Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS02 KWNS 300535
SWODY2
SPC AC 300534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and hail will
be possible across parts of the Northeast, central Plains and Ozarks
on Wednesday.

...Northeast...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley on Wednesday as a cold front advances eastward into the
lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, a
narrow corridor of low-level moisture should be in place with
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F. Weak instability should
be in place along the moisture corridor by midday. This combined
with large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough
should result in thunderstorm development along the front during the
afternoon. In spite of the weak instability, GFS forecast soundings
at 21Z on Wednesday in central New York and central Pennsylvania
show 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 kt range which could be enough for
a marginal wind-damage threat especially if a line segment can
develop.

...Central Plains/Western Missouri...
Northwest mid-level flow is forecast to be in place across the
north-central states on Wednesday. Low-level moisture advection
should take place across the central Plains where a pocket of 60+
surface dewpoints should be in place by afternoon. Model forecasts
suggest that thunderstorms will initiate during the afternoon in
north-central Kansas on the western edge of this pocket of low-level
moisture. This convection is forecast to develop eastward across
eastern Kansas into western Missouri during the late afternoon and
early evening. Forecast soundings along this corridor for
00Z/Thursday show unidirectional wind profiles with 0-6 km shear in
the 40 to 50 kt range. This may be enough for a marginal wind-damage
threat. Cold temperatures aloft may also support hail with the
stronger updrafts.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2017

$$


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