Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 221944
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
244 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Cooler and drier air will continue to filter southeast into our
area tonight bringing some very pleasant weather to the region
through the remainder of the work week. The combination of a
clear sky and light wind should allow temperatures to drop into
the low 50s north to the upper 50s south of I-70. High pressure
will be centered to our west on Wednesday bringing plenty of
sunshine to the area along with afternoon temperatures close to
the 80 degree mark.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

The fair weather system will be positioned over our area Wednesday
night into Thursday morning which should allow early morning lows
to once again dip into the low to mid 50s. Models indicate a weak
sheared out shortwave rotating south into the lower Great Lakes
region on Thursday but forecast soundings exhibit a rather dry air
mass in place over central Illinois so other than some mid level
clouds at times, we are not expecting any precipitation with the
aforementioned wave at this time. A rather quiet weather pattern
will hold into at least the start of the upcoming weekend as our
shortwave that pushes across the area later Thursday helps to
maintain a trof over the eastern Great Lakes keeping us in a
northwesterly flow aloft. This should bring below normal
temperatures into the start of the weekend before the next upper
level wave approaches the area on Sunday which should help to push
temperatures closer to or just above the 80 degree mark for the
remainder of this forecast period.

As far as precipitation is concerned, it appears the wave on Sunday
will edge closer to us later in the day with some low chance POPs
in the forecast for Sunday night, with shower and thunderstorm
chances continuing into the first part of the new work week. Models
are much more agreeable with respect to the tropical disturbance
associated with the remnants of Harvey that is forecast to edge
into eastern Texas later this week and not move much until early
next week. Meanwhile, a weak upper level trof is forecast to be
across our area early next week that will bring daily chances for
at least afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms.
Just how the trof over our area will affect the tropical system,
if at all, is still in question, but we will have plenty of time
to see the model trends with this feature as most of the extended
forecast models agree it won`t start to edge towards the Ohio
Valley until late Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Cigs will lift to VFR and scatter out this afternoon as much drier
air filters southeast into the forecast area. Based on current
trends with the visible satellite loop, we may see a brief period
of bkn cigs at 2000-3000 feet early this afternoon before the
drier air starts to work on the cig bases after 20z. Most of the
area will see a tempo scattered to broken group early on with a
trend towards a scattered deck by mid to late afternoon. A clear
sky is expected overnight into Wednesday morning with west to
northwest wind of 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts approaching 20 kts
at times this afternoon. The winds will be light northwest tonight
with speeds of 5 kts or less.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith



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