Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 300850
SWOD48
SPC AC 300849

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS SEASONALLY
LOW THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY DAY5 AS
ECMWF ALLOWS A STRONG DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO PROGRESS INTO THE
ERN GULF BASIN WHEREAS THE GFS ONLY DEPICTS SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS.
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE DIGGING INTO THE
BASE OF PRONOUNCED ERN U.S. TROUGH THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS.  IF THE
ECMWF SCENARIO EVOLVES...SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FL
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY.  OTHERWISE...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW MAY ADVANCE INTO THE SWRN U.S. BY DAY8.  THE
DEGREE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE...THUS PREDICTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH THIS FEATURE.

..DARROW.. 04/30/2016



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