Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 051947
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
246 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 12Z SAT FEB 13 2016

THE LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES STILL OFFER BELOW NORMAL FORECAST
SPREAD AND BETTER THAN NORMAL CONTINUITY DAYS 4-8 WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. THIS PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED
BY AN AMPLIFIED MEAN RIDGE EXTENDING NWWD FROM SERN AK TO THE
INTERIOR THAT TENDS TO SHIELD AN ACTIVE FLOW OF DEEPENING LOWS
FROM THE NERN PACIFIC UP THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS/SW AK TO THE SRN
BERING SEA AND ALSO WORKING INTO THE GULF OF AK WITH TIME.
WRAPPING PCPN SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS THESE AREAS AND ALSO INTO
COASTAL AREAS/TERRAIN OF SRN/SERN AK WITH PERIODICALLY ENHANCED
LEAD LOW LEVEL INFLOW.

THE WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED
FROM THE 00 UTC ECMWF DAYS 4/TUE...THEN GRADUALLY BLENDED THE
ECMWF INCREASINGLY WITH A COMPATABLE MIX OF THE 06 UTC GEFS MEAN
AND 00 UTC NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS DAYS 5-8 CONSISTENT WITH
SLOWLY DECREASING FLOW PREDICTABILITY OVER TIME AS PER WFO
COORDINATION.

SCHICHTEL

$$




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