Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 161934
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
234 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Moisture channel imagery depicts the upper wave rotating to the
northeast into central NE this afternoon. Difluence ahead of wave
seen firing convection over MO in the frontal convergence. Good
deep moisture convergence along front over MO with MUCAPE ahead of
the MO line around 3000. Less instability over IL today due to
cloud cover and lower moisture values than to the west, with less
shear also noted than to the west associated in area of front.

Short range models have been very inconsistant today in the
convective development trends and so has been difficult to come up
with timing on any significant development or any rain free
periods. Therefore expect the trend to continue into the evening
of scattered showers and storms developing over parts of the
warm sector over eastern MO and central IL, with no well defined
significant complex. Models do finally agree on convective line or
complex moving into IL during the late evening hours, but timing
differences are still seen. Have tried to use blend of HRR, NAM
3km and ARW to get a forecast of pops and for TAFs in the timing
on the main pcpn to move through late this evening and overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

By Thu night, upper low closed off in Greak lakes region and
frontal zone has moved through. This will push pcpn east of area
and some drier air into area. Weak short wave shows up in all
operational models, sliding down back side of upper trof and
bringing quick chance of more pcpn into central IL Fri night.

Then next short wave rotates down into area Mon night into Tue
night, bringing another chance of pcpn with it. This system drags
another front into the area and so a better chance of rain will be
the case with this system. Temperatures through the period will
remain generally in the normal for mid August.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Areas of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to continue to
move over the region from this afternoon into the overnight hours.
Manly VFR conditions with the storms, as weak instability the rule
throughout the period. After the front moves through late tonight,
some mvfr and scattered IFR cigs comes in behind the front, which
may last over the western TAF sites through midday Thursday.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Goetsch



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