Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 182008 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 308 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will approach the region from the southwest tonight. It will then lift northeast across the area on Monday. Much of the region will dry out for Monday night into Tuesday as frontal boundaries remain to the north and west. Unseasonably warm air will bring the potential for record temperatures on Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Cirrus will stream in from the west/southwest this evening well ahead of a developing warm front. Lows will be early on given thinest clouds and lighter winds. Lows will range form the mid 30s to the lower 40s early on, then they will rise into the upper 40s to the mid 50s late as clouds thicken and winds increase from the south. For the overnight period, two areas of developing energy will be the focus for an increasing threat for precipitation. One piece will be located near our southeast late, while a strong, moist low level jet develops/noses into the remainder of the area. Have ramped up PoPs between the 06Z and 12Z time frame, with the lowest PoPs south and highest northwest. Can not rule out a rumble of thunder north given strong ascent and some indication of elevated instability. Some high resolution convection allowing models are hinting at a split in the energy, so it is possible that PoPs may have to be lowered in between if this trend continues.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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On Monday, the warm front is forecast to lift north across the region, being located across the southern Great Lakes by evening. Again, showers (isolated thunder) will be most widespread along and north of I-70 during the morning, with decreasing chances as one moves south. By afternoon, much of the precipitation will have lifted into northern Ohio. Total rainfall amounts will range from a half inch to and inch along and north of I-70, with a tenth to one half inch elsewhere. This should not pose a need for an areal flood watch. Under an increasing southerly flow, locally gusty, temperatures will warm into the lower 60s north to near 70 along and south of the Ohio River. These values are well above normal by about 25 degrees. However, it appears records at the three major airports should be safe. For Monday night, much of the region will be in the wake of the warm front and warm sectored. Some spotty shower activity in a moist southwest plume aloft will prompt to keep at least a chance of showers going for the far northwest. Overnight lows will also be unseasonably warm, ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. These values will be some 30 to 35 degrees above normal. Given predicted warmth on Tuesday, it looks like record low maximums for February 20th (Tuesday) are going to be broken.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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An unseasonably warm forecast with a very moist airmass and periods of rain will remain the general consensus over the Ohio Valley through the period. Record warm temperatures are expected through Tuesday night. While daytime records are forecast to be broken, they`re still within 3-5 degrees of the records and not a sure bet. Overnight lows are forecast 10 deg warmer Mon night/Tues morning and 3-9 deg warmer Tues night, and much more likely to be set. A front will be found northwest of the area through early Wednesday and then work through the region with an early high in the southeast and falling temperatures for the rest of the area during the day. This will bring the coldest temperatures of the period Wed night through Thurs night - still 10 deg warmer than normal on overnight lows and 5 deg warmer on highs. Southwest flow then sets back up for the latter part of the forecast and brings a return of unseasonably mild temperatures and increased threats of rain. Regarding rainfall, a prolonged period of steady and sometimes moderate rain will occur with the frontal passage Tues night through Wed night. Have indicated moderate rainfall where pops were likely and higher, and also put in a chance of thunder for the same area through Tuesday night. Not to say that thunder won`t be possible on Wednesday, but the zonal upper flow and lack of defined shortwaves in the flow this far out had me leave this out beyond then. Likewise with the second threat for rain on Friday and beyond, models disagreed significantly enough with placement, timing, and upper level features to have me top out the max chance of rain at the chance category, though it will likely occur at times.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will continue to push off to the east this afternoon and evening. Lingering stratocumulus will erode/dissipate and will be replaced by high level cirrus clouds. For the overnight period, clouds will thicken and lower as strong, moist ascent develops ahead of an approaching warm front to our southwest. In a developing strong low level jet, non-convective LLWS threat will develop after 06Z. Models continue to indicate that showers will develop rapidly across the area between 09Z and 12Z. At the same time, ceilings will lower into the MVFR category. Can not rule out a rumble of thunder in some elevated instability, but this is too small to mention in the terminals at this time. On Monday, as low pressure moves northeast toward the western Great Lakes, the warm front will lift northeast as well. On going showers (embedded thunder) will pivot south to north through the day. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visbilities are expected early on near the KDAY/KCMH/KLCK terminals with mainly MVFR conditions south. Ceilings will gradually lift back into the MVFR category all locations as the area becomes warm sectored. Winds will also become a little gusty. The threat for non convective LLWS will diminish between 15Z and 18Z as diurnal mixing takes place and the strength of the winds aloft decreases. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Monday night. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visbilities to return Tuesday night into Wednesday night. MVFR conditions possible at times Thursday and Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...Hickman

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