Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT20 KNHC 181130

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.


...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

Pulsing nocturnal NE-to-E winds to gale-force are expected again
during the early morning hours today from 11N to 13N between 73W
and 76W off the coast of Colombia. Expect sea heights to range
from 10 to 15 feet. Wind speeds will be drop below gale-force by
afternoon, then resume during the early morning hours Tuesday.
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from 06N10W to 04N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N22W to 04N43W. Precipitation: scattered
moderate north of the ITCZ from 05N to 11N between 34W and 42W.



A surface trough extends across the basin from southern Lousiana
to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. Scattered moderate showers
are NW of a line from 30N86W to 24N98W. The trough will lift
northwestward today into Texas. A ridge will dominate the Gulf
waters through Tue. A weak cold front will reach the coast of
Texas Tue night, extend from SE Louisiana to near Brownsville TX
Wed morning, then dissipate by Wed night.


Please refer to the Special Features section for details about
the gale warning near the coast of Colombia during the next two
days. Broad mid-level anticyclonic wind flow and relatively dry
air in subsidence span the entire Caribbean Sea. Except for a
few random trade wind showers, minimal convective activity is
occurring across the basin.


A broad mid to upper-level high covering the Caribbean and very
dry air aloft will support stable conditions across the island


A deep layer trough in the central Atlantic is supporting a cold
front that extends from 31N43W to 22N64W. The front dissipates
west of 22N64W to the SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate showers are
along the frontal boundary north of 23N. Strong high pressure
building west of the front will prevail over the area through
mid-week. The Azores high extends a surface ridge and fair
weather across the eastern Atlantic, with the ridge axis from
32N28W to 24N44W.

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