Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 170623 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 123 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm front will continue to push northward this evening. A cold front will move through on Tuesday. An upper level disturbance will keep precipitation chances in the forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The initial wave of isentropically induced showers is lifting northeast across our area attm. We should then see a brief lull in the more widespread precipitation for a couple of hours before the next wave of precipitation moves in. This second wave will be associated with the combination of some mid level energy and a strengthening 40-50 knot low level jet. Expect precipitation to be fairly widespread so will keep the categorical pops going through the night. We are seeing several lightning strikes upstream across western Kentucky and Illinois, now pushing into western Indiana. The instability should weaken some through the night but given the fairly dynamic system and the fact that some weak elevated instabilities are progged to overspread our area through the early morning hours, think a few thunderstorms will be possible later tonight across our area. Temperatures are currently running from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s south but these should gradually rise overnight in the strengthening southerly low level flow. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will move through on Tuesday. There is some weak instability and therefore have some thunder mention in the forecast. Although there will be a lull in the precipitation Tuesday afternoon and early evening a decent upper level disturbance will bring scattered rain showers to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The greatest coverage of the shower activity will be across northeastern portions of the region. Some lingering drizzle will be possible on Wednesday before precipitation tapers off. Even as precipitation tapers off on Wednesday lots of low level moisture remains and keep clouds around through the day on Wednesday. High pressure and dry conditions are expected Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High amplitude upper air pattern with energetic systems will prevail through the period. Upper low in the Plains will open up as it pivots north. This will result in low pressure tracking up the Ohio Valley and weakening as it heads into the lower Great Lakes early in the period. Showers will accompany this system Thursday night into Friday. After this moves by, southerly flow will remain with much above normal temperatures continuing into the weekend. A large upper low will track into the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday and then turn northeast on Monday bringing more showers to the region. Cannot rule out a bit of thunder as well. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mid level shortwave and associated sfc low over the mid MS valley to eject northeast across the Great Lakes today. This will allow southward trailing cold front to sweep east across all TAF sites from midday through early this afternoon. Expect CIGS and VSBYS to drop through MVFR into IFR category by morning. Wave of rain overspreading the TAF sites associated with embedded s/w and a strengthening 45-50 knot low level jet. Some marginal elevated instability will work into the Ohio valley toward sunrise, so a few thunderstorms are not out of the question. Due to limited coverage have limited mention to VCTS at KCVG/KLUK. Due to low level jet, low level wind shear will also be possible overnight but this appears marginal at best so have left out the mention of LLWS. Rain showers will continue into the morning until a cold front pushes east across the area. Expect MVFR CIGS to persist through the forecast period. In the wake of the front, winds will veer to the west and gust up to 22 kts this afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities through Wednesday. MVFR/ IFR ceilings are again possible Thursday afternoon through Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Novak NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...Novak LONG TERM... AVIATION...AR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.