Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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673 FXUS63 KDDC 121008 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 508 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and thunderstorm chances today into Monday. - A few stronger storms today could turn severe with the main threat of hail larger than quarters and wind gusts approaching 60 mph. - Another system mid week will bring rain and storm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 06z observations and RAP upper air analysis shows a larger upper low centered in south central Colorado with a shortwave ejecting into western and northwestern Kansas. This wave has spread cloud cover and a line of rain showers mainly along and west of highway 83. At the surface a 1010 mb low is developing in eastern Colorado and surface dewpoints are in the low 50s suggesting decent moisture ahead of the main forcing. Today as the upper level shortwave moves through western Kansas we will see the first round of rain and embedded thunderstorms move from west to east ending by late morning. Areas west of highway 283 could see some breaks in the clouds and rain enough that we could have some added instability ahead of the main upper low. After noon as the low enters into western Kansas with the good forcing and CAPE values around 1000-1500 j/KG we should see another round of scattered thunderstorms develop. CAM models seem to want the best chance of storm somewhere from Liberal to La Crosse but we really could see storm develop anywhere in western Kansas. With the CAPE and 0-6 km shear around 30-40 kts hail and wind are possible in the stronger storms. Hodographs are trending at good lower level shear for updrafts but then west to southwesterly winds aloft will produce backing that should keep the updrafts from being strong past 15 kft. Hence main threat will be hail quarter size or slightly larger and wind gusts. Tornado risk should be low with these hodograph soundings but whenever you have a closed low in the vicinity of storms there`s still a possibility of some brief spinups/landspouts. Tonight should be the best opportunity for some widespread rain and higher rainfall amounts as the slow moving low will be centered in north central Kansas and upward motion in the 700 mb layers should be the strongest in southwest Kansas. Any residual CAPE that isn`t used from the afternoon convection should respond to this forcing tonight to produce rain and embedded thunderstorms. Even low end amount forecast still show 0.25-0.50 inch for areas along and east of highway 83 with high end amounts of over 1 inch. Probabilities of 0.5 inch rain is in the 50-80% tonight west of highway 83 would suggest most of us should get a good soaking. Monday with the slow propagation eastward of the low and lift on the backside another round of rain and clouds should be expected mainly along and east of highway 283. Rainfall amounts will be lesser on Monday as 0.05-0.10 inch have 40-50% probability and the higher amounts have the probabilities fall quickly. With the clouds, rain, and colder air hanging on in our eastern zones temperatures will probably be in the upper 60s for highs and in the west we could start to see some breaks in the clouds and with the warmer 850 mb temps near the Colorado border we could see highs in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 225 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Tuesday should be a quiet day as the upper low departs and a brief upper level ridge moves into the central plains. Winds should be light and with sunny skies highs should reach into the 80s. Wednesday into Thursday ensemble models in the upper levels have a large trough extending from central Canada back southwest to Arizona. The first mid level shortwave and forcing will bring a frontal zone from northwest Kansas to eastern Nebraska and thunderstorms are forecast to develop Wednesday morning mainly along and north of I-70 (POPS in the 40-50% range) with lesser chances as you go south (20-30% around highway 50). A larger and stronger trough is forecast to move into western Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday. The track of the trough is setting up to move from eastern New Mexico through the panhandle of Texas and if we can get this track that would prove favorable for rain chances in southwest Kansas. Latest NBMv4.1 POPs Wednesday night into Thursday have ~60% and ensemble forecast for QPF amounts are high for at least 0.10 inch (~90%) and increasing for 0.5 inch (50-80% for areas south and east of Dodge City). Severe weather is not anticipated as the boundary layer winds will be more northerly and stronger cold air advection at the surface should limit the instability potential we have in May. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 507 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Periods of showers and storms for all terminals will be expected during the time period. Best opportunity for storms will be between 08-14Z this morning and then again between 20-03Z later today. Cloud ceilings with the storms should be mainly MVFR (around 60%) with some smaller probability of IFR at times (~10%). Breaks in the clouds between 14-20Z could also provide some brief VFR flight category. Winds in general will be between 8-15 kts however any thunderstorms in the vicinity of the airport could provide some brief wind gusts. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Tatro AVIATION...Tatro