Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 281612

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1112 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2016

Issued at 1108 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Thick cirrus in many places over Central Illinois impeding the
warm up this morning as the high pressure ridge axis slips to the
east. Return flow is advecting some warmer temperatures into the
region, and winds will continue to increase through the day and
into the evening as the pressure gradient tightens west of the
ridge. Temperatures will struggle to get to the upper 60s in the
east and around 70/low 70s in the west. Not many things to update,
but have dropped the MaxT a degree or two, particularly in the


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

High pressure will continue to move to the east today while a low
pressure area moves across the northern US into the Great Lakes
region by tonight. The gradient between this high pressure and low
pressure, and associated cold front, will cause surface winds to
increase today with gusts increasing to over 20mph by this
afternoon. These winds will be southerly and will bring an increase
to the warm air across the CWA, with the warmest afternoon temps
being in the western part of the CWA. Winds will decrease some this
evening, but breezy conditions are expected tonight as well. Lots of
high clouds over the area currently, and based on satellite trends,
looks like this will continue during into the daytime. HiRes models
bring lots of lower clouds and visibilities into the area now, but
this has not materialized as thought. So, will reserved with amount
of clouds today but keep some patchy fog in the forecast for this
morning. Lower clouds and visibilities may not reach the area until
the frontal system reaches into the area, so will keep a partly
cloudy forecast for today through tonight. Both high and low temps
will be well above normal, with highs in the 70s and low in the mid
50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Unseasonably mild temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s are
expected on Saturday and close to that again on Monday across
central and southeast IL. These readings are about 20 degrees above
normal for tail end of October. Record highs are in the low to mid
80s on Oct 29 and 31st so a few cities will be approaching those
values especially sw CWA. Breezy sw winds on Saturday along with
partly to mostly sunny skies (more sunshine over southern CWA). 00Z
models still show a cold front sagging southward from the Great
Lakes into central IL by dawn Sunday. This to bring a chance of
showers to northern CWA Sat night into early Sunday morning with
isolated thunderstorms north of I-74. Mild lows Sat night in the mid
50s to near 60F, coolest over northern CWA where cold front slips
through during overnight Saturday night.

Upper level ridging building back into IL already by sunset Sunday
as short wave exits east into the eastern Ohio river valley and mid
Atlantic states. Partly to mostly cloudy skies Sunday and cooler
highs ranging from mid 60s northern CWA to mid 70s in southeast IL.
Breezy south winds return on Monday and lift front back north of
central IL as low pressure tracks into the eastern Dakotas and west
central MN. Another unseasonably mild day in the upper 70s (around
80F sw CWA) with breezy south winds and mostly sunny skies. Mild
lows Monday night around 60F. Warm highs back in the 70s on Tue with
partly to mostly sunny skies.

Low pressure tracks east across the upper Great Lakes and into
Quebec by Tue evening. This will bring another frontal boundary into
WI/IA and eventually NW IL Tue night and Wed returning chances of
showers to the IL river valley and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
by Wed afternoon into early Wed evening. The frontal boundary
presses into central IL Wed night and Thu bringing chances of
showers further south into southeast IL too by Thu morning. Highs
Wed of 68-76F cool to low to mid 60s Thu over central IL and upper
60s to near 70F in southeast IL. Frontal boundary and mid level trof
exits southeast of IL by Friday with dry weather returning with
highs in the low to mid 60s, still staying above normal for early



.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

High cirrus is over all TAF sites early this morning and based on
satellite loops, believe this high cirrus will remain over the
sites most of the day. With winds being variable and speeds
increasing a little last several hours, believe dense fog
formation is being limited. Any dense fog should be very
localized, so am only going with light fog, 3-5sm, in the TAFs at
start and then continue into the morning hours. Any patchy fog
should lift once the sun is up and the winds begin to increase in
speeds during the daytime. Speeds should increase to around
12-14kts with gusts to 24kts. The gusty winds will continue into
the evening hours as well. Conditions will be too windy for any
fog development this evening.


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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