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ACUS11 KWNS 221211
SPC MCD 221211

Mesoscale Discussion 0086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central and northern Texas and into
parts of southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221211Z - 221445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in convection -- including potential for
marginally severe hail as well as local ice accumulation due to
freezing rain -- is ongoing across portions of central and northern
Texas.  WW is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an increase in elevated showers
and thunderstorms ongoing across portions of Texas -- particularly
over the Hill Country and surrounding areas.  The storms are
occurring as large-scale ascent increases across the southern Plains
in association with a short-wave trough moving northeastward across
eastern New Mexico, and within a zone of ample (at least 1000 J/kg)
CAPE, elevated atop a layer of near -- or below -- freezing

Given the aforementioned characteristics of the thermodynamic
profile, areas of ice accumulation will be possible with briefly
heavy downpours.  Additionally, the degree of CAPE combined with
background cloud-layer shear around 50 kt suggests that a few
organized/possibly rotating storms will be possible, with local risk
for marginally severe hail with the strongest cells.

With time, expect this area of showers and storms to spread
northeastward across north Texas and into Oklahoma, where the lack
of better CAPE should mitigate any hail risk but where freezing rain
-- and thus some ice accumulation -- will still be a concern.

..Goss/Guyer.. 02/22/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


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