Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 040528
SWODY2
SPC AC 040527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2016

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL...ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN US AND OVER THE EASTERN US BENEATH
AN UPPER LOW.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES...

UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ACROSS THE ERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS A STRONG UPPER LOW EASES SLOWLY
INTO SRN CALIFORNIA.  LATEST DATA DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY MEANINGFUL
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TOP THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES THURSDAY
BUT MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED.
ADDITIONALLY...CORRIDOR OF .75-.90 INCH PW PLUME SHOULD EXTEND
ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROBUST
UPDRAFTS BY PEAK HEATING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN WA/NRN ID
AND WRN MT SUGGEST 1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
REGION WHERE DEEP SLY FLOW AND BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35KT
SHOULD AID CONVECTION.  FOR THESE REASONS HAVE ADDED A CAT1 SEVERE
THREAT TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

...ELSEWHERE...

SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS ACROSS CA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.  COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BENEATH AN UPPER LOW SHOULD
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA.

SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC/CAROLINA REGION.
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES BENEATH AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THIS REGION
WILL ALSO FAVOR A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT COULD GENERATE SMALL
HAIL.  HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION FOR A MEANINGFUL SEVERE THREAT.

..DARROW.. 05/04/2016

$$


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