Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 300706
SWODY3
SPC AC 300705

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NCNTRL FL
PENINSULA AND FAR SE GA...

...SUMMARY...
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...FL PENINSULA/FAR SE GA...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING A TROPICAL
STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THE TROPICAL
STORM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND INLAND ACROSS THE NCNTRL FL PENINSULA AROUND MIDDAY ON THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE NHC FORECAST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR GAINESVILLE FL AT
18Z ON THURSDAY SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 75 F...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 2.50 INCHES...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE
SFC TO 850 MB AND 0-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS AND AT LEAST A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM...WILL KEEP THE SEVERE
THREAT LEVEL AT MARGINAL MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE TROPICAL STORM. A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF COAST STATES AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THURSDAYS SCENARIO.

..BROYLES.. 08/30/2016

$$



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