Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 210740
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
240 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Quiet but cool weather is expected across central and southeast
Illinois today as upper/surface ridging build into the area. Main
forecast concern today revolves around how much cloud cover may
still impact eastern portions of the forecast area which are most
under the influence of the departing mean upper wave/general
cyclonic flow. One more short wave is evident on water vapor imagery
diving due south toward the region from Lake Superior, a feature
that is helping to slow the departure of the cloud shield north and
just east of most of the forecast area. The model consensus suggests
that this wave will not dig too much and that it should not result
in the low clouds spreading across more of the area than they
already are. At this point, only far northeast portion of
forecast area has cloud cover, and this is where it is likely to
remain for much of the day. High temperatures today will be
several degrees cooler than yesterday, but lighter winds and full
sun (in most areas) should still allow for a pleasant fall day.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Main forecast concern remains with the frontal boundary on Thursday.
A shortwave currently entering northwest Nevada is expected to move
into the Plains states Wednesday afternoon, and across Illinois
Thursday evening. This evening`s model runs have been fairly uniform
in spreading showers further east than before, perhaps as early as
mid morning northwest of the Illinois River. Have introduced 30-40%
PoP`s along and west of I-55 by afternoon. The ECMWF and Canadian
models do bring the precipitation nearly to the Indiana border by
late afternoon, but the forecast soundings in that area remain
rather dry in the lower levels most of the day. Will have to keep an
eye on this though. Have lingered the rain across the northeast
quarter of the forecast area into Thursday evening, but rapid drying
from the top down will quickly diminish the rain as the wave moves
away.

As we get into late week into early next week, the main story will
be with the warm temperatures. Upper level ridging is expected to
build across the central U.S. this weekend, with 850 mb temperatures
progged to rise to around 17C by Sunday evening. This should be
enough to get highs into the lower 70s most areas this weekend and
into Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. The only
clouds of note will be VFR clouds at 6K FT streaming across NE
Illinois. Based on forecast soundings and satellite trends, it
appears those clouds will likely affect our area northeast of a
line from Peoria to Mattoon, including BMI and CMI. A BKN deck
may develop from time to time near BMI/CMI during the first 6-8
hours of the TAF period. Those clouds may linger as long as late
Tuesday afternoon just east of Champaign, but will not affect
aviation flight categories at all.

High pressure advancing into IL behind a cold front has already
produced light and variable winds, with a general direction from
the north. After sunrise tomorrow, wind direction should become
NNE around 8-10kt. After sunset, winds will become easterly and
diminish to 6kt or less.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Shimon





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