Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 070945
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
345 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

High pressure ridge sitting across southern IL will keep the surface
winds across the CWA out of the west to northwest next 24hrs. In the
upper levels, a weak trough will move toward the area today,
reaching the CWA overnight. This feature will bring additional
clouds to the area for today through this evening. Due to lack of
moisture in the air, not expecting any precip over the CWA through
tonight. If any thing does occur, it will be very light flurries.
Most of the central and southeast parts of the CWA will see temps
above freezing, while the northern areas, including Galesburg,
Peoria, and Bloomington will be below freezing. The location of the
high pressure ridge will allow much colder temps to advect into the
area for tonight. So, expecting lows ranging from around 15 in the
northwest to the lower 20s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Bitterly cold temperatures on the way through the end of the week.
Next precip system for the weekend starting to show some consistency
in GFS and ECMWF.  For now, however, a snowy weekend...starting
Saturday afternoon/evening and through Sunday night.

Cold Arctic air making its way into the forecast area and by
tomorrow, max daytime temps will be in the 20s.  Overnight lows
dropping each day until widespread teens Thu night/Friday morning.
Winds Friday morning will be up a bit, dropping wind chills to
single digits. The freeze will continue through Friday as well.

Temperatures warm slightly for Saturday with southerly winds ahead
of the next wave.  Some differences still in the models with the GFS
persisting with a deeper sfc low, and more amplified flow at h5. The
ECMWF is far more zonal overall, and lingers the precip considerably
longer into Sunday night.  For now, the weekend looks to be
dominated by some snow...with light accumulations for
Saturday...best chances for accumulations look to be Saturday night
if the models maintain their current trends.  Snowy Sunday morning
slowly coming to an end as the evening approaches.  Cold through
days 6 and 7, max temps in the 20s and 30s...but will be seeing
another blast of Arctic air for frigid temps by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Little
overall change from previous thinking with some mid and high level
clouds streaming northeast into the forecast area. Forecast
soundings indicating cloud bases AOA 8000 ft on Wednesday before
the mid level clouds shift east and south of the TAF sites by
evening. However, as a secondary cold front moves through the
area, we will have to watch the progress of some stratocumulus
clouds to our northwest which may start to affect our northern
TAF sites just after 06z Wednesday night/Thu morning. Surface
winds will be westerly tonight at 5 to 10 kts and then westerly
winds on Wednesday at 10 to 15 kts will become northwest and
increase to 12 to 17 kts Wednesday evening.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Smith



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