Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 291723
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
123 PM EDT WED MAR 29 2017

VALID 12Z SUN APR 02 2017 - 12Z THU APR 06 2017

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
WESTERN AK WILL SHEAR OUT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP CYCLONE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES/THE YUKON IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BRIDGE INTO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR OF THE STATE.  OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BROADER
SYNOPTIC SETUP AND THE DETAILS TODAY.  SMALLER DIFFERENCES ARISE
IN REGARDS TO A FUJIWARA INTERACTION OF TWO CYCLONES.  TO HELP
DEAL WITH LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES, USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 06Z
AND 12Z GFS, 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z ECMWF, AND 00Z UKMET EARLY, AND
TRANSITIONED TOWARDS ~50% CONTRIBUTION OF THE 00Z NAEFS MEAN/00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.  THIS IDEA MAINTAINED
GOOD CONTINUITY.

WEATHER-WISE, EXPECT MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL,
SOUTHEAST, AND THE AK PANHANDLE THOUGH AMOUNTS EACH DAY DO NOT
APPEAR HEAVY OR EXTREME.  WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIANS, PAR FOR THE COURSE FOR THE
COLD SEASON. THE CYCLONE PROGRESSION INTO AND NEAR AK SHOULD LEAD
TO CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDNESS ACROSS SOUTHERN AK, WITH SEASONABLY
COLD READINGS REMAINING ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AT THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONE.  CENTRAL AK IS EXPECTED TO PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT FROM NORTHWEST CANADA.

ROTH
$$





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