Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KILX 211545
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

Forecast overall looks in good shape and just a few adjustments to
sky cover and winds today. Much of central/se IL enjoying sunny skies
this morning with clouds se near the Ohio river and 2-4k ft broken
to overcast clouds just nne of our CWA over northern IL. Expect the
cumulus/stratocumulus clouds to expand southward into central IL
by afternoon with areas from I-74 seeing the most of these lower
clouds where skies to become mostly cloudy. Just scattered clouds
developing over sw areas where partly to mostly sunny skies
prevail this afternoon. These clouds due to strong 553 dm 500 mb
low over northern Lake MI which tracks into the eastern Great
Lakes into this evening and IL staying in its strong upper level trof.
Cooler highs today range from near 70F from I-74 ne to the mid 70s
in southeast IL by Lawrenceville. Breezy nw winds of 12-20 mph
with gusts of 20-30 mph today to make it feel a bit cooler today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

The precipitation and trailing cold front will have pushed well
south of the CWA by forecast time, so will not have any precip
mentioned in the forecast for today. Even though high pressure will
build into the plains, the area will remain under the influence of
cyclonic flow. This flow will combine with low level moisture from
the rain yesterday to produce partly to mostly sunny conditions,
with most of the clouds being in the northeast, closer to the upper
level system. As the upper level trough rotates through northeast
IL, some scatter showers could develop, but believe these will
remain northeast of the area. Colder air will advect into the region
today, so highs will only reach to around 70 over most of the CWA,
but low to mid 70s in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

High pressure continues to build into the region behind the frontal
passage this morning through the week.  Forecast remains quiet and
dominated by large ridge over much of the eastern half of the CONUS
and a persistent sfc ridge over the Midwest.  Weak flow under the
sfc high becomes more southerly on Tuesday as the ridge axis shifts
slightly eastward.  Slow warming trend starts as a result and
continues through the end of the week with warm temps just above
normals by Thursday. Although some  systems move across the country,
including a weak trof in the Plains for midweek, no precip is able
to move into the ridge and the forecast remains dry through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies at
all sites will be clear to start, but am expecting cumulus/stratocumulus
clouds to develop across the area, given the amount of low level
moisture still left over after the rain yesterday and the fact the
area remains in cyclonic flow aloft. So, seems ideal conditions
for scattered to broken cumulus clouds late this morning and into the
afternoon. Cloud heights should be around 3500-4000 ft. With the
clouds being diurnal, it should dissipate this evening and then
become clear overnight. Winds will be northwest to northerly
through the period. Momentum transfer in the model soundings
suggest some gust this afternoon of 20-25 kts.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...AUTEN






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.