Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 010730
SWODY3
SPC AC 010728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. OTHER STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND SOUTHEAST STATES.

...SYNOPSIS...

A SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES
AREA WHILE A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES REGION. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN
GULF AND SERN STATES. AT THE SFC A LEE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE
NRN THROUGH CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SEWD
THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE NRN ROCKIES. A WARM FRONT WILL
PERSIST OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME
OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
NEWD ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A
THREAT FOR DOWNBURST WINDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING.


...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH...PRIMARILY IN POST
FRONTAL REGION. THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME STRONGLY
UNSTABLE...BUT A WARM EML WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE MOIST WARM SECTOR
RESULTING IN A CAP. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE A STORM OR TWO COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...THE STRONGER FORCING WILL REMAIN
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WOULD POSE A
THREAT FOR DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL.

...GREAT LAKES REGION...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIST WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND NORTH OF PRIMARY WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 09/01/2015



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