Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 232315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
615 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A cold front pushing just south of I-70 at mid afternoon will
move through se IL next few hours. The remnants of tropical storm
Cindy was over western KY and tracking ne over the Ohio river
valley this afternoon. Scattered convection will diminish over
southeast IL late this afternoon with dry conditions across CWA by
00Z/7 pm. Much drier air ushering into central IL on breezy
northerly winds, with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s from I-55 nw
while muggy upper 60s to mid 70s southeast of a Rantoul to
Taylorville line. Lows overnight will range from 55F to 61F with
coolest readings nw of IL river and mildest near Lawrenceville.

A 554 dm 500 mb low over southeast Saskatchewan will dive se into
west central WI by 00z/7 pm Sat, keeping its clouds and showers
north of central IL. A nice early summer day for central IL on
Saturday with mostly sunny skies and breezy nw winds with cooler
highs in the middle to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The upper level low will track east across the Great Lakes Sat
night and Sunday keeping its showers north/ne of CWA and also
keeping below normal temperatures into early next week with the
upper level trof extending into IL. Cooler lows Sat and Sunday
night in the low to mid 50s. Mostly sunny skies Sunday though will
see more cumulus clouds northern CWA, with isolated convection
staying nne of central IL. Highs Sunday of 72-78F, coolest from
I-74 north.

Isolated convection possible north of I-70 Monday afternoon into
early Monday evening with a weak short wave diving se through
central IL. Highs Monday in the low to mid 70s, which is a good 10
degrees below normal (mid 80s) for late June. Large upper level
trof will shift east of the Ohio valley toward the mid Atlantic
coast by sunset Tue with upper level ridge moving into the central
plains on Tue. Temps modifying into the upper 70s (near 80F sw
CWA) for highs Tue. Most of CWA will remain dry on Tue night and
Wed with just slight pops nw of Peoria late Tue night into Wed.
Warmer highs in the low to mid 80s on Wed, though not too humid
yet as dewpoints rise into the upper 50s/lower 60s Wed afternoon.

More unsettled wx pattern occurs from Wed night through Friday.
Surface low pressure tracking north of Upper MI Wed night with
cold front extending sw to another low pressure moving into
western KS. This to spread chances of showers and thunderstorms se
into central IL during Wed night especially after midnight.
Central IL will stay on the warm side of the frontal boundary
Thu/Fri with warm and more humid air moving into the area and
highs in the 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Much drier NW flow following today`s cold front will bring mostly
clear skies following lingering cirrus and some scattered cumulus
this evening. VFR conditions can be expected the next 24 hours.
Winds NW and dropping to 5-10 kt range overnight, then increasing
after 16-18Z Saturday. Expect winds around NW15G20KT Saturday
afternoon, along with few-sct afternoon cumulus clouds around 5000
ft AGL.




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