Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
000
ACUS11 KWNS 272232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272231
MNZ000-NDZ000-280000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NORTH DAKOTA/WRN MINNESOTA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...

VALID 272231Z - 280000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEARS
LIKELY TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS
EITHER SIDE OF THE NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER AREA...NEAR A
FRONTAL ZONE REINFORCED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM EARLY DAY
CONVECTION.  AT LEAST A COUPLE OF STORMS APPEARED TO INITIATE NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY
EDGED WESTWARD...AND STORMS PROPAGATED EASTWARD...INTO THE COOLER
AIR...ASSOCIATED MESOCYCLONES WEAKENED/DISSIPATED.

A SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING NORTHEAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS...LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE MAINTENANCE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UNCLEAR.

FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THE ISOLATED CELL NEAR/SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH OF FERGUS FALLS MN APPEARS TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT MOST
CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT /STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR AND
ACCESS TO POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR/.   ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION IN THE PEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
INSTABILITY /CAPE LOCALLY ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J PER KG/ MAY STILL
BE POSSIBLE EAST OF JAMESTOWN ND. OTHERWISE...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN REMAINING LINGERING STRONGER
STORMS.

..KERR.. 08/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON   48909670 48059593 47059533 46139535 46059672 46409780
            46809871 47739821 48639807 48999793 48909670




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.