Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 041528
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1028 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
WEAK BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA THIS MORNING.
SOME PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THAT BOUNDARY MOVED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOME MINOR UPDATES FOR THE MORNING WERE NECESSARY,
BUT LITTLE TO NO UPDATES NECESSARY FOR THE BULK OF THE CWA. CIRRUS
AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA...ORIENTED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MO AND SOUTHERN IL. THIS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND IS
MOVING ESE AND MAY EFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IL LATER TODAY. WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST IL AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST IL THROUGH THE DAY. WORDED FORECAST WILL READ AS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE GRIDS SAY SLIGHT CHANCE. CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
IL AS WELL. TEMPS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...GIVEN
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH...NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. COMPROMISE OF GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

00Z MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD LOW PRESSURE TRACK INTO MID MS
VALLEY DURING MID WEEK AND HENCE ARE SLOWER BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NE INTO CENTRAL IL TONIGHT AND WED. SPC
HAS TAKEN MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SW OF CENTRAL IL NEXT FEW
DAYS. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED POPS IN NE CWA DURING THIS TIME WITH
MAINLY SLIGHT POPS FROM I-74 NE TONIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS FROM I-
74 NE ON WED. HAVE GOOD CHANCES POPS SW CWA BY OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY
POPS SW CWA WED. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WED NIGHT INTO THU
MORNING WITH 70-90% POPS IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND HEAVIEST QPF
DURING THIS TIME WITH 1-1.50 INCHES FROM I-70 SOUTH AND LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. JUST CHANCE POPS NORTHERN CWA
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHERN IL BY 12Z/THU AND THEN INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THU. CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGHS WED MOSTLY IN
THE LOWER 80S WITH LAWRENCEVILLE NEAR 85F. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S THU WITH COOLEST READINGS IN EAST CENTRAL AND SE IL
WHERE MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO
MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY RETURNING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL IL AND LINGERS INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

LATEST 00Z FORECAST MODELS FOR EXTENDED PERIOD KEEP FORECAST FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IL
GETS BACK INTO A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES PASSING SE NEAR IL AND BRINGING SMALL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IL RIVER VALLEY SAT
AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT AND ACROSS AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY MODIFY A BIT INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24HRS. HIGH
CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE WHOLE AREA TODAY. AN OLD
WEAK BOUNDARY IS SITUATED IN PARTS OF EASTERN MO AND WESTERN IL
THIS MORNING. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE MINOR AND
SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES. THEN AC
CLOUDS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING PCPN BACK TO THE
TAFS...BUT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEW MODEL RUNS ARE HINTING THAT
PCPN WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL AFTER 12Z. SO FOR NOW, WILL LEAVE PCPN
OUT OF FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE/SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...AUTEN



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