Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS63 KILX 051755
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Updated the forecast today just to adjust the sky cover otherwise
rest of forecast looks on track. Highs in the mid 30s northern
CWA, upper 30s central CWA and lower 40s in southeast IL from I-70
south where more sunshine today. Broken to overcast low clouds
from 1-2k ft over central/ne CWA this morning while high cirrus
clouds spreading east form IA/MO into central IL late this
morning. Southeast IL along and south of I-70 has been enjoying
ample sunshine this morning. Despite nearby 1032 mb high pressure
ridge over KY and MO, an upper level short wave trof moves toward
IL tonight. This will tend to keep more cloud around today over
central IL while some high clouds increase over southeast IL
during the afternoon. Winds stay fairly light today less than 10
mph with high pressure near IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A weak, dry front will quickly move through the CWA this morning,
followed by a high pressure area that will dominate the weather
through the rest of the day. The front, though dry, is bringing
lower clouds through the northern half of the CWA this morning but
should be out of the area by early afternoon. However, high clouds
will stream into the area this afternoon, so skies over most of the
area will be mostly sunny with northern areas becoming partly
sunny/mostly cloudy. Winds will be westerly through most of the
period, but become light and variable by late this afternoon as high
pressure ridge sets up over the area. Temps will remain around
normal today and model guidance looks good, so took a blend of the
models.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Little change in the going forecast for much of the weekend. Still
looks mild both Saturday and Sunday, with highs well into the 40s.
Main feature of note in the longer range remains with the surge of
cold air early next week. Clipper system preceding the cold air
should be centered over central/northern Wisconsin by Sunday
evening. NAM and GFS bring this southward to near southern Lake
Michigan by Monday morning, while the ECMWF is a bit further east
across lower Michigan. These scenarios continue to support the 30-
40% chances of snow for Monday, as the associated upper low pushes
toward the Ohio Valley. Some rain may be mixed in across the
southeast third of the CWA, as temperatures there reach the upper
30s before tailing off in the afternoon as the upper low comes
overhead. The snow chances will diminish Monday night, with amounts
on the light side, probably less than 1 inch.

Models start to diverge some on Tuesday in regards to the amount of
Arctic air streaming southeast into the Midwest. Latest GFS has been
shifting the core of the very cold air into the central/eastern
Great Lakes region for mid week, while the ECMWF continues a steady
stream of 850 mb temperatures of around -17C into our area for
Tuesday and Wednesday before the upper trough swings east. Current
forecasts will continue to follow the colder scenario with Tuesday
and Tuesday night being the coldest periods. Temperatures should
moderate late in the week as the upper ridge over the Rockies
flattens and starts to bring Pacific-origin air into our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Broken to overcast MVFR clouds of 1.5-2k ft from PIA and DEC
eastward across east central/ne IL will gradually scatter out
during the afternoon, occurring last at CMI after 21Z/3 pm.
Already have broken cirrus clouds spreading east over central IL
at midday and will see these ceilings gradually lower during
tonight to range from 4-6k ft overnight into Sat morning. MVFR
ceilings should stay nw of IL river/PIA overnight into Saturday
morning along with chances of flurries. These clouds due to a
northern stream short wave trof that tracks ESE across the Midwest
and into IL on Saturday. WNW winds around 5 kts to become light
and variable this evening. Winds will become sw 5-10 kts during
Saturday morning. These fairly light winds are due to 1034 mb
surface high pressure from the lower MS river valley and ridging
northward into MO/KY, that stays close to IL into Sat morning.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Auten
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...07


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