Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 251700
SPC AC 251659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Southeast and Gulf Coast Monday. A few thunderstorms may develop
near the Bay Area later in the day, as well. Organized severe
weather is not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
With most of the country under the influence of a broad mid-level
trough, relatively stable low/mid-level conditions are anticipated
in many locations. Nonetheless, as a sheared impulse traverses the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Monday, another round of convection is
likely to be ongoing to its south. These storms should be focused
near/along a stalled front stretching from southeastern Louisiana to
southern Alabama/Georgia. With the passage of the mid/upper system,
a weak surface wave is forecast to advance towards the Southeast US
coast through the day, with the attendant cold front slowly
accelerating into the northern Gulf. Along/ahead of the front and
weak surface low, scattered convection is likely, and an isolated
storm or two may briefly become strong early in the period, owing to
residual surface-based buoyancy and vigorous westerly mid-level
flow. However, the strongest flow will becoming increasingly
displaced from any substantive buoyancy, likely keeping the threat
of stronger, organized thunderstorms low.

Elsewhere, a notable northerly mid/upper jet maximum will drive
south along the Pacific Northwest coast Monday, favoring the
organization of a closed low that should pass over the Bay Area
during the afternoon and evening. Cold mid-level temperatures and
steepening lapse rates may support a few updrafts deep enough for
lightning production.

..Picca.. 02/25/2018

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