Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 311823
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VALID 12Z MON AUG 04 2014 - 12Z FRI AUG 08 2014

THE 31/00Z GEFS/ECENS MEANS FOLLOWED A TREND PRODUCED ON THE
30/12Z CYCLE...TRENDING TO A SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION/MIGRATION
OF THE 500 MILLIBAR CUTOFF LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE (DAYS
6). AND FOR THE MOST PART...A BLEND OF THE ECENS/GEFS MEANS AND
THE 31/00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS COULD BE UTILIZED WITHOUT REGRET FOR
MUCH OF ALASKA.

WITH THE 31/00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF DROPPING ITS VERY STRONG
SOLUTION IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AT THE SURFACE---THE 31/00Z
UKMET---IS THE LAST `HOLD OUT` WITH THIS DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE.

BEYOND DAY 6...THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS---TO A DEGREE---HOLD
FIRM WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE ARCTIC CIRCLE...BUT HAVE
THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTER (ON THE WEST END) AND
STRUCTURE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE 9ON ITS EAST END) AS ENERGY
FROM THE EAST ASIAN COAST AND DEPARTING CUTOFF LOW INTERACTS WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.

TO HANDLE THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM DIFFERENCES...THOUGHT A
50/30/20 BLEND OF THE ECENS/NAEFS AND GEFS MEANS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION...AND
GIVE KEY FEATURES IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND NORTHWEST BERING
SEA...A CHANCE TO SETTLE DOWN THE VOLATILE PATTERN IN THE
SUBTROPICAL SOUTHWEST AND MID-LATITUDE WESTERN PACIFIC.

VOJTESAK




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