Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 050714
SWODY3
SPC AC 050713

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2016

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE TX DRY LINE INTO NRN
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY.  ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG A DRY LINE ACROSS WEST TEXAS.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
TOWARD THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.  IT APPEARS A BELT OF STRONG 500MB
FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 60KT+...WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS SERN NM INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE
ASCENT ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL BECOME MORE
FOCUSED BY PEAK HEATING AS SFC CYCLONE DEVELOPS IN FAVORABLE LEE
POSITION OVER ECNTRL CO.  PRIMARY NEGATIVE FOR POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WILL BE THE LACK OF QUALITY BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE.  SFC DEW POINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ACROSS THE PLAINS
DUE TO RECENT COLD FRONTAL PENETRATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LATEST THINKING IS 40S SFC DEW POINTS MAY BE COMMON ALONG A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DRY LINE...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  DELAYED
MOISTURE RETURN MAY ACTUALLY RESULT IN MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION
ACROSS UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CO...JUST NORTH OF AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW.
 FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND EXIT REGION OF UPPER
JET SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME LONGEVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.  IF SFC DEW POINTS CAN CLIMB TO NEAR 50F ACROSS NERN
CO SHEAR PROFILES/INSTABILITY WOULD SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN PLAINS
DRY LINE WILL BE QUITE HIGH BASED IN NATURE...THOUGH STRONGLY
SHEARED.  HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE HIGH-BASED
STORMS.

..DARROW.. 05/05/2016

$$



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