Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 101123 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 623 AM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Arctic high pressure will maintain some of the coldest temperatures of the season through tonight. A warming trend will begin late Sunday into Monday. A cold front will move into the area Monday night,remaining in the area through Wednesday before a second stronger cold front will bring below normal temperatures back to the area Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 300 AM Saturday...Temperatures at or below freezing early this morning throughout the CWA but have been a bit slower to fall than anticipated due to continued mixing. If winds do drop off we can expect nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions to bring widespread mid and lower 20s by daybreak. If not, then temperatures will bottom out a couple of degrees higher. Cold any way you look at it. The cold and dry Arctic high centered over the Mississippi River Valley early this morning will transition to eastern CONUS today and tonight, with the high axis aligned along the east coast by daybreak on Sunday. Below normal temperatures and cloud-less skies will continue for another day, with highs in the mid to upper 40s and lows in the mid to upper 20s, with lower 30s closer to the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Ridge axis overhead will shift offshore on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will move SE and offshore overnight Monday. Pre-frontal WAA will bring a warming trend, with temperatures rising back above normal by Sunday night, with highs on Monday will be well up in the 60s. Precip chances increase as the front approaches, with the chance for showers from Sunday night through Monday. Keeping QPF on the modest side considering shallow layer of available moisture. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM Saturday...A cold front will not get too much of a push as flow remains rather zonal aloft with a very broad trough across the upper mid west. The surface boundary may make it south of area but winds aloft will remain W-SW producing some overrunning with likelihood of clouds and possible pcp around through Tues into Wed. By Wed it looks like a minor perturbation in the mid levels may ride across helping to develop weak low pressure along lingering boundary and keeping unsettled weather over the area. This low should move off to the east Wed night into early Thurs as a stronger cold front moves through. Temperatures will have less diurnal swings with plenty of moisture and clouds around. Expect above normal temps overnight and near normal temps during the day for Tues/Wed, closer to 60 for max temps during the day. Cooler temps should follow as high pressure builds in rather briefly behind cold front for Thurs into Fri. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 12Z...High confidence VFR will continue over the next 24 hours. NW-NE winds 5-10 kt expected this morning, highest at the coastal terminals. Speeds decrease to 6 kt or less by this afternoon as surface high pressure builds in. This evening winds become light and variable or light NE as the center of high pressure settles in overhead. As the high slips off to the east later in the evening, winds will become E in the boundary layer opening the door for low level moisture to begin to increase. Sct 1.8-4k range SC possible at the coastal terminals, most likely KMYR, towars sunrise. Extended Outlook...MVFR/-RA Sun evening with IFR Mon morning. VFR developing Mon. Periods of MVFR/-RA Mon night through Wednesday with IFR most likrly during the morning hours.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Cold and dry Arctic high pressure will build east across the waters today and tonight. N winds of 10 to 15 kts today will veer to the NE tonight. Seas will stay in the 2 to 4 kt range through the period. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday...High pressure will move east of the waters as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will move offshore by around daybreak on Tuesday and will be accompanied by showers, mainly from Sunday night through Monday. We may see seas build as high as 4 to 6 ft Sunday night in the tight southerly gradient preceding FROPA, so it is possible that a Small Craft Advisory will be issued for then. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday...Winds will veer around to the north by Tues as cold front drops south, diminishing down to 10 to 15 mph with seas subsiding down to 2 to 4 ft. This front may stall across or just south of the waters on Tues and may linger over the waters producing more variable winds and seas through mid week. For now, will maintain light northerly flow becoming more southerly on Wed as low pressure develops along lingering boundary and then a stronger cold front follows behind pushing through the waters by early Thurs. Winds will pickup out of the north behind the front with seas increasing up to 4 to 5 ft, but ahead of it expect seas on a downward trend through Tues into Wed basically remaining between 2 and 4 ft most waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRH NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...RGZ/DRH AVIATION...MRR

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