Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 222003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
303 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

A surface boundary will slowly move into the area this evening and
bring light showers to northwest parts of the CWA for tonight.
Models differ on amount of precip expected but it looks like higher
pops will be initially in the northwest and then diminish through
the night. The likelihood of precip will increase again during
the early morning hours in northwest and then continue to increase
to the east and south during the day tomorrow as the main
boundary/low pressure area finally gets into the CWA.

Clouds and precip will keep the temp spread small next 24hrs. So,
expecting lows in the 50s with highs Tuesday afternoon
the lower to middle 60s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

The low pressure area that moves into the area will become
filled/vertically stacked and then slowly spin over the eastern
midwest/western OH valley through Thur morning. This will keep a
continued threat of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the CWA.
There could be a break in the precip Thur and Thur night as the
system pulls away to the east. Then another weather system will
arrive for Fri and Fri night with showers and storms possible. The
remainder of the weekend will be quite unsettled with the chance of
showers and storms continuing into Sunday night.

Temps through the period will start cool and then warm back into the
70s and lower 80s for Sat and Sunday. Overall guidance looks ok, but
may be a tad warm for Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Though a
boundary will drop into the area, cig heights will remain above
5kft this evening and through tomorrow. PIA and BMI will see
precip arrive first, late this afternoon...followed by SPI and
then DEC and CMI toward midnight. Cigs will become broken at all
sites around the time the precip starts at the sites. PIA and BMI
could see a break in the precip during the overnight hours, but
then it will return during the overnight hours. SPI/DEC/CMI may
see a break too, but it would be very short lived, so no break in
VCSH in the TAFs. Winds will remain southwest through the
afternoon and then become southerly to southeasterly overnight and
through tomorrow.




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