Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 290823 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 423 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY IN A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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AREA IS IN A HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. A COMPACT VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THIS MORNING. A PATCH OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX AND ARE HEADED NORTH ACROSS CINCINNATI TOWARD DAYTON. THEREFORE...WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND CINCINNATI. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS AROUND DAYTON WHERE IT IS LESS CERTAIN THAT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE DIRECT INFLUENCE OF THE VORT MAX...KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP MAINLY DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 80S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOSS DAYTIME HEATING IN A ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK FORCING. FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL FEATURE A PLUME OF COPIOUS MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH PWAT ABOUT 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL. INCREASING CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED PERIOD DURING WHICH CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY. THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY EVENING WHEN FRONTAL POSITION AND LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE. THE GRADUAL MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ON SUNDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MOIST AIRMASS AND THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COOLER HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 70 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IN CLOUDS...PRECIP AND COLD ADVECTION.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SITUATE ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. AS THE WINDS SHIFT AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH...EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION AS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER KENTUCKY. HPC SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH IS NOT APPARENT IN THE SURFACE DEPICTIONS FOR EITHER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE A MORE PRONOUNCED HOLD ON THE REGION WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY HELP SUPPORT THE ARGUMENT FOR A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WED AND THURS. TEMPS WILL BE COOL TO START WITH. SUNDAYS HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH...WARMING TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOSE TO THE LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT. BY THEN THERE SHOULD BE INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE REGION SO THAT MID AND UPPER 60S ARE MORE INDICATIVE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIP WILL BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND NEVER QUITE LEAVE THE FORECAST ENTIRELY AS THE NORTHERN PUSH OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR MAY BE A STRONG ENOUGH CONVERGENT FORCE OVER KY WHERE SOME MORE MOIST AIR WILL RESIDE. INITIALLY THOUGHT THUNDER FOR THE FORECAST BUT TONED BACK TO JUST SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP. AFTER THIS TIME DAYTIME HEATING AND A RETURN TO SOUTH FLOW WOULD NECESSITATE INCLUSION OF THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH OF KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVING INTO CWA FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH VCSH ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW BUT A BRIEF MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE IF SHRA PASSES ACROSS AIRPORT. CIGS SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR THROUGH PERIOD. SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO LONG TERM...FRANKS AVIATION...PADGETT

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