Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 251744
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1244 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER EAST OF I-55...BUT THESE WILL BE EXITING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP`S EAST OF I-57
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY ALREADY
NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...AND A LARGER HOLE IN THE CLOUDS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY AFTERNOON PER THE RAP MODEL...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHEAST
CWA WILL LIKELY SEE MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS. HAVE HAD SOME GUSTS
40-45 MPH AROUND DECATUR AND CHAMPAIGN ON THE LATEST OBS...BUT THE
HRRR MODEL SHOWS THESE HIGH WINDS SHIFTING INTO INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING...AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE IL/WI BORDER THIS
MORNING.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER STILL IN THE
REGION, BUT MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS THE
NW.  ILX SITUATED IN A GAP AS THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING.  MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE MOVING OUT OF THE SYSTEM, WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLY AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY.  ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT WITH THE INCREASING INSTABILITY AFTER SUNRISE...BUT MAJORITY OF
THE ACTIVITY SCOURS OUT IN ALL OF THE MODELS SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY.
LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCES AFTER 18Z TO COVER AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY WITH ANY REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STILL WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD IT GET THE
CHANCE TO RECOVER/RESTRATIFY.  HOWEVER, A SMALL AREA OF MIDLEVEL
RIDGING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING MAY GIVE US ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO COUNTER THE EFFECTS...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE
END OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE EARLY EVENING AND DROPPED THE POPS
BACK DOWN BEFORE 06Z. EITHER WAY...WINDS ALOFT WITH THE PASSING OF
THE SHORTWAVE AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS
TODAY...GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH BY MID DAY AND SLOWLY BACKING OFF AS
THE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST REMAINS WARM AND MUGGY WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. REGION DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROF IN THE SW
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.  A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PATTERN
MID WEEK IS ONLY TEMPORARY AS TEMPS REMAIN WARM WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE ONLY REINFORCED BY PERIODIC SHOWERS ENHANCING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER RH. YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW LIFTS INTO THE MIDWEST MOVING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.  MORE SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MUGGY AIRMASS.  FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAK AT BEST AND WILL ONLY SEE A BRIEF
SFC WIND SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY FROM SOUTHERLY FOR WED AND WED NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT.  CHANGE IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AS SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS REESTABLISH BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY SHIFTS TO WEAK FLOW OVERALL
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND SETTING UP CHANCES FOR PERIODIC DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIFTING AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY
18-19Z. THE STRONGEST OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AWAY
FROM KCMI...BUT WINDS THERE SHOULD STILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
OR SO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE REMAINING TAF SITES WILL HAVE
GUSTS MORE IN THE 25 KNOT RANGE...BUT THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARD
00Z. NEXT PERIOD FOR CONVECTIVE CONCERN APPEARS TO START AROUND
08-09Z WITH STORMS TRACKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN STORMS TUESDAY MORNING...SO
WILL GO WITH VCTS MENTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. TAIL END OF THE RAP
MODEL SUGGESTS SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT IN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND BUILDING NORTHWARD...AND HAVE ADDED THESE
FOR KBMI/KDEC/KCMI.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...GEELHART



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