Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 110952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
352 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017
Weak ridging moving through central IL this morning, resulting in
some variability in the winds, but generally more southerly flow
at the surface. Aloft however, the northwesterly aloft continues,
as it will for much of the forecast period. As a result, the
majority of the seven day forecast is a series of small clipper
waves, with many of them bringing the bulk of the precip threat
to the north. Central IL will likely see a series of chances for
flurries and variable temperatures through the week.

The first chance for flurries/sprinkles will come this afternoon
and evening as a quick wave moves through the region. Blustery
winds will accompany the wave as well. Not only an increased
pressure gradient to increase the sustained winds, but winds aloft
increase as well. Between some mixing and just adding enough
turbulence just off the surface, gusts should continue through the
overnight. Behind the wave, a cold air mass moves into the
Midwest, dropping the temperatures tonight into the upper
teens/lower 20s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Northwesterly flow continues at the surface and aloft through the
first couple days of the work week. Tuesday, the cold air mass
will keep the highs in the upper 20s/near 30. Tuesday nights temps
drop into the teens, with the coldest air to the northeast as the
pattern shifts again. Next chances for snow now showing up in the
model blends Wednesday, mainly to the north, and flurries.
Remainder of the forecast is mainly dry, with the potential to see
some flurries added in subsequent runs as the pattern shifts from
a northwesterly flow to a quasi zonal by the end of the week. With
the moderating amplification, the temperatures moderate as well
through the weekend, milder across the board.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

VFR conditions expected until around 00Z Tuesday, then MVFR cigs
and a few -shra/-shsn possible as a low pressure system crosses
the area. Winds light and variable overnight tonight as a high
pressure ridge axis crosses over central IL and moves east,
followed by increasing south wind as low pressure approaches.
Winds expected to increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to around 20
kts after 18z Monday. Winds shifting to NW around 00Z and
remaining brisk...around 15 kts.




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