Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 310846

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
346 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT Wed Aug 31 2016

A delightful stretch of weather is expected for central and
southeast IL from Thursday through this Labor Day weekend. Dry
weather is expected to prevail through Sunday night across the CWA.
Temperatures will be a bit below normal through Saturday along with
more comfortable humidity levels. Temperatures and dewpoints will
then gradually rise early next week with slight chances of showers
and thunderstorms over the IL river valley on Monday (Labor Day)
into Tuesday. Better chances of convection over central IL on
Tuesday night and Wednesday of next week while just slight chances
over southeast IL next Wednesday.

561 dm 500 mb low over James Bay Canada will track southeast across
Quebec and into the St Lawrence valley by Thu night. The associatedu
upper level trof will be extending sw into the Great Lakes and will
develop scattered cumulus clouds over central and northeast IL on
Thursday especially during the afternoon hours. Some lake effect
rain showers will stay well northeast of our CWA on Thu from Chicago
northeast into lower MI. Meanwhile a 1028 mb Canadian high pressure
over central parts of Sasketchewan and Manitoba will settle slowly
southeast into the western Great Lakes on Friday and into the
eastern Great Lakes by Saturday night. As this surface high pressure
settles into the region, and upper level ridge will build east into
IL by Saturday and into the Ohio river valley by Sunday evening. The
combination of nearby surface and upper level high pressure ridges
will keep IL dry through much of this holiday weekend. Cooler highs
Thu and Fri in the mid to upper 70s, coolest reading from I-74
northeast. Lows Thu night and Fri night in the low to mid 50s, with
coolest readings in northeast CWA. Highs Sat in the upper 70s over
central IL and around 80F in southeast IL. Dewpoints mostly in the
mid 50s to near 60F from Thu-Sat. Ample sunshine expected Fri thru
Sunday with a few fair weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon

As surface high pressure drifts east toward New England and the mid
Atlantic States Sunday and Monday, expect southerly flow to bring in
warmer and more humid air. Highs Sunday of 80-85F and dewpoints in
the mid 60s. Highs in the mid 80s Monday with dewpoints in the upper
60s to near 70F to getting muggy then. 00Z models continue to show
weakening surface low pressure ejecting northeast from the central
plains into Lake Superior and central Ontario from Monday into Tue,
keeping highest chances of showers/thunderstorms nw of our CWA. Have
just 20% of convection over the IL river valley mainly nw of I-55
from Mon-Tue.

A tropical depression with 35 mph winds 430 miles southwest of Tampa
Bay FL is projected to slowly turn northeastward and strengthen to a
strong tropical storm with 70 mph toward the northwest Florida coast
by sunset Thu, and track northeast just off the southeast Atlantic
coast on Friday. This tropical system should keep its rainfall well
southeast of IL. But if traveling to Florida or the southeast
Atlantic coastal region, monitor later forecasts and statements from
the National Hurricane Center (NHC)


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Aside from some MVFR fog overnight, the bulk of the 12Z TAF valid
time should be VFR across the central Illinois terminals. A weak
cold front sinking through the area Wednesday should trigger a few
storms, but the expected coverage is too low to carry at this


.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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