Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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600 FXUS62 KILM 301431 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1031 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will waver in the vicinity through Sunday before dissipating. This will bring seasonable heat and increasing thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Warmer and slightly less unsettled conditions are forecast for Independence Day and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Thursday...Forecast challenge remains pops for the afternoon hours. The latest high resolution guidance continues to be less than enthused about coverage and in some cases even in development (NAM). This is probably a function of the NVA in the wake of the morning convection that moved offshore. Still feel we will have decent coverage as there is adequate time and insolation for the atmosphere to recover. I did trim back pops for the first few hours. Temperature trends look good. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...At the upper levels the pattern becomes more zonal as an H5 longwave trough lifts off to the northeast. At the surface the pattern will begin in its presently generally amorphous character on Friday, with an area of troughiness situated inland between broad areas of high pressure inland and offshore. Thereafter, guidance drops a cold front slowly southeast towards the eastern Carolinas, although it stalls and remains to our north through the remainder of the period. Flow at the surface will be southwesterly through the period, keeping the lowest levels moist and very warm, while aloft a deep westerly flow will develop, bringing in dryer air at the mid and upper levels. Moist low levels plus a marginally to moderately unstable airmass will keep in the chance for mainly diurnal convection in through the short term. Temperatures will gradually warm to just above climo by Saturday, with highs in the lower 90s and heat index values around 100 on that day. Expect lows in the mid 70s for both nights. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Concern for the extended continues to revolve around a wavering front which will drape back and forth across North Carolina through the middle of next week. On Sunday, this front may make its closest approach and stall immediately across the ILM CWA. This will support widespread showers and thunderstorms as the combination of surface convergence...very unstable air...and weak mid-level impulses all combine to produce convection locally. Periods of heavy rain are possible Sunday. This front will then dissipate as a secondary boundary approaches from the NW. This leaves Mon/Tue as likely less unsettled than Sunday, but scattered diurnal activity is still expected. As of now, the 4th of July looks unsettled but not a washout, with temps slightly above climo. That weather will persist into Tuesday before the eastern CONUS trough amplifies and drags the second cold front into the area. This front is more likely to make a clean passage as NW flow becomes perpendicular to the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the FROPA, but little temperature difference is forecast behind it. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS of 12Z...Convection offshore will scrape Bald Head Island and perhaps Carolina Beach but should not make it to ILM. There will be move convection developing by early afternoon along the resultant and a couple of hours later along the piedmont trough. Coverage is a bit of an uncertainty, will go with VCTS for now. Light mainly southerly flow today, with light winds tonight with convective debris. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR. Possible brief MVFR/IFR from scattered convection each day. Possible brief MVFR from fog or low ceilings each morning. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM MARINE /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1030 AM Thursday...Almost a repeat of Wednesday as winds acquired a northerly component in the wake of convection this morning. Recovery is already underway with 41013 and JMPN7 now reporting southeast winds. This pattern will continue through the late morning and afternoon hours. Seas will be 1-3 feet. SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday...Winds will be southwesterly through the short term as high pressure maintains its hold over the western Atlantic. Expect winds maintain in the 10 to 15kt range, with seas of around 3 ft for both Friday and Saturday LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 AM Thursday...The coastal waters will be entrenched between an offshore ridge of high pressure and a slowly wavering cold front to the NW. This leaves persistent SW winds through the period, with speeds of 10-15 kts with only slight increase each night. A low amplitude 7-8 sec SE wave will exist in the wave spectrum both days, but this will be mostly masked by a 4 ft 5 sec SW wind wave which will produce 3-4 ft seas Sunday and Monday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDW NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...DL

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