Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 282106
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
206 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.


IN THE NEAR TERM...LOW 40N 137.5W IS FCST TO WEAKEN SIGNFCLY OVER
THE NEXT 6 HRS AS NEW LOW NR 38N 131W BCMS THE DOMINATE LOW. STLT
LOOP SHWS HINT OF SECOND LOW...BUT DFFCLT TO DTRMN HOW MUCH
DVLPMNT HAS OCCRDD SO FAR. LOW IS FCST TO MV NNE 20 KT AND SHLD BE
ENTERING THE OUTER OFFSHR WATERS W OF CAPE MENDOCINO BY 00Z THIS
EVENING. THE GFS LOOKS OVERDONE AS THE 0.5 DEG DVLPS STORM FRC
WNDS OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z...THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON TAKING LOW TO NR
190W OF CAPE LOOKOUT WHILE THE UKMET/GAM TAKE IT FARTHER E...UP TO
40 NM E OF CAPE LOOKOUT. SINCE THE NAM IS SUPPORTIVE OF THE
GFS/ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSMBL MEMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT THE
GEM/UKMET...WL STICK WITH GFS FCST FOR TRACK. THE ECMWF 10M WINDS
INCRS TO 45 KT...WITH HIGHEST WINDS ABOUT 130 NM W OF CAPE BLANCO.
THEN EXPECT LOW TO WEAK AS IT ACCLRTS NNE SAT WITH WINDS DMNSHNG
TO 25 KT BY LATE AFTN.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL N OF THE REGION SUN INTO MON...WITH
WRAM FRONT/TROF SKIRTING THE NRN WATERS. WL FLLW GFS/ECMWF INCRSNG
WINDS TO 25 KT. WEAK COLD FRONT WL FLLW MON NGT AND TUE...THEN
DSPTG TUE NGT INTO WED OVR THE CNTRL WATERS. WED AND WED
NIGHT...THE GFS DROPS A WEAK LOW SE INTO THE WASH WATERS. THIS LOW
HAS MINIMAL SPPRT FM THE ENSMBLS AND THE UKMET/ECMWF FAVOR A
WEAKER LOW TRACKING FTHR NE...WHILE THE GEM IS SUPPORTIVE OF THE
GFS. SO WL USE A 50/50 GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR GDNC FM WED ON. OFF THE
CNTLR AND SRN CA COAST...FL FLLW THE GFS/ECMWF IN DVLPNG NW WINDS
TO 25 KT BY SUN MRNG NR CAPE MENDOCINO THEN 20 TO 25 KT OFFSHORE
INTO TUE.

.SEAS...BOTH THE ENP WAVEWATCH III AND ECMWF WAM HAVE INITIALIZED
FAIRLY WELL OVR THE E PAC...EXCEPT SEAS JUST S OF THE GULF OF AK
ARE A FEW FT HIGHER THEN MODEL GUESS. THE WNA AND WAM DO HC
DFFRNCS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE AREA OF MAX SEAS TNGT WITH THE
ECMWF A LTTL FTHR S AND E OF THE WNA HIGHEST SEAS...SO WL USE A
50/50 WNA WAND WAM BLEND AND STAY WITH THAT THRU THE FCST.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE SAT.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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