Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 070818
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

07Z/2AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO OKLAHOMA.  SEVERAL WEAK WAVES OF LOW
LOW PRESSURE ARE NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY...INCLUDING ONE JUST WEST
OF KAAA AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.  LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS HAS NOW PUSHED JUST EAST OF
THE I-55 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF MISSOURI AND
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  ONCE THE MISSOURI LOW TRACKS INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS BY
MIDDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL GET PULLED TOWARD THE I-57 CORRIDOR AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE ACROSS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.  HAVE GONE
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE BOARD THIS
MORNING...THEN HAVE ENDED RAIN CHANCES NORTHWEST OF A BLOOMINGTON TO
JACKSONVILLE LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND OFF AND ON SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN CONSIDERABLY
TODAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AS WAS FIRST SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z JULY 6 ECMWF...THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE NOW PUSHING THE FRONT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW MUCH OF THE
CWA TO EXPERIENCE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT.  WITH
BOUNDARY STALLING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...HAVE CONFINED RAIN CHANCES
TO LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH OF A PARIS TO TAYLORVILLE LINE.  FURTHER
NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE
COOLER/DRIER WEATHER WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 50S.

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TRAILING
END OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN TEXAS LATE TUESDAY...THEN TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  TOTAL QPF
FROM THIS EVENT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.25 ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER.

ONCE THE LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IN ITS
WAKE WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND ANOTHER BREAK IN PRECIP
CHANCES ON THURSDAY.  HAVE HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PREVAILING
BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT THINK THURSDAY WILL BE LARGELY DRY.  NEXT
PRECIP EVENT WILL UNFOLD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET FOCUSES ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.  MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A STORM COMPLEX
DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT...THEN SHIFTING E/NE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY FRIDAY.  HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...TAPERING DOWN TO
JUST LOW CHANCE ALONG THE INDIANA BORDER.  WILL CONTINUE POPS INTO
FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THIS
COMPLEX MOVES E/NE.

AFTER THAT...MAIN QUESTION FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE HOW
STRONG THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME THIS WEEKEND.  GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG RIDGE WITH A STORM TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE ECMWF FEATURES A
SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE.  EVEN THE WEAKER ECMWF SHOWS MUCH OF THE
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TOPPING THE RIDGE REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE
CWA...SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A HOT AND LARGELY DRY WEEKEND.
AS SUCH...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  RIDGE
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST.  THIS
WILL MEAN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER WEATHER BY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MARCH
SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT OUT TO OUR
WEST WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 07Z AND
10Z...THE I-55 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 10Z-14Z AND POINTS FURTHER EAST
IN THE 14Z-18Z TIME FRAME. IT IS RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WHERE WE SEE CIGS DROP TO MVFR WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTH
INTO NORTH CENTRAL IL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WE SHOULD SEE CIGS
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTR 19Z...WITH THE MVFR CIGS HOLDING FURTHER
SOUTH UNTIL EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND WEST AT 8 TO 13 KTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS AFTR FROPA TOMORROW MORNING AND HOLD FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION INTO THE EVENING.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...SMITH


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