Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 280900
SWOD48
SPC AC 280858

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND TO MONDAY
REMAINS LOW.  MODELS /00Z ECMWF AND GFS/ SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THIS
FORECAST COULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION ON TUESDAY...AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AHEAD OF A WESTERN STATES TROUGH.

A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES DURING DAY
4/SAT AND DAY 5/SUN WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SUGGESTING A
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IN THE
GREAT BASIN BY 03/12Z.  MODELS THEN DIVERGE BEYOND DAY 5 IN THE
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OVERALL
AMPLIFICATION/EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN STATES TROUGH.

...DAY 7/TUE...
THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
LATER IN THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD /TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING/
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO KS.  HOWEVER...TIMING/
TRACKING DIFFERENCES IN THE PRIMARY BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING
FROM THE AMPLIFIED WESTERN STATES LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND AFFECTING
THE PLAINS STATES DAY 7 PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF A
SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT AREA.

..PETERS.. 09/28/2016



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