Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KILN 281043
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
643 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
High pressure off the East Coast will result in warm and humid
conditions with a chance of showers and thunderstorms through
Sunday. A weak cold front will move through Sunday night. High
pressure will build in Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Persistent showers that have been moving across central Kentucky
should eventually expand into eastern Indiana and western Ohio
this morning. Sheared short wave over the lower Mississippi Valley
will move north northeast across the region later in the day. This
will help trigger scattered convection during the afternoon.
Forecast highs stayed close to a MOS blend.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Convection may linger into the evening in eastern counties before
diminishing. Tail end of a trough swinging across the Great Lakes
later Sunday may brush by the forecast area. This will also push a
weak cold front across the region Sunday night. This may result
some showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the night.
High pressure will build in Monday with a drier airmass. Did not
stray too far from MOS for temperatures except for going a bit
cooler on Monday.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the region at the beginning of the period will
slowly move east but continue to influence the area possibly into
Wednesday. Long wave trough will move out of the Plains on
Thursday and head into the region on Friday. This will cause a
cold front to cross the area late Thursday into Thursday night.
There will be enough of a return of moisture ahead of the
boundary that showers and thunderstorms will occur along and ahead
of the front.
Temperatures will remain a bit above normal until Friday when
readings will fall back closer to climatology.
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --River valley fog will improve quickly this morning. Dry
conditions will start out the TAF period however isolated shower
activity southwest of the TAF sites will expand in coverage and
move north. Expect scattered showers across the TAF sites at times
today. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm however due to the
isolated nature decided to leave out of the TAFs at this time.
Rain shower activity will taper off this evening. Additional river
valley fog will be possible at KLUK tonight.
OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on
Sunday. There will also be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
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