Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 271240
SWODY1
SPC AC 271239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS VA/NC AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SE AZ...

...SUMMARY...
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA
AREA...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WITH A STOUT MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...A BELT OF CONFLUENT MODERATE MID-LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWESTERLIES WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY. A SERIES OF MINOR SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT POCKETS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHERE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
DECAYING OVER SOUTHERN KS. POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION APPEARS
COMPARATIVELY GREATER WITHIN THIS REGION...BUT THE ABSENCE OF
APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND THE PRESENCE OF MODIFIED
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE NORTH OF THE KS OUTFLOW SUGGESTS SUPERCELL
COVERAGE MAY REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED.

...VA/NC VICINITY...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AMID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD AGAIN
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS.
MODEST MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES PERSISTING NORTH OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC
COAST ANTICYCLONE COULD SUPPORT LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS.
HOWEVER...STORM MERGERS AND THE HIGH PW AIR MASS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR GENERATING A WET MICROBURST WIND THREAT.

...SOUTHEAST AZ...
15-25 KT 500-MB NORTHEASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NM/SOUTHEAST AZ. THIS SHOULD AID IN
CONVECTION PROPAGATING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A RISK FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.

...NORTHERN ME...
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY
EVENING. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS...BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK DURING PEAK
HEATING...WITH INSTABILITY DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. CAMS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE SUBSTANTIALLY
PRIOR TO REACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

..GRAMS/BROYLES.. 07/27/2016

$$


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