Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KILX 271121
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
621 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RATHER COOL
TEMPERATURES. IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH THE LARGE FAIR
WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING WITH THE MERCURY ALREADY DOWN TO 48
DEGREES HERE AT THE OFFICE IN LINCOLN WITH A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 50 DEGREES. TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS DECREASING AS WELL
SO SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANY
FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RAPIDLY THRU THE
MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING
AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING AS
MUCH CLOUDINESS AS WE SAW YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
MORE UNIFORM OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S FAR EAST TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE AND MOVES INTO THE REGION.  WAVE IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS SLIDING THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY.  ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE DOING BETTER
WITH THE TIMING OF THE WAVE, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BETTER
PRECIP COVERAGE IS STILL BEING CALLED INTO QUESTION. A DRY AIRMASS
OVERALL ON ILX SOUNDINGS IS PART OF THE PROBLEM.  ALTHOUGH THE SFC
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS LIMITED BY LIGHTER WINDS TO THE SOUTH.  THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING THE WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH IN THE LATEST RUNS AS
WELL.  STILL CONCERNED THAT THE PRECIP WILL STILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT THAN WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WEAKER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  GFS AND NAM STARTING TO TREND THAT
WAY, LINGERING THE PRECIP INTO SAT NIGHT AND IN THE EAST FOR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

WAVE MOVING THROUGH EFFECTIVELY SHIFTS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PAC COAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...AND RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY AFTER THE WEEKEND. HOT TEMPS UNDER THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DIFFUSE INTO THE REGION WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT
AND TEMPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMALS WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING THE 90 MARK BEFORE MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AT KBMI...KDEC AND
KCMI...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME LIGHT FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL
IL THIS MORNING BUT THAT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS TEMPERATURES
WARM UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD
BASES FROM 3500 TO 4500 FEET. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER
THE AREA TODAY...WINDS WILL BE A NON-FACTOR FOR AVIATION INTERESTS
WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW
10 KTS.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.