Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 050524
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1124 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Accumulating snows have ended along highway 50 from Clay to
Lawrence counties, so the winter weather advisory was cancelled a
little earlier. There could still be a few flurries from time to
time toward Lawrenceville, but no additional accumulation is
expected. Measurable snows will linger not far off to the
southeast of our counties however, as headlines in far SE IL
continue the rest of the night. The remainder of central Illinois
will see periods of mid and high clouds overnight, as a weak
surface trough moves from southeast Iowa across western into
southern Illinois. A few flurries could even be generated from the
feature for areas from Rushville to Jacksonville.

The overall surface pressure pattern will be dominated by
advancing cold high pressure from later tonight through Friday. We
are still expected lows tonight to dip below zero from Galesburg
to Lacon, with single digits for lows as far south as I-70. Winds
will generally diminish after midnight, but we still expect wind
chills down into the -10 to -15F range by morning.

Updates this evening were mainly needed in the PoP and weather
grids, with the remainder of the forecast on track. Updated
forecast info is already available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Snow continues to fall across southern Illinois this afternoon.
Radar trends show lots of snow still back in southern MO that will
move into parts of southern and southeastern IL this evening. Unsure
of amounts down there and think snow will continue past 00z. So have
decided to extend the advisory til 9pm/03z. Otherwise, sky cover
will start mostly cloudy and then gradually clear from northwest to
southeast as the 500mb trough moves through the area, scattering
things out some. Believe most areas will be mostly clear by morning.
Another surge of Arctic air will arrive tonight as well with winds
out of the northwest at around 10-15mph. This cold Arctic air will
bring temps down to below zero around the Galesburg area, with
single digits over most of the area and then 10-14 along and
southeast of I-70. Snow should have ended in the southeast shortly
after midnight. Overnight lows, plus northwest winds will create
wind chills below minus 10F, but do not think they well get low
enough to warrant a wind chill advisory tonight. If wind chill did
reach low enough, it would be in extreme northwest and only for a
couple of hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

Arctic high pressure will approach central IL from the northwest
Thursday bringing a continued flow of cold and dry air from the
northwest. Breezy northwest winds 10 to 15 mph will accompany highs
only reaching the teens across central IL. Winds will taper off
quickly in the evening to early morning Friday as the high crosses
central IL bringing another cold night with lows in the single
digits. The high will push eastward early Friday morning while a
surface pressure trough approaches from the northwest initiating a
return to breezy southerly winds. Highs will begin a warming trend
reaching the upper 20s and low 30s. A series of weather disturbances
will move by to the north over the weekend while the deep trough
over the eastern U.S. shifts eastward and a warmer air mass builds
into the Midwest from the southwest. Temperatures will continue
their upward climb through the weekend and into next week with highs
expected to reach the 50s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period as a surface
high pressure slides over the terminals tonight into tomorrow. The
departing storm system over southern Illinois is leaving some
lingering cloud cover over the TAF sites. A BKN layer at 17kft is
included for all of the sites to begin the period, with the
exception of PIA. Lower level clouds, which are evident on
satellite over southeast Iowa into western Illinois, have already
entered GBG upstream of PIA, so have included a BKN layer at 4kft
for PIA. This lower cloud layer may make its way into the other
sites, but just kept a SCT deck for the other sites at 4kft. Skies
will begin to clear as the surface high presses further into
central Illinois later tomorrow. Winds will be around 5 to 10 kts out
of the northwest tonight into tomorrow, shifting to the west and
south and becoming light by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Onton
AVIATION...ALW





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