


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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572 ACUS11 KWNS 160119 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160119 MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-160245- Mesoscale Discussion 1682 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0819 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Areas affected...parts of southwestern Minnesota...southeastern South Dakota...northwestern Iowa...southern and eastern Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514... Valid 160119Z - 160245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514 continues. SUMMARY...An organized convective system probably will maintain intensity with a continuing risk for strong to severe gusts as it propagates southeastward through 9-11 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Convection has grown upscale into an organizing convective system, including the evolution of a couple of notable embedded meso-beta scale cyclonic circulations. One associated southeastward cold pool surge is ongoing across/southeast of the Yankton SD vicinity, at a forward propagation around 30 kt. To the southwest, another southeastward surge across and southeast of Broken Bow NE is a bit slower, around 20 kt, but the nose of a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet (in excess of 30 around 850 mb) may begin interacting with this portion of the QLCS by 03-04Z. Inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by sizable CAPE appears likely to be maintained through this time frame, and perhaps a bit beyond. ..Kerr.. 07/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 41259929 42069883 42109859 42729694 43849689 43699553 42899504 41149703 40319902 40800064 41259929