Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 180746
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
246 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Today, central and southeast Illinois will be strongly under the
influence of a large surface high, currently centered over northern
Ontario. Aloft, northwest flow persists, with any active short waves
in the near term expected to stay south of the forecast area.

The light winds and mostly clear skies (more clouds exist across
southern Illinois) have allowed patchy fog to develop early this
morning. The fog is locally dense in spots, but temperature/dew
point spreads in most areas suggest the fog will not get as
widespread as last night.

Once the early morning fog burns off, the rest of the day should be
quiet and a little warmer than yesterday. The dry easterly low level
flow should help minimize diurnal cloud development. While
significant warm advection is not expected to occur, more abundant
insolation today should boost high temperatures a few degrees from
yesterday, with highs mainly in the lower 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

Forecast area remains on periphery of high pressure over the Great
Lakes into Friday, keeping conditions dry. Focus into the weekend
remains with the shortwave current along the British Columbia coast.
Latest model guidance slows the wave down a tad as it moves into the
upper Midwest, although there is enough progress to warrant 40%
PoP`s by Saturday afternoon across the northwest third of the CWA.
CAPE`s forecast to be 1500-2500 J/kg by late afternoon, although
shear values are a bit more modest. Highest PoP`s expected in the
evening before storms weaken after midnight. Have lingered some
PoP`s across the southeast third into Sunday morning, before the
front reaches the Ohio River.

High pressure still expected to dominate the Midwest from Monday
through midweek, keeping us dry. Temperatures expected to be cooler
than normal again early next week, with a northwest flow to start
the week. By midweek, upper ridging will be building across the
middle of the nation, allowing for a warming trend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

SCT/BKN mid level clouds remain over east-central IL and will
continue to shift eastward and dissipate overnight. High pressure
just north of the Great Lakes will bring light E/NE flow
for the next 24 h, with wind speeds generally 4-7 kts. Fog
possible overnight...mainly south of KSPI-KMTO. Generally VFR-MVFR
conditions, however locally LIFR/VLIFR possible. Mostly clear
skies for the daytime hours with only some diurnal CU.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...ONTON






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