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SUN NIGHT THROUGH
TUE. THE MWW3 AND NWPS BOTH LOOK REASONABLE HERE. THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT FRONT TO MOVE
OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN
THE GFS...CARRYING THE FRONT OFFSHORE MON AROUND SUNSET VERSUS
AROUND SUNRISE TUE. THE TREND IN BOTH MODELS IS FOR A STRONGER
AND SLOWER SOLUTION. SINCE THE GFS IS STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC...WILL ADJUST THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE 12Z GFS...BUT CONFIDENCE WANES FROM
LATE MON ONWARD. THE NWPS IS STILL SPINNING UP THE SWELL OVER THE
ATLC BASIN AND APPEARS LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS ON DAY 1-2. RELIED
MORE ON THE MWW3 ON THOSE DAYS FOR WAVES.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
 NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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