Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 051628
SWODY1
SPC AC 051627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST MON DEC 05 2016

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
LA...MS...AL...GA...AND FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
WATER VAPOR LOOP CONFIRMS A COMPACT UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TX.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY...PROMOTING LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.  MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND
SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BY EVENING...
SUGGESTING SOME RISK OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MAIN CHANGES FOR THIS OUTLOOK UPDATE ARE TO TRIM THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR INLAND THE WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE...AND TO EXTEND THE RISK AREAS EASTWARD INTO MORE OF
GA/FL DUE TO AN OVERNIGHT RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS TRACKING ALONG
THE FRONT.

..HART/ROGERS.. 12/05/2016

$$



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