Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 221403
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
703 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNFCNT CHNGS TO THE FCST ATTM AS THE
BENIGN PTRN WL RMN THE SAME THRU THE PERIOD. MINOR DIFFS EMERGE
TOWRDS THE END OF THE FCST RGRDNG SWELL NRGY FROM MARIE ENCROACHING
ON SRN WTRS...EVN SO...THERE IS NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE WV GDNC.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...THE 06Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES ON THE SW WA
COAST WITH ASCD TRAILING WK CDFNT IN THE SRN OREGON WTRS...WHILE
HIGH PRES HAS RECEDED W OF 140W. ASCAT-B PASS FM 0620Z SHOWS
HIGHEST WNDS NR NRN CA CST OF UP TO 23 KT AND AN AREA OF 20 KT N
WNDS W OF OREGON WTRS AS INDICATED BY RECENT RPTS FM BUOY 46002.
THE LOW WILL MOVE SE AND DISSIPATE OVR WA/OR EARLY TODAY WHILE THE
CDFNT MOVS INTO NRN CA WTRS AND DISSIPATES. A LOW PRES TROF WILL
PERSIST NEAR THE CA CST THRU THE FCST PRD...WHILE STRENGTHENING
FRI INTO MON. LONGER PERIOD S AND SW SWELL FROM T.S.LOWELL IS
EXPCTD TO ENTER THE SRN PZ6 ZONES TODAY INTO MON BUT LOWELL IS
EXPECTED TO CONT WKNG AND ITS SWELL BCMS REPLACED BY SWELL COMING
FM THE JUST NAMED T.C. MARIE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BAN CAT 2 HURN
PASSING S OF CA OFSHR WTRS TWD END OF PRD. SEE LATEST NHC ADISORY
ON MARIE. OTHW...A HI PRES RDG WILL BLD E INTO THE WA/ORE/NOCAL
OFSHR WTRS TODAY INTO SUN THEN WKN EARLY NEXT WK AS A COLD FRONT
ZPCHS FM THE NW. MAX WINDS OF 30 KT ARE EXPCTD OVER THE ERN PART
OF THE SRN ORE/NOCAL OFSHR WTRS AND CSTL WTRS LATER SAT INTO SUN
NIGHT.

MODELS...THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD AGREEMNT
THRU THE FCST PRD. THE MDLS KEEP THE WINDS SUB-GALE OVER ALL OF
THE ZONES DURING THE FCST PRD. WILL USE THE REPRESENTATIVE 00Z
GFS 30M WNDS TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS THRU THE FCST PRD. AM NOT
PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.

SEAS...INITIALIZED 8 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE OFSHR ZONES IN 06Z RP1
SEA STATE ANALYSIS...WHICH IS VRY CLOSE TO THE 00Z MULTIGRID WW3
AND 00Z ECMWF WAM GUIDANCE. THE SEA STATE MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD
AGREEMNT WITH EACH OTHER THRU THE FCST PRD...BUT STARTING EARLY
TUE BLENDED IN THE 00Z ECMWF WAM AT 75 PCT BASED ON ITS PREFERENCE
ON HNDLG OF HURCN MARIE...SHOWING A MORE COMPACT SYSTEM. THIS
RESULTS IN MDL DIFFERENCES IN SWELL GENERATED.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER LEE/BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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