Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KILX 251154
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
654 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE IL/WI BORDER THIS
MORNING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER STILL IN THE
REGION, BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
NW.  ILX SITUATED IN A GAP AS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.  MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOVING OUT OF THE SYSTEM, WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY.  ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT MAJORITY OF
THE ACTIVITY SCOURS OUT IN ALL OF THE MODELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY.
LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES AFTER 18Z TO COVER AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STILL WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD IT GET THE
CHANCE TO RECOVER/RESTRATIFY.  HOWEVER, A SMALL AREA OF MIDLEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING MAY GIVE US ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTER THE EFFECTS...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE
END OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EARLY EVENING AND DROPPED THE POPS
BACK DOWN BEFORE 06Z. EITHER WAY...WINDS ALOFT WITH THE PASSING OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS
TODAY...GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY MID DAY AND SLOWLY BACKING OFF AS
THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST REMAINS WARM AND MUGGY WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN
MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER RH. YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.  MORE SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS.  FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF
SFC WIND SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT.  CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO WEAK FLOW OVERALL
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND SETTING UP CHANCES FOR PERIODIC DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THE SHOWERS IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE LIFTING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD EFFECT PIA/SPI THIS MORNING. FOR OTHER TAF
SITES WILL JUST KEEP VCSH IN THE MORNING HOURS. ONCE THE PCPN
MOVES OUT, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER WAVE/BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FOR
TUE NIGHT...WITH MOVE SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXCEPT FOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ALL TAF SITES WILL BE MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT ALL TAF SITES WILL HAVE
PREDOMINATE SHOWERS WITH VCTS. WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY THIS
MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTH BUT THEN TAPER SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THEN WILL LOOSE THE GUSTINESS DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.