Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 220006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220005
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-220130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0097
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana/southern Mississippi and
vicinity

Concerning...Tornado Watch 15...

Valid 220005Z - 220130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 15 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe/tornado threat is expected to steadily increase
over the next few hours in/near Tornado Watch 15.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows scattered strong/severe storms
increasing from the northwest Louisiana vicinity southeast across
the New Orleans area, near a warm front arcing
northwest-to-southeast across this region.  A moist/buoyant boundary
layer (dewpoints into the low 70s) continues to spread slowly
northward in conjunction with the advancing warm front, which should
remain a focus for continued convective development/increase over
the next several hours.

As the left exit region of a 100 kt mid-level jet streak spreads
eastward across the area and low-level winds likewise increase,
shear will favor intense/rotating updrafts.  This in conjunction
with backed surface flow near/just north of the warm front will
enhance the overall environment with respect to severe risk --
including the possibility for strong/long-lived tornadoes.  We will
continue to monitor northward progression of the warm front and
associated convective evolution, with an eye toward
future/additional tornado watch issuance north and east of WW 15
(into central Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and
possibly parts of the Florida Panhandle).

..Goss.. 01/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31958937 31208801 29718820 29498974 30049197 30849270
            32169205 32259082 31958937




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