Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 021931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021931
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-022130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN NEB...FAR SERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021931Z - 022130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
A LARGE HAIL REPORT/STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THIS THREAT...WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
DEPICT STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST A FIELD OF GROWING
CU/TCU OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB INTO FAR SERN WY. SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADDITION
TO WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SUBTLE IMPULSE ALOFT...HAVE BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE THIS CONVECTION. RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
35 KTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR UPDRAFT SUSTENANCE AND
ORGANIZATION...FAVORING SOME LARGE HAIL GROWTH IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. FURTHERMORE...AMPLE HEATING HAS YIELDED SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 90S AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A
STRONG-WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT...AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...COVERAGE OF
STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO PRECLUDE
WATCH ISSUANCE.

..PICCA/HART.. 08/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   42380437 42410424 41990020 41869825 41599776 40709782
            40739879 40740052 41080267 41190445 41920486 42380437



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