Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 260930
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
330 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

A slow moving cold front, currently extending from the western Great
Lakes into to southern High Plains, will continue to creep toward
central and southeast Illinois today. Cloud cover will gradually
increase from the northwest with the approach of the front.
Southerly winds, gusting to near 25 mph at times today, will provide
the region with another unseasonably mild day. High temperatures
should peak out near 50 degrees area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

00Z forecast models continue slower trend of bringing in light rain
chances from the west tonight and most areas could stay dry this
evening with just small pops in western counties later this evening.
Have chances of light rain spreading east across central/eastern IL
during overnight and milder lows in the low to mid 40s tonight with
south winds 8-15 mph. 1008 mb low pressure over nw Texas at sunset
will eject quickly ne to southeast WI by dawn Sat, and into northern
lower MI by noon Sat. This will pull a cold front se through central
IL during the day Sat with likely chances of light rain showers. One
more mild day Sat in the upper 40s/lower 50s (except mid 40s nw of
IL river). Cold front pushes se of Wabash river by sunset Sat and
pushes into mid TN by dawn Sunday as another low pressure lifts ne
along it from southern MS river valley. Have light rain chances
lingering over southeast IL Sat night, and could mix in with a
little bit of light snow overnight Sat night before ending but no
accumulation expected. Lows Sat night range from mid 20s over IL
river valley to lower 30s in southeast IL.

Forecast models continue to show strong arctic high pressure
settling southward from Canadian Rockies into front range of US
rockies from Mon-Wed and ushering in colder air into IL with below
normal temps by middle of next week. Upper level trof digging
southward into the Great Lakes and Ohio river valley by middle of
next week to also help bring in cooler temps while best chances of
scattered light snow showers appears closer to the great lakes
region. Tue night and Wed should be the coldest time next week with
upper single digit and teens for lows Tue night. Just beyond the 7
day forecast, forecast models in agreement in showing a strong low
pressure system ejecting ne from the southern plains into the ohio
river valley by next Sat and this could bring more significant
precipitation to central/southeast IL, though GFS model has us on nw
fringe of this storm system and is colder than the ECMWF model.
Still a lot of time for forecast models to reflect better idea of
forecast for next weekend with this storm system.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VFR conditions will continue through 18z tomorrow, with MVFR
conditions developing during the afternoon from west to east.
The forecast soundings are in close agreement on the MVFR cloud
layer developing tomorrow afternoon. They also show light
rain/sprinkles possible before 00z/6pm. Based on the timing of low
pressure advancing up the cold front into central IL Friday night,
feel that sufficient lift for rain will hold off for PIA/SPI and
west until after 00z/6pm. Will go with steady rain only at PIA
after 02z/8pm, with VCSH at the remaining TAF sites except CMI.

A relatively tight pressure gradient between high pressure east of
IL and low pressure west of IL will keep steady southerly winds at
10-14kt the rest of tonight, with gusts developing into the 20-22kt
range tomorrow.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon





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