Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 300540
SWODY2
SPC AC 300539

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A
SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
WEST TO NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AVERAGING 30-40 KTS WILL
RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PRECIPITABLE WATER 2-2.25 INCHES/
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS NEAR THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE. WITH POOR LAPSE
RATES...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES
WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

..BUNTING.. 07/30/2015



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