Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 211648
SWODY2
SPC AC 211646

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
MAINLY SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE...WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE ROCKIES AS WELL AS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN UPPER RIDGE FROM SK SWD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NERN STATES
ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CANADA. BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL AFFECT THE PACIFIC NW LATE
IN THE PERIOD AND INTO TUESDAY WITH RAIN AND WIND.

BENEATH THE RIDGE ITSELF WILL BE AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED WLY
FLOW ALOFT AND SOME MOISTENING.

TO THE E...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT GA INTO THE
CAROLINAS AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH TO THE
N. THIS WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE AREA WITH A FEW STRONG DAYTIME
STORMS.

...CO FRONT RANGE INTO FAR SERN WY...
WHILE A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE
PLAINS EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...SLY FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE BY
AFTERNOON. A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST DUE TO
COOLING PROFILES ALOFT AND MARGINAL WIND PROFILES FOR LONG-LIVED
CELLULAR STORM MODE. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS BEFORE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES MARKEDLY ACROSS THE PLAINS.

...SERN SC INTO SERN GA...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND
FROM SRN SD INTO SRN GA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
FLOW ALOFT. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK SUGGESTING
MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE BUT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FOCUSED AND PERHAPS
QUITE VIGOROUS AS IT COINCIDES WITH PEAK HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS MAY BE PRODUCED WITH THESE
STORMS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 09/21/2014



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