Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000
ACUS48 KWNS 270834
SWOD48
SPC AC 270833

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OH VALLEY/NERN U.S. DURING THE DAY 4 PERIOD...TRAILING SWWD
INTO TX BY 31/00Z.  SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS FRONTAL ZONE WITH ONLY THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO BE SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A MODEST CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY...WITH PERHAPS 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE...WILL EXTEND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZATION.
WHILE GUSTY WINDS OR ISOLATED SEVERE MAY BE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
IT APPEARS INSTABILITY MAY BE INADEQUATE FOR 15 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS
FROM A DAY4 PERSPECTIVE.

BEYOND THE DAY4 PERIOD...THE THREAT FOR STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SHIFT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS IF SUFFICIENT SWLY
FLOW TRANSLATES INTO THIS REGION LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 05/27/2015


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.