Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 191801
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
101 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Updated the forecast to remove early morning patchy fog wording.
Otherwise rest of the forecast looks on track with another nice
day unfolding. Ample sunshine again today with a bit milder highs
in the mid to upper 70s. South to southeast winds of 7-15 mph with
a few gusts near 20 mph. 1031 mb Canadian high pressure over
southeast Quebec and northern New England will drift se off the
New England coast by sunset and ridging sw into the mid MS river
valley. This will continue to influence central IL`s weather today
with another fair weather day with temperatures warming closer to
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Canadian high pressure will continue to move eastward today, but the
ridge will remain over the area through most of the day. Some patchy
light fog is still possible early this morning, so have included
this; but just for 12Z. After 12Z, conditions will improve rapidly.
Other than that, dry weather with sunny skies is expected today. Winds
should be light from the east to southeast and then become southerly
during the afternoon hours. Temperatures in the middle 70s by this
afternoon continues to look like a good forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Main concern during this part of the forecast is with severe weather
potential Saturday afternoon and evening.

Shortwave currently over western Montana will start to dig more on
Saturday as it moves across the Dakotas. Cold front ahead of this
wave should start moving into northwest Illinois during the
afternoon. Nice southwest flow ahead of this front to draw a decent
amount of moisture into the region, with dew points rising to near
70 by early afternoon west of I-55. Latest SPC Day2 convective
outlook has a slight risk of severe weather over roughly the
northern half of the state. CAPE values across the northwest third
of the CWA expected to rise into the 2000-2500 J/kg range as the
moisture increases, with decent 0-6km shear values of 35-45 knots
progged by most of the models. Have added some small PoP`s to the
far northwest Saturday morning, but main show should be during the
afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and some hail are the main
concerns. Temperatures on Saturday expected to reach the 80-85
degree range most areas.

Remainder of the forecast period expected to be quiet, as a surface
high slowly drifts from the Midwest into New England. Upper low that
will be spinning off the California coast for a couple days expected
to open up and eject northeast early next week, although latest long
range guidance tracks this feature northeast through Minnesota by
Thursday and currently looks like it should bypass us.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR conditions should continue across the central IL airports
through 18Z/1 pm Saturday. Fair skies to prevail into tonight with
scattered to broken mid/high clouds above 10k ft arriving later
tonight and Saturday morning. 1030 mb high pressure over New
England to drift off the New England coast by this evening and
continue the fair weather into tonight. Dry conditions should
prevail through midday Saturday with showers and thunderstorms
staying nw of PIA/IL river Sat morning. A cold front over the
Dakotas to move se into central IA by early Sat afternoon and keep
chances of TS nw of central IL through 18Z/Sat. SSE winds around
10 kts with gusts 14-18 kts to be south 6-9 kts tonight and
veer SW 10-15 kts by 14Z/Sat with few gusts near 20 kts by midday
Sat.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...07





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