Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000 FXUS62 KILM 261127 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 727 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will build over the area through Thursday. A cold front will cross the area early Friday. Above normal temperatures are expected this weekend into early next week before a second cold front moves across the area on Monday. Little to no rainfall is forecast for at least the next seven days. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 610 AM Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: The southern extension of a Canadian high pressure system will slowly transit across the eastern Carolinas today, with consequent dry weather and slightly below- normal temperatures continuing through this afternoon. For tonight, temperatures will raise back near normal as low-level flow becomes easterly with the ridge axis passing offshore. A consensus of guidance gives us highs today in the lower to mid 70s. We will see about a 10 degree spread with low temperatures tonight due to onshore flow, with minimums ranging from around 50 inland to around 60 at the beaches. We may see an increase in cirrus coverage overnight as the next system approaches the eastern Carolinas. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...A weak low pressure system will move NE into New England on Thursday and then into the Gulf of Maine Friday, dragging a cold front across the area on Thursday night. Unlike earlier fronts, this one will have a modest amount of moisture accompanying it, so increased cloud cover is likely. As moisture is shallow and best upper support will be passing well to the north do not expect this to be a rain-maker, although the odd pop-up shower cannot be ruled out. CAA following FROPA will also be minimal, so do not expect a significant cool-down with this system. In fact, daytime temperatures will increase from Thursday into Friday, with only a minor cool-down for Friday night into the mid 50s. Dry airmass following FROPA means a dry Friday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...Surface high over the region at the start of the period will gradually sink south and become elongated during the weekend. Weak ridging aloft Sat into Sun is briefly suppressed south by passage of shortwave to the north. How much suppression the ridge experiences remains uncertain but it looks like the effects will be minimal. The shortwave will help push a dry front across the region Sun night into Mon with Canadian High building in Mon and Tue. Ahead of the front southerly flow will help keep temps above to well above climo. Following the exit of the shortwave, the 5h ridge will expand back north with northwest flow aloft on Mon becoming westerly on Tue. Cold air is lacking behind the front and only a slight drop in temperatures is expected following fropa. Downslope component to winds aloft will contribute to temperatures above climo Mon and Tue. Lack of deep moisture combined with very weak weak convergence along the front will keep precip chances near zero. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 12Z...High pressure will continue over the TAF sites through this period. Therefore VFR is expected at all sites with possible mvfr developing between 09 and 12 utc for BR. Winds will be light from the north-northeast to northeast early this morning and veering to the east by the afternoon. Winds will fall below 3 knots after sunset. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR expected. An isolated shower is possible along with brief TEMPO MVFR Thursday afternoon and evening but not likely.
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&& .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 610 AM Wednesday...No changes to the forecast with the latest update. Previous discussion follows: High pressure will move across the waters today, with benign conditions continuing over the area through the near term. Expect NE winds in the 10 to 15 kt range today becoming easterly at 10 kts tonight as the ridge axis moves offshore. Seas will range right around 2 ft through the period. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...A cold front approaching from the west will move offshore on Thursday night. A few showers may accompany frontal passage, especially Thursday afternoon and evening, but conditions are expected to remain well below advisory criteria as the front will be weak with minimal gradient packing. Expect winds of 10 to 15 kts through the period with seas of right around 2 ft. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 AM Wednesday...High pressure over the waters Sat morning will shift south during the day. Light northeast winds will become southwest in the afternoon, but gradient will remain weak and speeds will stay under 10 kt into Sun. High sinks farther south Sun with front approaching from the northwest late in the period. Southwest flow around 10 kt continues into late Sun night before the front crosses the waters dry and weak offshore flow develops. Seas run 2 to 3 ft through the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...REK SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...III AVIATION...HAWKINS MARINE...REK/TRA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.