Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 010420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010419
SDZ000-NDZ000-010545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 380...

VALID 010419Z - 010545Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 380 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH LINGERING STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 06-07Z.  A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOW SOUTH OF THE SASKATCHEWAN BORDER...DIGGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.  AS INHIBITION INCREASES FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS NEAR THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH SURFACE
COOLING...REMAINING STORMS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING FOR THE PAST HOUR OR
SO.  THIS PROBABLY HAS BEEN SLOWED SOMEWHAT BY THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION... PARTICULARLY ALONG A CORRIDOR WEST OF PIERRE SD INTO
AREAS WEST OF MOBRIDGE.  THIS MAY PROVIDE CONTINUING SUPPORT FOR
STORMS SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
06-07Z...BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY TO
INCREASE SUBSTANTIVELY.

..KERR.. 07/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   46100163 45850081 45140027 44520035 44020112 43780141
            43700198 44390210 44920223 45550253 46100163



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