Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
ACUS11 KWNS 151432
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151431
ILZ000-MOZ000-151630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1718
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0931 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CENTRAL MO AND WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151431Z - 151630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS
DEVELOPING AND TRACKING ESEWD ACROSS NRN TO EAST-CENTRAL MO AND FAR
WRN IL THIS MORNING.  THIS THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
/3-4 HOURS/ AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES EWD FROM THIS
REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED IN FAR NWRN MO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH NRN
MO TO CENTRAL IL.  MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
SSEWD INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER MO VALLEYS...AND TOWARD NRN OK
TODAY.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS WRN INTO CENTRAL MO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG A
30-35 KT WLY LLJ EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL MO THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALBEIT RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MO...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THIS REGION AS AN ERN IA SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES.

THE ONGOING STRONG STORM IN NWRN MO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
AROUND 1 INCH PER TRENDS IN WDSS-II MESH PRODUCT...IS LIKELY BEING
FED BY THE WLY LLJ WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION THROUGH THIS MORNING.  THE JUXTAPOSITION OF
MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW PER THE WLY LLJ...ERN EXTENT OF A STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME...AND GLANCING EFFECT OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NWRN TO EAST-CENTRAL MO.  ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR WILL BE
STRONGER AND FORCING FOR ASCENT A LITTLE GREATER INTO WRN IL PER
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD
LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH EWD EXTENT INTO IL.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 09/15/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...EAX...

LAT...LON   39699435 39799223 39919105 39399039 38919027 38579100
            38539165 38709283 38989383 39259434 39699435



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.