Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 310553
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310553
NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-310730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SD...CENTRAL NEB...NORTHERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426...

VALID 310553Z - 310730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND THREAT WITH A QLCS SHOULD GENERALLY
EVOLVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEB. PORTIONS OF WW
426 SHOULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT...WITH A
NEW WW ISSUANCE NOT ANTICIPATED.

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY SLOW-MOVING ELEVATED
CLUSTERS NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER...WITH WW ISSUANCE UNLIKELY. WW AREA
IN BETWEEN THESE REGIONS MAY HAVE A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...FORWARD PROPAGATION OF A SOUTH-CENTRAL SD/NORTH-CENTRAL
NEB QLCS IS NEAR 35 KTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. 04Z HRRR-PARALLEL RUN
SUGGESTS THIS QLCS WILL CONTINUE ON A SIMILAR TRACK. THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE LACK OF SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTWARD DEVELOPMENT AND
CONVECTION LIKELY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME
CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS REMAIN PROBABLE UNTIL THE QLCS SHIFTS EAST OF THIS PLUME IN
SOUTHEAST SD/NORTHEAST NEB.

FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER AREA...A SLOW-MOVING CLUSTER
OF ELEVATED STORMS IS INCREASING WITH A RECENT REPORT OF GOLF-BALL
SIZE HAIL. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SPEED SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER PER MODIFIED 00Z LBF RAOB WILL FAVOR
LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN UPDRAFTS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
CLUSTER. OVERALL THREAT IS LIKELY GREATEST IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...WITH THE PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE LIKELY YIELDING MORE
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH TIME.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 07/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ICT...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...
GLD...

LAT...LON   43590062 43599950 43419847 43109806 42599807 42149831
            41709911 40629924 40039858 39459834 39069888 38890024
            39120059 39620070 40870065 41650094 42240147 42940074
            43590062




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