Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 240112
SWODY1
SPC AC 240111

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...ERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH CNTRL OK AND NWRN TO NCNTRL TX...

THIS EVENING A DRYLINE EXTENDS ACROSS WRN TX NEAR SANDERSON NWD TO
EAST OF AMARILLO TO NWRN KS WHERE IT INTERSECTS A COLD FRONT. A
RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. A CLUSTER OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS PERSIST FROM
NWRN TX INTO WRN OK...POSING A NEAR TERM THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY RESIDES WITHIN AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK AND
NCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX. WITH WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS ONLY IN MID
50S...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT STABILIZATION WITH
ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WHICH WILL INCREASE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. THIS SUGGESTS SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX.

WV IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVING INTO NM AND THIS FEATURE WILL EMERGE OVER THE SRN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
MERGER...PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL/NRN OK SUPPORTED BY DEEPER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.

...CNTRL KS THROUGH SRN NEB...

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSIST FROM NWRN KS THROUGH SERN
NEB...BUT ACTIVITY IS BEING UNDERCUT BY CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW AND THE
SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A NEAR TERM THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 02-03Z...BUT
OVERALL THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
STORMS OVER SCNTRL KS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS THROUGH 03Z. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES...AT LEAST
A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE AT LEAST A
MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ACROSS CNTRL KS.

..DIAL.. 04/24/2014



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