Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 011752
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1252 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING...BUT NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN UPDATE. PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...ALTHOUGH
15Z/10AM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A THINNING OF THE
OVERCAST ALONG/NORTH OF A RANTOUL TO RUSHVILLE LINE. DESPITE A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...HRRR INSISTS THAT SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...SEE NO REASON
TO ARGUE WITH THAT SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

TODAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED IN ONTARIO CANADA...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO TEXAS. CHILLY NORTHEAST FLOW FROM THE HIGH
WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY...WITH THE HELP OF
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST SOUTHEAST OF ILLINOIS FROM OHIO TO ARKANSAS. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THAT FRONT...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN PERIODS OF SPRINKLES THIS MORNING FOR OUR COUNTIES
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SHELBYVILLE TO PARIS. MEASURABLE RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER...JUST TRACE AMOUNTS.

NORTHEAST FLOW USUALLY PROVIDES A DRYING INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...BUT
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS TODAY. AREAS NORTH OF PEORIA TO
BLOOMINGTON WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANY PARTIAL
SUNSHINE...AS DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN INTO THE CLOUD LAYER.
DESPITE THE PREVAILING CLOUDS...SOME WARMING IS EXPECTED TODAY
OVER YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

PROMINENT UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL MAKE IT
TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL SUPPRESS ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW FROM MAKING IT THIS FAR TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL OOZE EASTWARD DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...AND BY FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AS AN UPPER WAVE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST ECMWF WAS NOT AVAILABLE
FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT THE OLD ONE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS IN POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO FORM BY LATE FRIDAY
AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS THE ILLINOIS RIVER LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES. TIMING
OF THE PRECIP DEPARTURE ON SATURDAY IS LESS CERTAIN...BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A STEADY WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY...WITH 80 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS 80-85 LIKELY THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE OVERCAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE.
DESPITE SOME AREAS OF CLEARING N/NW OF KPIA AND E OF
KCMI...NEGATIVE CU-RULE SUGGESTS RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER. END RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. RAPID REFRESH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CLOUDS SLOWLY
LIFTING AND DISSIPATING BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AS A RESULT...HAVE INTRODUCED VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIA BY 20Z THEN
FURTHER SOUTHEAST TO KDEC AND KCMI BY AROUND 02Z. AFTER
THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10KT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10KT BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARNES



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