Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000 FXUS61 KILN 050209 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 1009 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING EAST THROUGH KENTUCKY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE FA TONIGHT. CI BLOW OFF SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN AS THE STORMS WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. WITH THE BETTER CLOUD COVER ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA...WENT WARMER TEMPS THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S NRN KY. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL START THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE FA. FFG VALUES ARE AROUND AN INCH IN THREE HOURS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED TO SEE IF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... POTENT LOW PRESSURE CONTAINING COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL BE TRAVELING THROUGH KENTUCKY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FA...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF FARTHER FROM THE LOW. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM. WENT CLOSER TO THE MOISTER SOLUTION OF THE NAM AND ECMWF AND AWAY FROM THE DRIER GFS WHICH HAS THE LOW TRACKING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE LOW CENTER TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN A RATHER COOL REGIME OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. HOWEVER...FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS. WEATHER WILL SETTLE DOWN BY FRIDAY WHEN THE LOW IS FORECAST TO SCOOT EAST...LEAVING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WHICH MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONTAL ZONE IS PROGGED TO SET UP LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A HUMID AIRMASS. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW ON THURSDAY...WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHS WILL START TO REBOUND FRIDAY...RISING INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TONIGHT AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE NW TO WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A BROKEN CI DECK ACROSS THE TAFS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. CI DECK WILL DROP TO THE S BY SUNRISE...BUT AN AC DECK IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO CVG/LUK AFT 12Z. THIS DECK SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE SRN TAFS FOR THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY AT KLUK WHERE SHALLOW FOG WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR AREA WIDE SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT WITH THE DIRECTION GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME. OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NOVAK NEAR TERM...SITES SHORT TERM...NOVAK LONG TERM...CONIGLIO AVIATION...SITES

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