Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 030826
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
426 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

RIDGE EXTENDING FROM W ATLC ACROSS THE NE GULF CONTINUES TO
RETRACT EWD AS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE
NW WATERS. DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING ACROSS AN ELONGATED SWATH E OF
FRONT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NW CENTRAL WATERS AGAIN THIS
MORNING...BUT VSBYS MAINLY 5 NM AND HIGHER ATTM. FRONT IS ANALYZED
AT 06Z FROM JUST SE OF NEW ORLEANS SW TO 25N95W THEN SSW TO S OF
TUXPAN MEXICO. HOWEVER...OBS AND STLT IMAGERY SUGGEST TRUE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MIGHT BE A BIT FARTHER BACK TO THE NW ACROSS LOUISIANA
AND NW GULF WHERE DENSE CLOUD DECK RESIDES FROM BATON ROUGE TO
ALEXANDRIA INTO NW GULF. FRESH NLY WINDS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED
BEHIND THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY OFF THE TEXAS COAST. ASCAT DATA NOT
AVAILABLE TONIGHT AND THIS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT FORECAST IN THE
SHORT TERM. FRESH NLY FLOW HAS SPREAD DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST
BEHIND FRONT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT AND POSSIBLY APPROACHING 8 FT
OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT BUT STILL
PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. FRONT
EXPECTED TO REACH AL-FL BORDER TO JUST S OF VERACRUZ BY 00Z THIS
EVENING...SANIBEL ISLAND TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING...
THEN SE OF BASIN WED NIGHT. DEEP LAYERED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SSE
INTO MID ATLC STATE WED THROUGH FRI WILL SUPPORT A TERTIARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS THE NE GULF THU NIGHT
AND PRODUCE A SURGE OF 20+ KT NWLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NE
PORTIONS AT THAT TIME AND KEEP SEAS 5-6 FT THERE. AS THIS
DEVELOPS...A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE TO THE TEXAS COAST WED
NIGHT AND MEANDER IN THAT VICINITY THROUGH THU WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING ESE TO THE FL STRAITS. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA
ON THU NIGHT WITH A N-S RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 91W SETTING UP MODERATE-
FRESH SE RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE NW GULF W OF THE RIDGE ON FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. THE LOCALIZED LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
ENHANCEMENT OF FRESH NE-E WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL RESUME ON SAT AFTERNOON AS WINDS ACROSS S PORTIONS
VEER AROUND TO NE TO E.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

FRESH SE TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
OFFSHORE OF VENEZUELA TO CENTRAL PORTIONS...WHERE SEAS REMAIN
5-7 FT WITH MAX TO 8 FT POSSIBLE INVOF OF 15N73W. NOCTURNAL MAX TO
ONLY 20 KT FORECAST BY MODELS ATTM ALONG N COAST OF HONDURAS AND
BAY ISLANDS. THE PRES GRADIENT FROM ATLC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE E TO ESE FLOW DIMINISHING TO MOSTLY
MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 75W LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GULFMEX COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NW
PORTIONS WED NIGHT-EARLY THU...AND REACH FROM NEAR LA HABANA TO
TULUM MEXICO BY 12Z THU AND E CENTRAL CUBA TO NW GULF OF HONDURAS
BY 12Z FRI...REACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT MORNING TO NE
COASTAL NICARAGUA...WHERE NLY WINDS NEAR 20 KT WILL SPILL DOWN THE
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEAR 20 KT
WINDS SPREADING ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NW PORTIONS BEHIND
FRONT THU THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING 4-6 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1023 MB HIGH NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT S THROUGH THE BAHAMAS NEXT FEW
DAYS AHEAD OF GULFMEX COLD FRONT WHILE HIGH SHIFTS NE INTO CENTRAL
ATLC. SLY FLOW 15-20 KT ACROSS W PORTIONS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER TO S TO SW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
INCREASE TO 20-25 NW WATERS WED MORNING AHEAD OF FRONT. FROM TO
MOVE INTO NW WATERS MIDDAY WED WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG
BOUNDARY OFF CAPE HATTERAS WED AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST
LINES OF ACTIVE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT WED AND WED
NIGHT ACROSS NW AND N WATERS...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF SW WINDS
25-30 KT POSSIBLE AS INFLOW INTO THIS CNVTN. FRONT TO REACH FROM
31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU EVENING AS NWLY WINDS 20-25 KT
DEVELOP LATE IN DAY THU ACROSS NW WATERS...AND MAINLY 10-15 KT
ELSEWHERE BEHIND FRONT. FRONT TO CONTINUE SLOWLY ESE INTO
WEEKEND...REACHING BERMUDA TO NW HAITI BY SAT EVENING. STRONG NW
SURGE WELL BEHIND FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI TO DIMINISH BY LATE FRI
AND SAT FOR ONLY MODEST WAVE GROWTH BEHIND FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS II COLLABORATION CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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