Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 240507
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1207 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance for thunderstorms returns to areas mainly along and
  south of I-80 overnight tonight. Severe weather is not
  expected.

- Cloudy and windy (gusts to 45 mph) Sunday with better chances
  for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Some
  thunderstorms will have the potential to be strong to severe,
  mainly south of I-80, with hail/damaging winds being the
  primary threats.

- Snow will be possible on the backside of this system, with
  several inches of accumulation possible mainly north and west
  of the Nebraska Tri-Cities. Due to the potential for 50 to 55
  MPH winds accompanying this snow, a winter storm watch is now
  in effect for several counties across south central Nebraska.

- Very cold start to the day Tuesday, with widespread wind
  chills below zero and approaching minus 10 degrees north of
  I-80.

- Warmest day of the forecast period is Thursday, when 60s to
  near 70 degree temperatures are expected. Unsettled weather
  returns Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Clouds and a few showers/flurries moved across the forecast area
earlier today. The last of these radar returns should exit to
our east over the next couple of hours, with a mostly sunny,
but cool, finish to the day.

Southerly flow will then strengthen and begin to advect
additional moisture towards the local area overnight tonight.
As the atmosphere saturates, expect a bit of elevated
instability to allow for the development of isolated showers and
thunderstorms, although given the limited instability, severe
weather is not expected. An upper level disturbance is then
expected to lift northeast out of the longwave trough and across
the local area late Sunday afternoon and evening, providing the
forcing for additional shower and thunderstorm development.
Given the increased moisture and subsequent instability values
across the local area, some of the storms that do develop could
be on the strong to severe side, with the area of slight risk
from the SPC extending into our north central Kansas counties
and the marginal risk for severe weather extending further north
to roughly I-80. While the focus of strong to severe storms
should be during the late afternoon and evening hours, models
indicate a fair amount of shower and thunderstorm activity
across the area during the morning through early afternoon
hours Sunday, but confidence of much during this time period is
on the lower side, so trended pops down for the early part of
the day - with focus for more widespread development expected
after 4 PM. While shower and thunderstorm coverage during the
daytime hours tomorrow is a bit in question, winds are less
questionable, with wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph expected
throughout the day as a strengthening pressure gradient is
realized across the local area ahead of the surface low.

As the severe weather potential diminishes tomorrow evening,
the focus will shift to our northwest - where a rapidly
advancing cold front will be approaching the northwestern
fringes of the area by midnight. Models have fluctuated
significantly with snowfall amounts over the past couple of
days, and the latest NBM even has lowered totals across the
local area, but given the potential for this to shift again and
some models (like the EC/NAM) bringing a swath of much high
totals across our western counties, thought it was prudent to
issue a winter storm watch for the counties that will be most
impacted by 50 to 50 MPH and snowfall overnight Sunday and into
the daytime hours Monday.

As the upper level low then wobbles across the local area
Monday, expect snowfall to potentially linger into the evening
hours, before tapering off late Monday night. In fact, some
models have a secondary band of snow later in the day mainly
from the Tri-cities east on Monday, which could present an
additional challenge if it develops. Needless to say,
uncertainty is high, and may eventually need to not only
increase the snowfall totals, but spread the higher snowfall
totals further east as well. Stay tuned.

Behind this system, a cool start to the day Tuesday coupled with
still breezy northwesterly winds will result in sub-zero wind
chills across a large portion of the local area, with readings
as low as -10 across areas north of I-80. Thereafter, the
longwave trough should begin to transition eastward and a
warming trend should be realized Wednesday into Thursday - of
course depending on how much snow actually falls. If snow free,
temperatures should easily climb into the 60s to near 70 by
Thursday afternoon, making it the warmest day of the period.

Active weather is then expected to return for the end of the
week as an upper level disturbance breaks through the ridge and
brings a chance for some light rainfall to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Rain showers move in from the west over the next few hours. Any
freezing rain accumulation should stay north of GRI/EAR. Cannot
rule out some isolated thunder, but probability too low to
include in this TAF issuance.

LLWS continues tonight until stronger surface winds arrive mid
Sunday morning.

Ceilings decrease to IFR Sunday morning, but most of the daytime
will remain dry. Better chances for rain (possibly some
thunderstorms) arrives Thursday evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     NEZ039>041-046>049.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through late Monday night
     for NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Mangels


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